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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Miami Marlins

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 1, 12:13AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
loanDepot Park, Miami
Indoor
Fri 26 Sep 2025, 11:10PM
2
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Miami Marlins Moneyline +108

The model graded 8 markets for New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $208 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Fri 26 Sep 2025, 11:10PM at loanDepot Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win65.0%
The price says48.1%
Best price+108
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Miami Marlins High65% chance +108
Batter - Stolen Bases × 3 props Highup to 94%
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 97%
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 94%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 95%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Miami Marlins
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Miami MarlinsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Robert Stock SP

Miami Marlins

  • Xavier Edwards 2BOut
  • Pete Fairbanks RPOut
  • Andrew Nardi RPOut
  • Max Meyer SPOut
  • Anthony Bender RPOut
  • William Kempner RPOut
  • Robby Snelling SPOut
  • Adam Mazur SPOut
  • Ronny Henriquez RPOut

Probable pitcher

Ryan Gusto SP
Availability updated Aug 31, 10:45PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Miami Marlins: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Stolen Bases
Sandy Alcantara MIA Pitcher - Strikeouts
Sandy Alcantara MIA Pitcher - Walks
Tyrone Taylor NYM Batter - Stolen Bases
Otto Lopez MIA Batter - Stolen Bases

+ 6 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMiami MarlinsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs New York Mets L53-2Free board15-12

Miami Marlins moneyline form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Run LineMiami Marlins run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs New York Mets L53-2

Miami Marlins spread form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Miami Marlins vs New York MetsNo line posted

Miami Marlins total runs form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMiami Marlins team totalNo line posted
0.9runs we expect
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.6Home L51-4vs New York Mets L53-2

Miami Marlins team total runs form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins — what the model found

Our model graded 8 betting markets for New York Mets at Miami Marlins — 2 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 8 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 7 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Miami Marlins — recent results

Miami Marlins have won 2 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 1 of their last 5.

Miami Marlins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–2WSHAway
L4–5WSHAway
L2–9WSHAway
W4–0BOSHome
L3–7BOSHome
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–6HOUHome
W6–2HOUHome
L1–3HOUHome
L2–8MILHome
L1–8MILHome

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Miami Marlins are scoring 2.8 runs per game (2-3) while New York Mets are at 4.4 (4-1); Miami Marlins pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 2.6 for New York Mets.

2.8
Miami Marlins runs/G
4.4
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesMiami MarlinsNew York Mets
Runs / game2.84.4
Hits / game4.88.2
Home runs / game0.41.4
Walks drawn / game2.03.0
Batter K / game4.66.0
Earned runs allowed / game3.62.6
Pitching K / game6.410.6
Walks allowed / game2.03.2
L5 record2-34-1

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Miami Marlins won 6, New York Mets won 4.

DateMiami MarlinsNew York MetsWinner
Aug 220Miami Marlins
Aug 162Miami Marlins
Jul 3152Miami Marlins
Jul 3024New York Mets
May 31110New York Mets
May 3016New York Mets
May 2979New York Mets
May 2440Miami Marlins
May 2341Miami Marlins
May 2221Miami Marlins

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Miami Marlins
PlayerStatus
Xavier Edwards 2BOUT
Pete Fairbanks RPOUT
Andrew Nardi RPOUT
Max Meyer SPOUT
Anthony Bender RPOUT
William Kempner RPOUT
Robby Snelling SPOUT
Adam Mazur SPOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Miami Marlins vs New York Mets. Featuring picks like NA props. Discover same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.

Sandy Alcantara (MIA) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Over 2.5 strikeouts bet for Sandy Alcantara is a promising choice, based on his recent performance data. His last five games show an average of 3.2 strikeouts overall, and 5.2 when playing at home. This suggests a higher strikeout potential in home games. Additionally, when facing the Mets, his strikeout average increases to 3.8, indicating a strong track record against this specific opponent. Alcantara also averages around 5 innings per game, both overall and at home, offering ample opportunity to achieve more than 2.5 strikeouts. His outs average also supports this, with 15.2 outs overall, 18 at home, and 17.8 against the Mets. Therefore, based on Alcantara's home and opponent-specific performance, this bet is statistically backed.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Miami Marlins in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Marlins, or as Marlins vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Friday 26 September 2025 at loanDepot Park. The model has generated 2 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 73 meetings on record
New York Mets 38–31 across the last 73 meetings · 4 draws · these games average 7.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
2 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets0–2Miami Marlins
1 Aug 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets2–6Miami Marlins
31 Jul 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets2–5Miami Marlins
30 Jul 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets4–2New York Mets
31 May 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets10–1New York Mets
30 May 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets6–1New York Mets
29 May 2026Miami Marlins @ New York Mets9–7New York Mets
24 May 2026New York Mets @ Miami Marlins4–0Miami Marlins
23 May 2026New York Mets @ Miami Marlins4–1Miami Marlins
22 May 2026New York Mets @ Miami Marlins2–1Miami Marlins

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 73 meetings on file.

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