Today's EPL Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Odds for ALL Games on Tuesday 09/22

Tottenham Hotspur faces a struggling Coventry City side, and the recent trends strongly favor Spurs to secure a comfortable win. Despite a shaky home record, scoring just 0.8 goals on average at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, their xG stats indicate they’re creating chances, averaging 16 shots per game. Coventry, on the other hand, is mired in a rough patch, with only one away victory in their last five matches and a meager scoring average of 0.8, revealing their struggle to find the net consistently. With Spurs desperate to bounce back and make a statement, the expectation is they'll dominate possession and convert opportunities against a Coventry defense that has been leaky. Given these factors, taking Tottenham at -1.5 on the handicap seems not only reasonable but promising, setting the stage for a decisive home win.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City: Tottenham Hotspur Draw No Bet (-556)

Tottenham Hotspur might be struggling lately, but they’re still a formidable side compared to Coventry City. With a home record that, while shaky, includes a recent draw against a tough opponent, they’ve shown resilience on their turf. Their xG numbers are a red flag, but they’ve been creating chances, averaging 14.4 shots per game at home. Conversely, Coventry’s away form is dire, with just one win in five matches and a meager scoring average of 0.8 goals per game. Given Tottenham's historical dominance and the fact they’re at home, it’s hard to see them dropping points against a Coventry side that’s also struggling for form. This makes the Draw No Bet market on Spurs a savvy choice. If they can find their rhythm, they should secure at least a win or a refund on the bet if things don’t go as planned.

Coventry City vs Newcastle United: Under 2.5 Total Goals (+124)

As Coventry City prepares to host Newcastle United, the statistics suggest a rather tepid affair in terms of scoring. Coventry's recent form at home has seen them average just 1.6 goals, while their opponents, Newcastle, have struggled away, netting only 0.8 goals in their last five outings. Both teams display a concerning lack of attacking potency, with expected goals (xG) figures pointing to minimal goal-scoring threats—Coventry averaging 0 and Newcastle at an uninspiring low as well. Defensively, both sides have allowed around 2 goals per game, but with Coventry's recent home performances leaning towards tight encounters and Newcastle’s inability to convert chances on the road, it’s reasonable to expect fewer than 3 goals in this matchup. Betting on the Under 2.5 total goals seems a sensible play given these trends.

Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama: Both Teams To Score: Yes (-145)

When Botafogo hosts Vasco da Gama, expect a goal fest despite their recent struggles. Both teams have shown vulnerabilities in defense, with Botafogo allowing an average of 1.6 goals per game in their last five outings, and Vasco not faring much better, conceding an average of 2 goals. Historically, this matchup favors scoring; Botafogo boasts a solid 4-1-0 record against Vasco in their last five meetings. Although both teams have low recent xG figures, the pressure of a classic rivalry often ignites unexpected performances. Botafogo's home stats reveal they manage an average of 0.8 goals at home, while Vasco has been marginally better on the road with 0.6. With both sides likely to push forward, the smart play is on both teams to score. The odds are in your favor, making this a compelling choice for savvy bettors.

Troyes vs Marseille: Marseille -0.75 Goal Handicap (+110)

As Troyes prepares to host Marseille, the stats tell a clear story. Troyes has struggled at home lately, managing just one win in their last five matches, while their defense has leaked an alarming average of 2.2 goals per game at home. Conversely, Marseille has shown a glimmer of resilience, with two wins in their last five outings, and they’ve historically dominated this matchup, winning three of their last four encounters. While both teams have had lackluster attacking stats recently, Marseille's superior firepower (averaging 1.8 goals over their last five) could exploit Troyes' frailties. With an xG disparity hinting at Marseille's potential to create chances, taking them at -0.75 on the handicap looks promising. They have the momentum and historical edge, and with Troyes faltering at home, expect Marseille to secure a solid victory here.

That is the model's read on today's EPL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.