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Model picks & player props
MLB
loanDepot Park, Miami
Indoor
Wed 9 Sep 2026, 6:41 PM ET
New York Mets
VS
Miami Marlins

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 56 markets for New York Mets vs Miami Marlins and backs Miami Marlins hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $182.

20
Game markets graded
36
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
You bet$10 If it wins$18.20Best price-122
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win48.5%
The price says53.2%

The model graded 56 markets for New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $182 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 9 Sep 2026, 6:41 PM ET at loanDepot Park.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Miami Marlins Lean48% chance -122
Spread Members only High87% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only High62% chance Members
Total Runs Members only Lean56% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot22% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean45% chance Members
Batter - Walks × 1 prop Leanup to 52% Members
Batter - RBIs × 2 props Highup to 77% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 11 props Highup to 69% Members
Batter - Home Runs × 1 prop Long-shotup to 23% Members
Batter - Hits × 12 props Highup to 60% Members
Batter - Runs Scored × 3 props Leanup to 43% Members
Batter - Stolen Bases × 3 props Long-shotup to 10% Members
Batter - Doubles × 1 prop Highup to 85% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

New York Mets and Miami Marlins last met on Wed 9 Sep 2026: New York Mets won 15-14. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
Miami Marlins
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 36 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 67,257+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Miami MarlinsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Miami MarlinsMoneylineThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Jared Young 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut
  • Jonathan Pintaro RPOut
  • Christian Scott SPOut
  • Daniel Duarte RPOut
  • Robert Stock SPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut

Miami Marlins

  • Tyler Zuber RPOut
  • Jakob Marsee CFOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut
  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • Pete Fairbanks RPOut
  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Owen Caissie RFOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut
Availability updated Oct 8, 2:49PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Miami Marlins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Owen Caissie Batter - Walks
Graham Pauley Batter - RBIs
Graham Pauley Batter - Total Bases
Graham Pauley Batter - Home Runs
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Hits

+ 36 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMiami MarlinsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.6L5 RA2.6Home L53-2vs New York Mets L51-4

Miami Marlins moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.6 runs/gm.

Run LineMiami Marlins run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.6L5 RA2.6Home L53-2vs New York Mets L51-4

Miami Marlins spread form: last five 3-2, 3.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Miami Marlins vs New York MetsNo line posted

Miami Marlins total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMiami Marlins team totalNo line posted
3.4runs we expect
L5 RF3.6L5 RA2.6Home L53-2vs New York Mets L51-4

Miami Marlins team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.6 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins — what the model found

Our model graded 56 betting markets for New York Mets at Miami Marlins — 20 on the game itself and 36 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
36
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 56 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 55 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Miami Marlins — recent results

Miami Marlins have won 3 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5.

Miami Marlins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3ATLHome
L3–8ATLHome
W3–0ATLHome
L1–2CHCAway
W3–2CHCAway
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–6WSHAway
W7–1WSHAway
L6–7WSHAway
W7–2TEXAway
L1–3TEXAway

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Miami Marlins are scoring 2.6 runs per game (2-3) while New York Mets are at 2.8 (3-2); Miami Marlins pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 2.4 for New York Mets.

2.6
Miami Marlins runs/G
2.8
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesMiami MarlinsNew York Mets
Runs / game2.62.8
Hits / game2.23.2
Home runs / game0.40.0
Walks drawn / game1.21.8
Batter K / game1.62.6
Earned runs allowed / game2.22.4
Pitching K / game1.83.2
Walks allowed / game1.60.2
L5 record2-33-2

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Miami Marlins won 3, New York Mets won 7.

DateMiami MarlinsNew York MetsWinner
Sep 91415New York Mets
Sep 857New York Mets
Sep 749New York Mets
Aug 220Miami Marlins
Aug 162Miami Marlins
Jul 3152Miami Marlins
Jul 3024New York Mets
May 31110New York Mets
May 3016New York Mets
May 2979New York Mets

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Miami Marlins
PlayerStatus
Tyler Zuber RPOUT
Jakob Marsee CFOUT
Robby Snelling SPOUT
Adam Mazur SPOUT
Anthony Bender RPOUT
Pete Fairbanks RPOUT
Max Meyer SPOUT
Owen Caissie RFOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Jared Young 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Jonathan Pintaro RPOUT
Christian Scott SPOUT
Daniel Duarte RPOUT
Robert Stock SPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins — model preview

Our New York Mets at Miami Marlins prediction for September 10, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 10, 2026 our model has run New York Mets at Miami Marlins and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Otto Lopez (MIA) Under 0.5 RBIs (-278), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Miami Marlins in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Marlins, or as Marlins vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 9 September 2026 at loanDepot Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 36 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins head-to-head record

Final scores · 76 meetings on record
New York Mets 41–31 across the last 76 meetings · 4 draws · these games average 8.3 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Wed 9 Sep 2026, New York Mets at Miami Marlins: the Mets won 15-14.

DateGameScoreWinner
9 Sep 2026New York Mets @ Miami Marlins14–15New York Mets
8 Sep 2026New York Mets @ Miami Marlins5–7New York Mets
7 Sep 2026New York Mets @ Miami Marlins4–9New York Mets
2 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets0–2Miami Marlins
1 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets2–6Miami Marlins
31 Jul 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets2–5Miami Marlins
30 Jul 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets4–2New York Mets
31 May 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets10–1New York Mets
30 May 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets6–1New York Mets
29 May 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets9–7New York Mets

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 76 meetings on file.

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