Today's EPL Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Odds for ALL Games on Tuesday 09/22

Tottenham Hotspur is gearing up to face Coventry City, and the trends suggest a favorable outcome for Spurs, particularly with a -1.5 handicap. Despite a rocky home record recently, Spurs have shown signs of attacking intent, averaging a solid 16 shots per game at home, though they’ve struggled to convert those chances, averaging just 0.8 goals. Coventry, on the other hand, has been lackluster on the road, only managing one goal in their last five away matches. They’ve conceded an average of 2 goals per game, which spells trouble against a Spurs side seeking a return to form. With a superior xG and a home advantage, expect Tottenham to dominate possession and create enough opportunities to secure at least a two-goal margin against a Coventry team that’s been shaky defensively. It’s a calculated risk that could pay off handsomely.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City: Tottenham Hotspur Draw No Bet (-556)

As Tottenham Hotspur prepares to host Coventry City, the weight of recent form leans heavily in favor of the home side. Despite a patchy home record lately, Spurs have shown flashes of resilience, averaging 16 shots per game over the last five matches. Their xG numbers, though stagnant at home, suggest they are creating opportunities, even if the finishing hasn’t been sharp. Coventry’s struggle is evident, particularly away, where they’ve managed just one win in their last five and have averaged less than a goal per match. With Spurs desperate to turn the tide at home and Coventry struggling to find their footing, backing Tottenham in the Draw No Bet market feels prudent. The odds reflect an 81.2% chance of a Spurs win, and given the current trajectory of both teams, it’s hard to see anything but a home victory.

Coventry City vs Newcastle United: Under 2.5 Total Goals (+124)

As Coventry City prepares to host Newcastle United, the betting landscape hints at a tight contest, particularly in the goals department. Both teams have struggled offensively in recent outings, with Coventry averaging a mere 0.8 goals over their last five matches, and Newcastle not faring much better with 1.4 goals during the same span. Delving deeper into the numbers, Coventry's home form shows a concerning trend, averaging just 1.6 goals scored and conceding 1.6, suggesting a stalemate is on the cards. Both sides also have below-par expected goals (xG) figures, indicating that scoring opportunities are few and far between. Given these factors, betting on under 2.5 total goals seems prudent, as both teams are likely to cancel each other out in what could be a gritty, defensive encounter.

Coventry City vs Newcastle United: Under 2.5 Total Goals (+124)

As Coventry City prepares to host Newcastle United, the stats tell a compelling story for predicting a low-scoring affair. Coventry has struggled to find the back of the net lately, averaging just 0.8 goals in their last five matches, and their xG numbers reflect their inability to create meaningful chances. Meanwhile, Newcastle, despite their attacking reputation, has also faltered away from home, managing only 0.8 goals per game in their last five away outings. Both teams are showing defensive resilience, with Coventry and Newcastle averaging around 2 goals conceded in recent matches. With an implied probability of just 42.7% for over 2.5 goals, the expectation for a cagey, tactical encounter seems realistic. Given these trends and the lack of firepower in recent performances, betting on the total goals to stay under 2.5 could prove to be a savvy choice.

Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama: Both Teams To Score: Yes (-145)

When Botafogo faces Vasco da Gama, the tension is palpable. Historically, Botafogo has dominated this fixture, winning four of their last five encounters, yet recent form tells a different story. At home, they've struggled, managing just two draws in their last five games, while Vasco has shown resilience, albeit inconsistently, with two wins in the same stretch. Both teams have been involved in matches where goals are a common theme. Botafogo's home games have averaged about 1.6 goals against, hinting at vulnerabilities at the back. Meanwhile, Vasco’s away performances suggest they can find the net, averaging 1.2 goals even as they concede 2. With both teams showing cracks defensively and a tendency to score, it’s hard to envision a scenario where neither finds the back of the net. Thus, betting on both teams to score feels like a smart move in this fierce rivalry.

That is the model's read on today's EPL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.