Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Miami Marlins

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
loanDepot Park, Miami
Indoor
Fri 26 Sep 2025, 11:10PM
2
Game Picks
6
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Miami Marlins (Moneyline)
For New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (MLB), model win probability 65.0%, fair odds 1.54, book price +108, model edge +17.0%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Fri 26 Sep 2025, 11:10PM at loanDepot Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Miami Marlins
+ 1 more market
Unlock with Pro
🔒

Unlock every graded pick for this game

See the full board for this matchup — every market, every line, every edge — plus every pick across the slate.

Bet Better Unlock all game picks
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Miami MarlinsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Unlock the full calibrated board

See the model's calibrated probability, fair odds and edge on every market in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock calibrated edges
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Freddy Peralta SP

Miami Marlins

  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Otto Lopez SSDay-to-day
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut
  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Owen Caissie RFOut
  • John King RPOut
  • Josh Ekness RPOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut

Probable pitcher

Janson Junk SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 12:10AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Miami Marlins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Sandy Alcantara MIA Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Sandy Alcantara MIA Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tyrone Taylor NYM Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Otto Lopez MIA Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

Unlock every player prop for this game

Get the player, the line, the pick and the edge on every graded prop in this matchup.

Bet Better Unlock player props
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMiami MarlinsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs New York Mets L52-3

Miami Marlins moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Run LineMiami Marlins run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs New York Mets L52-3

Miami Marlins spread form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Miami Marlins vs New York MetsNo line posted

Miami Marlins total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMiami Marlins team totalNo line posted
2.9implied team total
L5 RF3.4L5 RA1.8Home L52-3vs New York Mets L52-3

Miami Marlins team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.4 runs/gm.

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Miami Marlins are scoring 2.8 runs per game (2-3) while New York Mets are at 4.4 (4-1); Miami Marlins pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 2.6 for New York Mets.

2.8
Miami Marlins runs/G
4.4
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesMiami MarlinsNew York Mets
Runs / game2.84.4
Hits / game4.88.2
Home runs / game0.41.4
Walks drawn / game2.03.0
Batter K / game4.66.0
Earned runs allowed / game3.62.6
Pitching K / game6.410.6
Walks allowed / game2.03.2
L5 record2-34-1

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Miami Marlins vs New York Mets. Featuring picks like NA props. Discover same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.</p>

Sandy Alcantara (MIA) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Over 2.5 strikeouts bet for Sandy Alcantara is a promising choice, based on his recent performance data. His last five games show an average of 3.2 strikeouts overall, and 5.2 when playing at home. This suggests a higher strikeout potential in home games. Additionally, when facing the Mets, his strikeout average increases to 3.8, indicating a strong track record against this specific opponent. Alcantara also averages around 5 innings per game, both overall and at home, offering ample opportunity to achieve more than 2.5 strikeouts. His outs average also supports this, with 15.2 outs overall, 18 at home, and 17.8 against the Mets. Therefore, based on Alcantara's home and opponent-specific performance, this bet is statistically backed.

Sandy Alcantara (MIA) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-1667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Sandy Alcantara for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Hits Allowed market is supported by his recent performance data. Alcantara's average hits allowed in the last five games overall and against the Mets specifically are both above the line set for this bet, at 4.6 and 5.2 respectively. His home game statistics also point towards this outcome, with an average of 5 hits allowed in his last five home games. Moreover, Alcantara is currently on a 3-game streak of allowing over 2.5 hits, which extends to 23 games when considering home matches. This consistent trend of conceding more than 2.5 hits, combined with his averages against the Mets and in home games, makes this bet a data-driven choice.

Sandy Alcantara (MIA) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Sandy Alcantara to allow over 0.5 walks in the game between the Miami Marlins and the New York Mets is backed by Alcantara's recent performance data. In his last five games, Alcantara has allowed an average of 2.4 walks, both overall and at home, indicating a consistent trend. This is significantly higher than the line of 0.5, suggesting that it is likely he will allow at least one walk in the upcoming game. Furthermore, even when facing the Mets specifically, his walk average remains above the line at 1.6. Additionally, his current hit streaks, both overall and at home, further indicate a pattern of allowing hits, which can lead to walks. Therefore, the data strongly suggests that Alcantara will allow more than 0.5 walks in the game.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Miami Marlins in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Friday 26 September 2025 at loanDepot Park. The model has generated 2 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks