Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tim Membrey is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 56 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 56%, implied 67%, edge +5.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 1, 9:46AM UTC
AFL
Tim Membrey
Collingwood
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 9.5
-204 (1.49) · $100→$149
+5.9% Edge
Collingwood Magpies
@
Western Bulldogs
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 28 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
73 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 73.0% · the book's price implies 67.1% · gap +5.9%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 73.0% | 55.8% | 67.1% | 1.79 | +5.9% |
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Tim Membrey (Collingwood) Over 9.5 Disposals (-204)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Tim Membrey stands out for the upcoming clash against the Western Bulldogs at the MCG. With an L5 average of 15.4 disposals per away game and an impressive 61.2% disposal efficiency, Membrey has been a consistent performer on the road. His knack for finding the footy with 9.8 kicks and 5.6 handballs per game indicates his involvement in the play. Against the Bulldogs specifically, he's maintained a solid average of 13 disposals. With a recent away hit rate of 5 out of 6 games, Membrey is in good form to surpass the 9.5 disposal line. Expect him to impact the game and rack up the possessions to deliver on the Over.
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Season averages (2024)
Tim Membrey averaged 11.6 disposals, 1.6 goals and 5.2 marks per game across 19 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Carlton), Tim Membrey recorded 9 disposals and 2 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 25 Aug 24 | Carlton | 9 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Geelong Cats | 19 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Aug 24 | Richmond | 15 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 4 Aug 24 | Brisbane Lions | 13 | 1 | 8 | 2 |
| 27 Jul 24 | Essendon | 11 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 20 Jul 24 | West Coast Eagles | 23 | 5 | 10 | 7 |
| 13 Jul 24 | Adelaide Crows | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 7 Jul 24 | Sydney Swans | 8 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 8 Jun 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 9 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 1 Jun 24 | West Coast Eagles | 12 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
Tim Membrey (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tim Membrey is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.9% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs on Friday 28 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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