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The latest Bet Better model pick for Francisco Alvarez is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 65%, for a model edge of +24.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 5:08PM UTC
MLB

Francisco Alvarez

NYM

+24.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -182 (1.55)
+24.8% Edge
Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets
Citi Field, Queens (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Thu 9 Jul, 5:10PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
89.3%
Implied Probability
64.5%
Model Edge
+24.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases89.3%—64.5%1.12+24.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Francisco Alvarez (NYM) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-182)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the New York Mets gear up to face the Kansas City Royals, all eyes will be on Francisco Alvarez. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance at the plate, recent trends suggest he might struggle to reach that 1.5 total base mark today. The Royals’ pitching staff, particularly their starters, has found a groove lately, limiting opponents to a modest .225 batting average over their last series. Furthermore, Alvarez has been in a bit of a slump, managing only a handful of hits in his past few games, which makes the under on his total bases appealing. The Mets lineup can be potent, but against an improved Royals pitching staff, Alvarez may find it tough to capitalize. With an implied probability of 64.5% favoring the under, betting against him reaching 1.5 total bases feels like a smart move in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2060%
O 0.550%
O 1.520%

Francisco Alvarez MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.540%
O 2.530%
O 3.510%

Francisco Alvarez MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Francisco Alvarez MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2065%
O 0.550%
O 1.550%

Francisco Alvarez MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%
O 1.520%

Francisco Alvarez MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%
O 1.520%

Francisco Alvarez MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Jul 26 Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -182 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -164 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Francisco Alvarez (NYM) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Francisco Alvarez is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +24.8% on this pick. Their next game is Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets on Thursday 9 July at Citi Field, Queens (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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