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The latest Bet Better model pick for Francisco Alvarez is Over 2.5 on Batter - Hits.
On Batter - Hits, our numbers say this bet wins about 12 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 12%, the price says 3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.

Recent form on the board

Under 1.50 Hlanded 10 of the last 10
Under 1.50 1Blanded 10 of the last 10

Graded from real results — only lines with recent form are shown.

Model updated Sep 21, 12:07PM UTC
MLB

Francisco Alvarez

MLB

Value call

Francisco Alvarez has one live pick today: Batter - Hits Over 2.5 that pays $2,900 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Batter - Hits Over 2.5 +2800 (29.00) · $100→$2,900
Value call
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
Citi Field, Queens (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Sun 20 Sep, 5:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb pitcher strikeouts overs: 181 of 382 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
12 in 100
Predicted
0.9 Batter - Hits
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 12.4% · before adjusting for past results 8.1% · the book's price implies 3.4% · gap +9.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Hits8.1%12.4%3.4%8.05+4.7%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Francisco Alvarez Over 2.5 Hits (+2800)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

New York Mets play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Francisco Alvarez Over 2.5 Hits (+2800). That is a Hits bet. It was priced at +2800 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $290 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Hit-rate ladder: Hits Runs Rbis

Francisco Alvarez has gone over 0.5 hits runs rbis in 75% of his last 10 games, and the hit rate drops as the line rises.

o0.575%
o1.550%
o2.550%
o3.525%
o4.50%
Quick answers:How many home runs does Francisco Alvarez hit?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
20 Sep 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets Batter - Hits 1.5 Over +600 ✓ HIT
20 Sep 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets Batter - Hits 0.5 Over -115 ✓ HIT
20 Sep 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets Batter - Doubles 0.5 Over +750 ✗ MISS
20 Sep 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets Batter - Walks — — — Pending
20 Sep 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets Batter - RBIs — — — Pending
20 Sep 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending

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About This Player

Francisco Alvarez is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Francisco Alvarez is Over 2.5 on Batter - Hits. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.7% on this pick. Their next game is Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets on Sunday 20 September at Citi Field, Queens (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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