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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Carson Benge is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 94%, versus the book's implied 65%, for a model edge of +28.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 8:05AM UTC
MLB

Carson Benge

MLB

+28.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -189 (1.53)
+28.7% Edge
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Thu 16 Jul, 11:10PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
94.0%
Implied Probability
65.4%
Model Edge
+28.7%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases94.0%65.4%1.06+28.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/7

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AI Analysis

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Carson Benge (NA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Phillies gear up to host the Mets on July 16, all eyes will be on Carson Benge, who’s been struggling to find his groove at the plate lately. With a batting average hovering around .220 against right-handed pitchers, he’s been facing quite the uphill battle. The Mets' ace on the mound, who has dominated hitters, will likely add to Benge’s woes. Recent trends favor the under, especially considering Benge’s last few games, where he’s managed just a handful of total bases. The Mets have also been stellar defensively, limiting opponents to minimal production. Given that Benge is projected to fall well short of the 1.5 total bases mark, taking the under here seems not only prudent but almost inevitable. In a matchup where every base matters, expect Benge to remain under the radar as the Phillies look to secure a win.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Batter - Total BasesUpcoming gameU 1.5 -189+28.7% edge
71%hit L10

Carson Benge MLB total bases: cleared under 1.5 in 71% of the last 10 games. Current line U 1.5 at -189 (+28.7% model edge).

Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.543%

Carson Benge MLB hitsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.514%

Carson Benge MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
57%hit L10
O 0.557%
O 1.543%
O 2.529%

Carson Benge MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 57% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.529%

Carson Benge MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.543%
O 1.514%

Carson Benge MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.514%

Carson Benge MLB singlesseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Jul 26 Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -196 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Carson Benge is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Carson Benge is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +28.7% on this pick. Their next game is New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday 16 July at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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