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The latest Bet Better model pick for Francis Evans is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +10.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 30, 4:28AM UTC
AFL

Francis Evans

Carlton

+10.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -169 (1.59)
+10.7% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.6%
Implied Probability
62.9%
Model Edge
+10.7%
Predicted Value
1.0 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.6%62.9%1.36+10.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Francis Evans (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-169)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Francis Evans of the Carlton Blues is a solid choice. Lately, he's been knocking on the door, averaging 0.8 goals in his last five home games. Plus, facing off against the Brisbane Lions, he's even more likely to split the middle, averaging 1 goal in his last five matchups against them. With an overall hit rate of 4 goals in his last 6 games, Evans is showing consistency. His recent form suggests he's primed to capitalize on his opportunities, especially with an average of 2.4 shots on goal in his last five home games. At decimal odds of 1.59, the implied probability of him bagging a goal sits at 62.9%, making this Over 0.5 goals bet on Evans a compelling choice for this Saturday's showdown at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs Brisbane LionsO 0.5 -169+10.7% edge
50%hit L10 O 0.5
1avg goals L5
Home0.8vs Brisbane Lions0.7Season best3
O 0.550%
O 1.530%
O 2.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)5 / 10 hit
1102021000

Francis Evans has gone over 0.5 goals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1 goals, best 3). Current line: Over 0.5 at -169, model edge +10.7%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
25 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Goals 0.5 Over -227 ✗ MISS
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -213 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Francis Evans (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Francis Evans is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues on Saturday 1 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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