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Model picks & player props
San Francisco Giants
VS
New York Mets

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 1:09PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Sun 3 Aug 2025, 5:40PM
4
Game Picks
3
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: San Francisco Giants (Moneyline)
For San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets (MLB), model win probability 49.5%, fair odds 2.02, book price +134, model edge +6.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 3 Aug 2025, 5:40PM at Citi Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
San Francisco Giants
+ 3 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
San Francisco GiantsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

San Francisco Giants

  • Trevor McDonald SPDay-to-day
  • Harrison Bader CFOut
  • Matt Chapman 3BOut
  • Victor Bericoto RFOut
  • Jonah Cox CFOut
  • Matt Gage RPOut
  • Joel Peguero RPOut
  • Rowan Wick RPOut
  • Hayden Birdsong RPOut
  • Randy Rodriguez RPOut
  • Jose Butto RPOut

Probable pitcher

Trevor McDonald SP

New York Mets

  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Freddy Peralta SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 2:36AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Juan Soto NYM Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA2.4Home L52-3vs San Francisco Giants L53-2

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 1-4, 2.2 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA2.4Home L52-3vs San Francisco Giants L53-2

New York Mets spread form: last five 1-4, 2.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs San Francisco GiantsNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
2.2implied team total
L5 RF2.2L5 RA2.4Home L52-3vs San Francisco Giants L53-2

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.2 runs/gm.

San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning baseball bets for New York Mets playing San Francisco Giants. Includes analysis on key players like Francisco Lindor. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants stats and odds.</p>

Francisco Lindor (NYM) Over 0.5 Hits (-222)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Francisco Lindor for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a statistically sound choice. His recent performance indicates a strong likelihood of hitting at least once in the upcoming game. Over the last five games, Lindor's overall and home batting averages have been 1.8 hits per game. This suggests consistency in his performance, regardless of the location. Moreover, Lindor has a current hit streak of 3 games overall, and an even more impressive 5-game hit streak at home. His performance against the Giants is also noteworthy, averaging 1.6 hits in the last five games. These statistics indicate a high probability of Lindor getting at least one hit in the game, making the Over 0.5 bet a solid choice based on his recent performance.

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants : San Francisco Giants Win (+136)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on the San Francisco Giants is supported by the New York Mets' poor recent record against them, with only 1 win in their last 5 encounters. Additionally, the Mets' average runs scored (4.4) is only slightly higher than the Giants' (4.2) when playing away, indicating a close offensive match-up. However, the decisive factor is the Mets' higher average runs allowed (2.6) compared to the Giants' runs allowed (3.8) when playing away. This suggests the Giants' offense may have an edge over the Mets' defense, potentially leading to a win for the Giants. While the Mets have been performing well at home recently, their specific performance against the Giants indicates a potential advantage for the away team.

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants : San Francisco Giants Win (+134)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on the San Francisco Giants is a calculated choice based on the performance data. Despite the Mets having a strong recent record (4-1 in the last 5), they have struggled against the Giants, winning only 1 out of the last 5 encounters. The Giants have also shown they can score on the road, averaging 4.2 runs in their last 5 away games, which is close to the Mets' home scoring average. Moreover, the Mets' average allowed runs at home (2.6) is lower than the Giants' average scored runs away (4.2), suggesting that the Giants could potentially outscore the Mets. The Giants' higher average allowed runs (4.4) is a concern, but the head-to-head record indicates they've been able to contain the Mets effectively. This data-driven analysis supports the bet on the San Francisco Giants.

Francisco Lindor (NYM) Over 0.5 Hits (-256)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Francisco Lindor for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a good choice due to his impressive performance data. Lindor's overall average hits for the last five games stands at 1.8, which is well above the 0.5 line. This trend is consistent in both his home games and against the San Francisco Giants, with averages of 1.8 and 1.6 hits respectively. Furthermore, Lindor has a current hit streak of 3 games overall and 5 games at home, indicating his consistent hitting form. His plate appearances average of 4.6 also provides enough opportunities to secure at least one hit. Therefore, considering Lindor's strong and consistent performance, betting on him to achieve over 0.5 hits is statistically justified.

Francisco Lindor (NYM) Over 0.5 Hits (-256)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Francisco Lindor for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits Alternate market is a statistically sound choice. Lindor's recent performance, as shown by his last five (L5) averages, indicates a strong probability of this outcome. His L5 overall hits average is 1.8 per game, and his L5 home hits average is also 1.8, both well above the 0.5 line. Moreover, his L5 average against the Giants is 1.6 hits per game. Additionally, Lindor is on a hitting streak, with three consecutive games with a hit overall, and an even more impressive five-game hitting streak at home. These statistics suggest a high likelihood that Lindor will continue his trend of consistent hitting in the upcoming game against the Giants.

Juan Soto (NYM) Over 0.5 Hits (-204)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Juan Soto for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is backed by his consistent performance data. Soto's last five games' average (L5 Overall Hits Avg) is 1 hit per game, which is twice as much as the line set for this bet. His batting average at home games is also 1, indicating a strong performance irrespective of the location. Furthermore, when facing the San Francisco Giants, his hit average increases to 1.8, demonstrating his effectiveness against this particular opponent. Despite his current hit streak being zero, Soto's past performance data indicates a high probability of him securing at least one hit in the upcoming game, making the Over 0.5 bet a solid choice.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 3 August 2025 at Citi Field. The model has generated 4 game picks and 3 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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