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Model picks & player props
Baltimore Orioles
VS
New York Mets

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Our model graded 70 markets for Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets and backs Under 2.5 hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $1,800.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Wed 16 Sep 2026, 11:11PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 2.5 Total Runs +1700

The model graded 70 markets for Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $1,800 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 16 Sep 2026, 11:11PM at Citi Field.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win3.6%
The price says5.6%
Best price+1700
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Under 2.5 Long-shot4% chance +1700
Total Runs Members only Long-shot7% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean45% chance Members
Spread Members only Long-shot8% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Members only Lean48% chance Members
Batter - RBIs × 8 props Leanup to 57% Members
Batter - Home Runs × 5 props Long-shotup to 34% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 3 props Leanup to 43% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 8 props Leanup to 51% Members
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Leanup to 52% Members
Batter - Runs Scored × 3 props Highup to 77% Members
Batter - Strikeouts × 4 props Long-shotup to 30% Members
Batter - Hits × 8 props Leanup to 53% Members
Batter - Singles × 1 prop Highup to 68% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets last met on Wed 16 Sep 2026: Baltimore Orioles won 7-1. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Under
8
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 62,586+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesMoneylineThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Baltimore OriolesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Baltimore Orioles

  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut
  • Kyle Bradish SPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Tyler O'Neill RFOut
  • Samuel Basallo COut
  • Jackson Holliday 2BOut
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Luis Robert Jr. CFOut
  • Reed Trimble LFDay-to-day
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Cameron Foster RPDay-to-day

New York Mets

  • Jared Young 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut
  • Jonathan Pintaro RPOut
  • Christian Scott SPOut
  • Daniel Duarte RPOut
  • Robert Stock SPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
Availability updated Oct 1, 5:19PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
A.J. Ewing Batter - RBIs
A.J. Ewing Batter - Home Runs
A.J. Ewing Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
A.J. Ewing Batter - Total Bases
Chris Bassitt TOR Pitcher - Walks

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.4L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L54-1

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.4L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L54-1

New York Mets spread form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Baltimore OriolesNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
4.6runs we expect
L5 RF5.4L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L54-1

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.4 runs/gm.

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5 games; Baltimore Orioles have won 4 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–6WSHAway
W7–1WSHAway
L6–7WSHAway
W7–2TEXAway
L1–3TEXAway
Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–6NYYAway
W10–2NYYAway
W4–2TORHome
W4–2TORHome
W4–3TORHome

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 6.4 runs per game (2-3) while Baltimore Orioles are at 4.0 (3-2); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 5.0 earned runs per game versus 4.6 for Baltimore Orioles.

6.4
New York Mets runs/G
4.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsBaltimore Orioles
Runs / game6.44.0
Hits / game9.08.6
Home runs / game2.01.6
Walks drawn / game4.02.8
Batter K / game8.213.4
Earned runs allowed / game5.04.6
Pitching K / game8.27.8
Walks allowed / game2.24.6
L5 record2-33-2

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: New York Mets won 0, Baltimore Orioles won 3.

DateNew York MetsBaltimore OriolesWinner
Sep 1617Baltimore Orioles
Sep 1557Baltimore Orioles
Sep 1412Baltimore Orioles

Who’s out or in doubt

21 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Jared Young 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Jonathan Pintaro RPOUT
Christian Scott SPOUT
Daniel Duarte RPOUT
Robert Stock SPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Jordan Westburg 3BOUT
Kyle Bradish SPOUT
Blaze Alexander 3BOUT
Tyler O'Neill RFOUT
Samuel Basallo COUT
Jackson Holliday 2BOUT
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets — model preview

Our Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets prediction for September 17, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 17, 2026 our model has run Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Samuel Basallo Under 0.5 Walks (-370), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Orioles vs Mets, or as Mets vs Orioles. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 16 September 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets head-to-head record

Final scores · 11 meetings on record
Baltimore Orioles 8–3 across the last 11 meetings · these games average 8.5 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Wed 16 Sep 2026, Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets: the Orioles won 7-1.

DateGameScoreWinner
16 Sep 2026Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets1–7Baltimore Orioles
15 Sep 2026Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets5–7Baltimore Orioles
14 Sep 2026Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets1–2Baltimore Orioles
10 Jul 2025New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles3–1Baltimore Orioles
8 Jul 2025New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles6–7New York Mets
21 Aug 2024Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets4–3New York Mets
20 Aug 2024Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets5–9Baltimore Orioles
19 Aug 2024Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets4–3New York Mets
6 Aug 2023New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles2–0Baltimore Orioles
5 Aug 2023New York Mets @ Baltimore Orioles7–3Baltimore Orioles

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 11 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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