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Model picks & player props
San Francisco Giants
VS
New York Mets

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 2:36AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Sun 3 Aug 2025, 5:40PM
4
Game markets graded
3
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
San Francisco Giants Moneyline +134

The model graded 7 markets for San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $234 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 3 Aug 2025, 5:40PM at Citi Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win49.5%
The price says42.7%
Best price+134
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline San Francisco Giants Lean49% chance +134
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 77%
Batter - Stolen Bases × 1 prop Highup to 94%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
San Francisco Giants
+ 3 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
San Francisco GiantsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

San Francisco Giants

  • Sam Hentges RPOut
  • Casey Schmitt LFOut
  • Willy Adames SSOut
  • Jesus Rodriguez COut
  • Carson Whisenhunt SPOut
  • Adrian Houser SPOut
  • Matt Gage RPOut
  • JT Brubaker RPOut
  • Victor Bericoto LFOut
  • Joel Peguero RPOut
  • Marcelo Mayer 2BOut
  • Keaton Winn RPOut
  • Daniel Susac COut
  • Harrison Bader CFOut
  • Matt Chapman 3BOut
  • Trevor McDonald SPOut
  • Rowan Wick RPOut
  • Hayden Birdsong RPOut
  • Randy Rodriguez RPOut
  • Jose Butto RPOut

New York Mets

  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Zac Thornton SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 7:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 27 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability27 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Hits
Juan Soto NYM Batter - Hits
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Stolen Bases

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
0-5L5 record
L5 RF0.2L5 RA1.0Home L50-5vs San Francisco Giants L51-4

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 0-5, 0.2 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
0-5L5 record
L5 RF0.2L5 RA1.0Home L50-5vs San Francisco Giants L51-4

New York Mets spread form: last five 0-5, 0.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs San Francisco GiantsNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 0-5, 0.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
0.3runs we expect
L5 RF0.2L5 RA1.0Home L50-5vs San Francisco Giants L51-4

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 0-5, 0.2 runs/gm.

San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 7 betting markets for San Francisco Giants at New York Mets — 4 on the game itself and 3 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

4
Game markets graded
3
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 7 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 6 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5 games; San Francisco Giants have won 2 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–2HOUHome
L1–3HOUHome
L2–8MILHome
L1–8MILHome
W3–2MILHome
San Francisco Giants — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L6–10ARIHome
L1–7ARIHome
W6–1ARIHome
W3–1CINHome
L9–10CINHome

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 4 times recently: New York Mets won 3, San Francisco Giants won 1.

DateNew York MetsSan Francisco GiantsWinner
Apr 590New York Mets
Apr 552New York Mets
Apr 4103New York Mets
Apr 327San Francisco Giants

Who’s out or in doubt

27 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
San Francisco Giants
PlayerStatus
Sam Hentges RPOUT
Casey Schmitt LFOUT
Willy Adames SSOUT
Jesus Rodriguez COUT
Carson Whisenhunt SPOUT
Adrian Houser SPOUT
Matt Gage RPOUT
JT Brubaker RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for New York Mets playing San Francisco Giants. Includes analysis on key players like Francisco Lindor. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants stats and odds.

Francisco Lindor (NYM) Over 0.5 Hits (-222)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Francisco Lindor for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a statistically sound choice. His recent performance indicates a strong likelihood of hitting at least once in the upcoming game. Over the last five games, Lindor's overall and home batting averages have been 1.8 hits per game. This suggests consistency in his performance, regardless of the location. Moreover, Lindor has a current hit streak of 3 games overall, and an even more impressive 5-game hit streak at home. His performance against the Giants is also noteworthy, averaging 1.6 hits in the last five games. These statistics indicate a high probability of Lindor getting at least one hit in the game, making the Over 0.5 bet a solid choice based on his recent performance.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Giants vs Mets, or as Mets vs Giants. The most recent game between them was Sunday 3 August 2025 at Citi Field. The model has generated 4 game picks and 3 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 23 meetings on record
New York Mets 12–11 across the last 23 meetings · these games average 9.6 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
5 Apr 2026New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants0–9New York Mets
4 Apr 2026New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants3–10New York Mets
3 Apr 2026New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants7–2San Francisco Giants
2 Apr 2026New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants7–2San Francisco Giants
3 Aug 2025San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets4–12San Francisco Giants
2 Aug 2025San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets12–6New York Mets
1 Aug 2025San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets3–4San Francisco Giants
27 Jul 2025New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants3–5New York Mets
26 Jul 2025New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants1–2New York Mets
25 Jul 2025New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants1–8New York Mets

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 23 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

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