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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sean Manaea is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 90%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +28.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 18, 9:00AM UTC
MLB

Sean Manaea

MLB

+28.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 5.5 -159 (1.63)
+28.7% Edge
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 8:05PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Model Probability
90.1%
Implied Probability
61.3%
Model Edge
+28.7%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts90.1%61.3%1.11+28.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games3/5

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AI Analysis

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Sean Manaea (NA) Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-159)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Phillies host the Mets this Saturday, all eyes will be on Sean Manaea’s strikeout potential. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance this season, recent trends indicate he might not reach the 5.5 strikeouts line. In his last few outings against teams with high-contact lineups, such as the Mets, Manaea has struggled to rack up K's, averaging just under three strikeouts per game. The Mets have been particularly adept at putting the ball in play, as evidenced by their low strikeout rates against left-handed pitchers. With the Phillies’ lineup presenting similar challenges, it’s likely Manaea will find himself navigating more balls in play than swinging strikes. Given these dynamics, betting on the under feels prudent; it aligns with his recent performance trends and the Mets' approach at the plate. Expect a game where the focus shifts more to run support than strikeout dominance.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Pitcher - StrikeoutsUpcoming gameU 5.5 -159+28.7% edge

Sean Manaea MLB strikeouts. Current line U 5.5 at -159 (+28.7% model edge).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
29 Jun 26 New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays Pitcher - Strikeouts 3.5 Under +118 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Sean Manaea is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sean Manaea is Under 5.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +28.7% on this pick. Their next game is New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday 18 July at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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