George Hewett (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (+108)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Hewett's home form is the key driver here. At Marvel Stadium across his last five home games, he's averaging 1.4 goals with 2.2 shots at goal and a 48.3% accuracy rate — numbers that comfortably support a model projection of 0.7 goals against a line of just 0.5. That projection implies a 58–60% chance of him kicking at least one, yet sportsbet is pricing this at 48.1% implied probability, giving us an 11.3% model edge at $2.08.
The broader context adds confidence: his home hit rate sits at 4/7 over the last seven, and his overall strike rate across 12 games is 8/12 — two-thirds of the time he's finding the big sticks. His 3.4 inside-50s per home game and solid score involvements (6.8) suggest he's getting chances. The Fremantle matchup is the one caveat — his record against them is thin — but the home-ground edge and shot volume make this a legitimate play.