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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
New York Yankees

New York Mets vs New York Yankees Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 11:49PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC)
Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep 2026, 11:05PM
1
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Mets Moneyline +118

For New York Mets vs New York Yankees (MLB), this is the model’s pick — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $218 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Fri 11 Sep 2026, 11:05PM at Yankee Stadium.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win44.6%
The price says45.9%
Best price+118
New York Yankees are the model's favourite to beat New York Mets, with a 55% chance to win. Kick-off Fri 11 Sep, 11:05PM at Yankee Stadium. Best bet: New York Mets at +118.
How they've been scoring this season
New York MetsNew York Yankees
Won-lost68-7883-62
Runs scored per game4.34.5
Runs allowed per game4.63.7
On the road / at home34-38 away39-31 at home
Last 5 gamesLWWWWLWLWW
Their games average 8.5 total runs this season.
From the 146 New York Mets and 145 New York Yankees games on our books this season.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 28 bookmakers compared
Winner
New York Mets2.20+120BetUS
Yankees1.79-127Kalshi
Total runs
Over82.03+103LowVig
Under81.95-105Bovada

New York Mets vs New York Yankees odds by bookmaker

28 books · best price in green
BookNew York Mets winYankees winYankees -1.5Over 8Under 8
Bally Bet2.16+1161.71-1412.50+1501.88-1141.91-110
BetMGM2.15+1151.71-1412.65+1651.95-1051.87-115
betPARX2.16+1161.71-1412.50+1501.88-1141.91-110
BetRivers2.18+1181.72-1392.50+1501.88-1141.91-110
Bovada2.17+1171.71-1412.65+1651.87-1151.95-105
DraftKings2.13+1131.74-1352.58+158——
ESPN BET2.15+1151.74-1352.65+165——
Fanatics2.15+1151.71-1412.50+150——
FanDuel2.18+1181.72-1392.62+1621.88-1141.94-106
Fliff2.15+1151.69-1452.45+145——
Hard Rock Bet2.15+1151.71-1412.55+155——
PlayUp2.12+1121.72-1392.45+145——
PointsBet2.20+1201.71-1412.60+1601.90-1111.90-111
ReBet2.10+1101.71-141———

Since the market opened: Yankees to win opened 1.72, best now 1.79; the over 8 opened 1.92, best now 2.03 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 26 of 140 right (mlb batter home runs overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 10
Victor Mesa Jr. Over 0.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $690
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
New York Mets
+118
Player props & full board
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York MetsMoneylineThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Over on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Over
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Polymarket
on New York Mets
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Brett Baty 3BDay-to-day
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

New York Yankees

  • Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2BOut
  • Ryan Weathers SPOut
  • Fernando Cruz RPOut
  • Trent Grisham CFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut

Probable pitcher

Max Fried SP
Availability updated Sep 10, 11:05PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs New York Yankees: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The preview

Written 11 Sep

New York Yankees vs New York Mets Prediction and Picks, September 11, 2026

On September 11, 2026 our model has run New York Mets at New York Yankees and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is New York Yankees vs New York Mets: New York Mets Win (+118), which we rate LONG-SHOT confidence. We walk through all 1 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

New York Yankees vs New York Mets: New York Mets Win (+118)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Yankees play New York Mets in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is New York Yankees vs New York Mets: New York Mets Win (+118). That is a h2h bet. It was priced at +118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Betting angles

1 market live
MoneylineNew York Mets to win+118
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.6L5 RA2.4Away L54-1vs New York Yankees L55-0

New York Mets moneyline vs New York Yankees is live and our model makes it 45% (LONG-SHOT); L5 record 3-2.

Run LineNew York Yankees run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA0.8Home L52-3vs New York Mets L53-2

New York Yankees spread form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Yankees vs New York MetsNo line posted

New York Yankees total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Yankees team totalNo line posted
2.0runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA0.8Home L52-3vs New York Mets L53-2

New York Yankees team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ New York Yankees — what the model found

Our model graded 1 betting market for New York Mets at New York Yankees — 1 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

1
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 1 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

New York Mets vs New York Yankees — recent results

New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5.

New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–1COLHome
W5–3COLHome
L3–4SDAway
L2–3SDAway
W5–1SDAway
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W15–14MIAAway
W7–5MIAAway
W9–4MIAAway
W4–2SFHome
L5–9SFHome

New York Mets vs New York Yankees — recent meetings

These two have met 5 times recently: New York Yankees won 1, New York Mets won 4.

DateNew York YankeesNew York MetsWinner
May 1767New York Mets
May 1636New York Mets
May 1552New York Yankees
Mar 8410New York Mets
Feb 2246New York Mets

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2BOUT
Ryan Weathers SPOUT
Fernando Cruz RPOUT
Trent Grisham CFOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Brett Baty 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ New York Yankees — where the money went

Since betting opened on New York Mets at New York Yankees, the market has moved away from Over across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Total Points — Over 8▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 8▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Under 7.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — New York Yankees -1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 7.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — New York Mets 1.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — New York Yankees -1▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — New York Mets 1▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

New York Mets @ New York Yankees — model preview

Our New York Mets at New York Yankees prediction for September 11, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 11, 2026 our model has run New York Mets at New York Yankees and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is New York Yankees vs New York Mets: New York Mets Win (+118), which we rate LONG-SHOT confidence. We walk through all 1 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs New York Yankees in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Yankees, or as Yankees vs Mets. The next scheduled game is Friday 11 September 2026 at Yankee Stadium. The model has generated 1 game pick for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 23 meetings on record
New York Mets 14–8 across the last 23 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 10.1 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
17 May 2026New York Yankees @ New York Mets7–6New York Mets
16 May 2026New York Yankees @ New York Mets6–3New York Mets
15 May 2026New York Yankees @ New York Mets2–5New York Yankees
8 Mar 2026New York Yankees @ New York Mets10–4New York Mets
22 Feb 2026New York Mets @ New York Yankees4–6New York Mets
6 Jul 2025New York Yankees @ New York Mets4–6New York Yankees
5 Jul 2025New York Yankees @ New York Mets12–6New York Mets
4 Jul 2025New York Yankees @ New York Mets6–5New York Mets
18 May 2025New York Mets @ New York Yankees8–2New York Yankees
17 May 2025New York Mets @ New York Yankees2–3New York Mets

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 23 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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