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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Washington Nationals

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 3:55AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Nationals Park, Washington
Outdoor
Thu 21 Aug 2025, 8:05PM
20
Game markets graded
4
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 5.5 Team Total +160

The model graded 24 markets for New York Mets vs Washington Nationals (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $260 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 21 Aug 2025, 8:05PM at Nationals Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win56.6%
The price says38.5%
Best price+160
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Team Total Over 5.5 Lean57% chance +160
Total Runs High81% chance
Team Total High86% chance
Total Runs High85% chance
Moneyline Lean55% chance
Team Total High90% chance
Team Total High76% chance
Team Total High68% chance
Team Total High99% chance
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 1 prop Highup to 91%
Batter - Hits × 3 props Highup to 77%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Team Total
Over
0.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Zac Thornton SP

Washington Nationals

  • Cade Cavalli SPDay-to-day
  • James Wood RFOut
  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • Josiah Gray SPOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Richard Lovelady RPOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Alvarez SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 8:51PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Washington Nationals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
MacKenzie Gore WSN Pitcher - Strikeouts
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Hits
CJ Abrams WSN Batter - Hits
Juan Soto NYM Batter - Hits

+ 4 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineWashington NationalsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs New York Mets L52-3

Washington Nationals moneyline form: last five 4-1, 2.4 runs/gm.

Run LineWashington Nationals run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs New York Mets L52-3

Washington Nationals spread form: last five 4-1, 2.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Washington Nationals vs New York MetsNo line posted

Washington Nationals total runs form: last five 4-1, 2.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsWashington Nationals team totalNo line posted
1.7runs we expect
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs New York Mets L52-3

Washington Nationals team total runs form: last five 4-1, 2.4 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals — what the model found

Our model graded 24 betting markets for New York Mets at Washington Nationals — 20 on the game itself and 4 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
4
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 24 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 23 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Washington Nationals — recent results

Washington Nationals have won 3 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5.

Washington Nationals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–4MIAHome
W9–2MIAHome
W7–1COLHome
L1–13COLHome
L1–3COLHome
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–2HOUHome
L1–3HOUHome
L2–8MILHome
L1–8MILHome
W3–2MILHome

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Washington Nationals won 4, New York Mets won 6.

DateWashington NationalsNew York MetsWinner
Aug 1634New York Mets
Aug 1545New York Mets
Aug 1414New York Mets
May 2112New York Mets
May 2084Washington Nationals
May 1996Washington Nationals
May 18716New York Mets
Apr 3054Washington Nationals
Apr 29142Washington Nationals
Apr 2808New York Mets

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Washington Nationals
PlayerStatus
Cade Cavalli SPDAY-TO-DAY
James Wood RFOUT
Connelly Early SPOUT
Josiah Gray SPOUT
DJ Herz SPOUT
Drew Millas COUT
Richard Lovelady RPOUT
PJ Poulin RPOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Devin Williams RPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Washington Nationals vs New York Mets. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Francisco Lindor. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Washington Nationals vs New York Mets stats and odds.

Francisco Lindor (NYM) Over 0.5 Hits (-250)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Francisco Lindor for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. Lindor's overall average for hits in the last five games is 1.8, well above the line of 0.5. Moreover, his average hits when playing away is 1.2, again exceeding the line. Lindor also demonstrates consistency, with a current overall hit streak of 3 games and an even more impressive away hit streak of 5 games. Although his average hits against the Nationals is slightly lower at 0.8, it still surpasses the line. Considering his plate appearances, Lindor has ample opportunities to hit, averaging 4.6 overall and 5 when playing away. In conclusion, Lindor's recent hitting performance and consistency, especially in away games, make this bet a solid choice.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Washington Nationals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Nationals, or as Nationals vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Thursday 21 August 2025 at Nationals Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 72 meetings on record
New York Mets 38–33 across the last 72 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 9.8 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
16 Aug 2026Washington Nationals @ New York Mets4–3New York Mets
15 Aug 2026Washington Nationals @ New York Mets5–4New York Mets
14 Aug 2026Washington Nationals @ New York Mets4–1New York Mets
21 May 2026New York Mets @ Washington Nationals1–2New York Mets
20 May 2026New York Mets @ Washington Nationals8–4Washington Nationals
19 May 2026New York Mets @ Washington Nationals9–6Washington Nationals
18 May 2026New York Mets @ Washington Nationals7–16New York Mets
30 Apr 2026Washington Nationals @ New York Mets4–5Washington Nationals
29 Apr 2026Washington Nationals @ New York Mets2–14Washington Nationals
28 Apr 2026Washington Nationals @ New York Mets8–0New York Mets

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 72 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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