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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tim Membrey is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +4.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 22, 1:50PM UTC
AFL

Tim Membrey

Collingwood

+4.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -588 (1.17)
+4.0% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Thu 23 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
89.4%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+4.0%
Predicted Value
1.5 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals89.4%85.5%1.12+4.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Tim Membrey (Collingwood) Over 0.5 Goals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Folks, when it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in the AFL, Tim Membrey stands tall as a prime contender. As Collingwood faces off against Adelaide, Membrey, with a scorching average of 1.8 goals in his last five away clashes, is a real threat in the forward line. His recent form showcases precision too, boasting a solid goal accuracy of 64.0%. When Membrey's in the mix, he's not just about goals; he's a playmaker, with an average of 5.4 score involvements in his last five away games. Facing Adelaide, who he's previously netted an average of 1 goal against, Membrey's hitting the field with momentum, riding a five-game scoring streak. The data paints a clear picture – back Membrey to fire and split the middle at least once in this showdown.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs Adelaide CrowsO 0.5 -588+4.0% edge
80%hit L10 O 0.5
2.6avg goals L5
Away1.8vs Adelaide Crows0.8Season best5
O 0.580%
O 1.570%
O 2.540%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)8 / 10 hit
1010521312

Tim Membrey has gone over 0.5 goals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 2.6 goals, best 5). Current line: Over 0.5 at -588, model edge +4.0%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Goals 0.5 Over -769 ✗ MISS
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Goals 0.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Tim Membrey (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tim Membrey is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows on Thursday 23 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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