Francis Evans (Carlton) Over 11.5 Disposals (-179)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Francis Evans is a compelling play here, and the away context is the key unlocking factor. In his last five games away from home, Evans has averaged 16 disposals — well clear of this 11.5 line — hitting the over in four of those five outings. That 4/5 away hit rate aligns neatly with the model's projection of 13.8, which sits 2.3 disposals above the line and generates a 12.9% edge against the implied 64.1% probability baked into the $1.56 price.
What's driving those away numbers is the balance of his work — 10.4 kicks and 5.6 handballs per game on the road, backed by 313 metres gained and a 69% disposal efficiency. His contested possession average of 6.4 away suggests he's not just getting soft ball either. The L5 vs Geelong figures (6.5–7 disposals) are modest, but his broader away form comfortably overwhelms that concern. Solid edge, worth backing.