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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tim Membrey is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 89%, for a model edge of +0.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 5:28PM UTC
AFL

Tim Membrey

Collingwood

+0.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -833 (1.12) · $100→$112
+0.2% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 6:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
89.4%
Implied Probability
89.3%
Model Edge
+0.2%
Predicted Value
1.5 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals89.4%89.3%1.12+0.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Tim Membrey (Collingwood) Over 0.5 Goals (-833)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

If you're eyeing a tasty player prop bet for the upcoming clash between the West Coast Eagles and the Collingwood Magpies, Tim Membrey should be front and center in your considerations. This sharpshooter has been on a tear lately, notching an impressive average of 2 goals per game over his last five outings. When facing off against the Eagles away, Membrey has been particularly lethal, averaging 2 goals per game and showcasing a solid 52% goal accuracy. With his recent form showing a hunger for goals and a knack for finding the big sticks, Membrey's current hot streak of 3 consecutive hits in away games speaks volumes about his ability to make an impact on the scoreboard. So when the action kicks off at Optus Stadium, placing your faith in Membrey to snag one or more goals is a smart punt that the stats fully endorse.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Season averages (2024)

Tim Membrey averaged 11.6 disposals, 1.6 goals and 5.2 marks per game across 19 games in 2024.

11.6
Disposals
1.6
Goals
5.2
Marks
1.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Tim Membrey has cleared 9.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.580%
o10.580%
o11.550%
o13.530%
o14.530%
o16.520%
o17.520%
o18.50%
o20.50%
o21.50%
o23.50%
o24.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Tim Membrey is averaging 13.8 disposals per game over his last 5 and 13.6 in away games, including his recent form against West Coast Eagles.

13.8
Disp · Overall
13.6
Disp · Away
13.6
Disp · vs West Coast Eagles
2.0
Goals · Overall
2.0
Goals · Away
2.2
Goals · vs West Coast Eagles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Carlton), Tim Membrey recorded 9 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Carlton9253
17 Aug 24Geelong Cats19180
11 Aug 24Richmond15351
4 Aug 24Brisbane Lions13182
27 Jul 24Essendon11261
20 Jul 24West Coast Eagles235107
13 Jul 24Adelaide Crows4002
7 Jul 24Sydney Swans8150
8 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS9023
1 Jun 24West Coast Eagles12162
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ West Coast Eagles Goals 0.5 Over -833 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Goals 0.5 Over -769 ✗ MISS
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -556 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Goals Pending
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Goals Pending

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About This Player

Tim Membrey (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tim Membrey is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.2% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs West Coast Eagles on Sunday 9 August at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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