Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for George Hewett is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 51 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 51%, implied 48%, edge +11.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 9:11PM UTC
AFL
George Hewett
Carlton
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
+108 (2.08) · $100→$208
+11.3% Edge
Fremantle Dockers
@
Carlton Blues
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 22 Aug, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
59 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 59.4% · the book's price implies 48.1% · gap +11.3%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 59.4% | 51.2% | 48.1% | 1.95 | +11.3% |
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George Hewett (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (+108)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Hewett's home form is the key driver here. At Marvel Stadium across his last five home games, he's averaging 1.4 goals with 2.2 shots at goal and a 48.3% accuracy rate — numbers that comfortably support a model projection of 0.7 goals against a line of just 0.5. That projection implies a 58–60% chance of him kicking at least one, yet sportsbet is pricing this at 48.1% implied probability, giving us an 11.3% model edge at $2.08.
The broader context adds confidence: his home hit rate sits at 4/7 over the last seven, and his overall strike rate across 12 games is 8/12 — two-thirds of the time he's finding the big sticks. His 3.4 inside-50s per home game and solid score involvements (6.8) suggest he's getting chances. The Fremantle matchup is the one caveat — his record against them is thin — but the home-ground edge and shot volume make this a legitimate play.
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Season averages (2024)
George Hewett averaged 23.4 disposals, 0.3 goals and 2.8 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.
Hit-rate ladder: Disposals
George Hewett has cleared 19.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.
o19.590%
o20.590%
o22.590%
o24.580%
o26.540%
o27.540%
o29.530%
o31.510%
o33.50%
o34.50%
o36.50%
o38.50%
Home / away and opponent splits
George Hewett is averaging 28.4 disposals per game over his last 5.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), George Hewett recorded 33 disposals and 1 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 7 Sep 24 | Brisbane Lions | 33 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 25 Aug 24 | St Kilda | 32 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 18 Aug 24 | West Coast Eagles | 35 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 Aug 24 | Hawthorn | 21 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| 3 Aug 24 | Collingwood | 32 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 26 Jul 24 | Port Adelaide | 23 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| 21 Jul 24 | North Melbourne | 22 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 30 Jun 24 | Richmond | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 Jun 24 | Geelong Cats | 24 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 Jun 24 | Essendon | 23 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
George Hewett (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for George Hewett is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.3% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Carlton Blues on Saturday 22 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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