Francis Evans (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-227)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Evans is a genuine play here at 1.44, with the model projecting 1.1 goals against a line of just 0.5 — a 6.4% edge over the implied probability of 69.4%. The case rests on his away form, which is the more relevant split given Carlton travel to Marvel Stadium. Across his last four away games he's hit this line three times, averaging exactly 1.0 goal per game away from home with 2.0 shots at goal and a mark inside 50 per contest — the underlying volume is there. His overall current hit streak sits at three straight games, and he's gone 3/3 across his last three overall, suggesting he's in decent touch in front of goal. The one concern worth flagging is a 0-goal average across his last five against the Bulldogs specifically, so this isn't a slam dunk — but the model's projection and recent away hit rate make it a credible edge worth taking.