Today's Top EPL Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Sunday 09/20 (Kevin Danso Highlights): Smart Player Wagers

As Bournemouth gears up to host Liverpool, keep a close eye on Adam Smith and his potential for Over 0.5 shots. While his recent averages might seem modest, with only 0.2 shots per game both overall and away, there's more to the story. Smith plays a critical role in Bournemouth’s attacking setup, particularly against aggressive teams like Liverpool, which can open up space for defenders to join the attack. Liverpool’s high press often forces opponents to adapt their game, and this could create opportunities for Smith to test the keeper. Historically, when the Cherries face top-tier opposition, players like him tend to step up. Plus, with a model edge suggesting he has a solid chance to sneak in a shot, the value here is undeniable. The odds are favorable, and a single strike could land us in the winner's circle. Don’t sleep on Smith to break through in this pivotal clash!

Kevin Danso (Sunderland) Over 0.5 Shots (+140)

As Manchester City welcomes Sunderland, all eyes will be on Kevin Danso, who seems poised to break out in this matchup. Although his recent stats show a modest average of just 0.2 shots per game, there's an intriguing angle to consider: his current hit streak of one suggests that he’s finding opportunities that may not have translated into shots earlier. Given City's attacking dominance, expect Sunderland to spend much of the game on the back foot, allowing Danso to exploit any gaps. The model predicts a slightly optimistic 0.67 shots for him, hinting that he could be in for a busier afternoon than usual. With Sunderland likely to be stretched defensively, this could be the perfect moment for Danso to pull the trigger, making the Over 0.5 shots a compelling play. Don’t overlook the potential for a surprise performance from him in what promises to be an engaging encounter.

Luke Shaw (Manchester United) Over 0.5 Shots (+140)

As Manchester United heads to Fulham, keep an eye on Luke Shaw for the Over 0.5 total shots prop. While his recent away average sits at just 0.4, Shaw has been more adventurous lately, evidenced by his overall hit rate of 3 out of the last 5 matches. In fact, he’s managed 0.6 shots per game overall, showing that he’s not shy about joining the attack when the opportunity arises. Fulham’s defense can be inviting, especially for a full-back like Shaw, who often finds himself in advanced positions. He’s coming off a match where he’s in a rhythm, which could see him rediscover his shooting boots. With a model prediction nudging up to 0.66, the numbers suggest he’s got a solid chance of surpassing that half-shot mark. In a high-stakes match like this, expect Shaw to take his chances—making this prop worth a look.

Calvin Bassey (Fulham) Over 0.5 Shots on Target (+600)

As Fulham hosts Manchester United, all eyes should be on Calvin Bassey and his potential to make a mark in the shots on target department. While his recent stats may suggest a slow start, with just 0.2 shots on target per game overall, the atmosphere at Craven Cottage could ignite something special. The match against a high-caliber opponent like United often opens up opportunities, and Bassey’s role as a dynamic defender could see him pushing forward more than usual. With the home crowd behind him, he may find those chances to test the keeper. Historically, players elevate their game in front of their fans, and with Manchester United’s defense sometimes shaky, it’s the perfect stage for Bassey to break through. This matchup is ripe for surprises, and a sprinkle on Bassey going Over 0.5 shots on target could just pay off handsomely.

Luke Shaw (Manchester United) Over 1.5 Shots (+900)

When Manchester United heads to Craven Cottage, all eyes are on Luke Shaw, who might just be ready to surprise us. While his recent stats show a modest average of 0.4 shots away, there’s potential lurking beneath the surface. Shaw has a knack for joining the attack, and with United facing a Fulham side that often struggles to contain overlapping full-backs, he could find himself in more advanced positions than usual. The game script suggests that United will dominate possession, giving Shaw ample opportunity to let loose. With an implied probability of hitting over 1.5 shots significantly underestimating his potential, this could be the moment he breaks out of his recent slump. In a high-stakes clash, look for Shaw to step up and make his mark, turning those numbers into a bold performance that could see him surpass that 1.5 shots line effortlessly.

That is the model's read on today's EPL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.