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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Washington Nationals

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 7:17PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Nationals Park, Washington
Outdoor
Thu 21 Aug 2025, 8:05PM
20
Game markets graded
4
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 5.5 (Team Total)
The model graded 24 markets for New York Mets vs Washington Nationals (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $260 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 56.6%, fair odds 1.77, book price +160, model edge +18.1%. Tip-off Thu 21 Aug 2025, 8:05PM at Nationals Park.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total
Over
2.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Christian Scott SP

Washington Nationals

  • Richard Lovelady RPOut
  • Josiah Gray SPOut
  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • James Wood RFOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Washington Nationals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
MacKenzie Gore WSN Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
CJ Abrams WSN Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Juan Soto NYM Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineWashington NationalsNo line posted
0-5L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA2.4Home L51-4vs New York Mets L52-3

Washington Nationals moneyline form: last five 0-5, 1.0 runs/gm.

Run LineWashington Nationals run lineNo line posted
0-5L5 record
L5 RF1.0L5 RA2.4Home L51-4vs New York Mets L52-3

Washington Nationals spread form: last five 0-5, 1.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Washington Nationals vs New York MetsNo line posted

Washington Nationals total runs form: last five 0-5, 1.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsWashington Nationals team totalNo line posted
1.2runs we expect
L5 RF1.0L5 RA2.4Home L51-4vs New York Mets L52-3

Washington Nationals team total runs form: last five 0-5, 1.0 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals — what the model found

Our model graded 24 betting markets for New York Mets at Washington Nationals — 20 on the game itself and 4 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
4
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 24 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 23 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Washington Nationals — recent results

Washington Nationals have won 4 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5.

Washington Nationals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–1CINHome
W8–2CINHome
W5–3CINHome
L3–7PHIAway
W10–4PHIAway
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W11–1PITAway
L0–9PITAway
W6–4PITAway
W13–6CLEAway
W6–5CLEAway

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Washington Nationals
PlayerStatus
Richard Lovelady RPOUT
Josiah Gray SPOUT
Connelly Early SPOUT
DJ Herz SPOUT
James Wood RFOUT
PJ Poulin RPOUT
Mitchell Parker RPOUT
Drew Millas COUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Austin Warren RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Washington Nationals vs New York Mets. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Francisco Lindor. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Washington Nationals vs New York Mets stats and odds.

Francisco Lindor (NYM) Over 0.5 Hits (-250)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Francisco Lindor for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. Lindor's overall average for hits in the last five games is 1.8, well above the line of 0.5. Moreover, his average hits when playing away is 1.2, again exceeding the line. Lindor also demonstrates consistency, with a current overall hit streak of 3 games and an even more impressive away hit streak of 5 games. Although his average hits against the Nationals is slightly lower at 0.8, it still surpasses the line. Considering his plate appearances, Lindor has ample opportunities to hit, averaging 4.6 overall and 5 when playing away. In conclusion, Lindor's recent hitting performance and consistency, especially in away games, make this bet a solid choice.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Washington Nationals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Nationals, or as Nationals vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Thursday 21 August 2025 at Nationals Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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