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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Washington Nationals

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 1:09PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Nationals Park, Washington
Outdoor
Thu 21 Aug 2025, 8:05PM
20
Game Picks
4
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 2.5 (Team Total Runs)
For New York Mets vs Washington Nationals (MLB), model win probability 96.4%, fair odds 1.04, book price -333, model edge +19.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 21 Aug 2025, 8:05PM at Nationals Park.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Runs
Over
1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Washington NationalsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Freddy Peralta SP

Washington Nationals

  • Trevor Williams SPOut
  • Jake Irvin SPOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Richard Lovelady RPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Brad Lord RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut
  • Josiah Gray SPOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Alvarez SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 12:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Washington Nationals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
MacKenzie Gore WSN Pitcher - Strikeouts 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
CJ Abrams WSN Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Juan Soto NYM Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineWashington NationalsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA2.2Home L54-1vs New York Mets L53-2Win rec6-10

Washington Nationals moneyline form: last five 4-1, 3.2 runs/gm.

Run LineWashington Nationals run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA2.2Home L54-1vs New York Mets L53-2ATS6-9

Washington Nationals spread form: last five 4-1, 3.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Washington Nationals vs New York MetsNo line posted

Washington Nationals total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsWashington Nationals team totalNo line posted
2.8implied team total
L5 RF3.2L5 RA2.2Home L54-1vs New York Mets L53-2

Washington Nationals team total runs form: last five 4-1, 3.2 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Washington Nationals vs New York Mets. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Francisco Lindor. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Washington Nationals vs New York Mets stats and odds.</p>

Francisco Lindor (NYM) Over 0.5 Hits (-250)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Francisco Lindor for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. Lindor's overall average for hits in the last five games is 1.8, well above the line of 0.5. Moreover, his average hits when playing away is 1.2, again exceeding the line. Lindor also demonstrates consistency, with a current overall hit streak of 3 games and an even more impressive away hit streak of 5 games. Although his average hits against the Nationals is slightly lower at 0.8, it still surpasses the line. Considering his plate appearances, Lindor has ample opportunities to hit, averaging 4.6 overall and 5 when playing away. In conclusion, Lindor's recent hitting performance and consistency, especially in away games, make this bet a solid choice.

CJ Abrams (WSN) Over 0.5 Hits (-200)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on CJ Abrams for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a good choice due to his consistent performance, irrespective of the game location or the opponent. His average hits over the last five games, both overall and at home, stand at 0.6, which is above the line of 0.5. This suggests that he is more likely to hit the ball at least once in the game. Also, his average plate appearances (PA) are 4, indicating he has ample opportunities to secure a hit. Even when considering his performance against the Mets, his average hits remain consistent at 0.6. Despite his current hit streak being zero, his previous performances illustrate a strong batting consistency. Therefore, based on these statistical trends, betting Over 0.5 for CJ Abrams is a sound choice.

Juan Soto (NYM) Over 0.5 Hits (-208)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Juan Soto for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a good choice based on his recent performance data. Despite currently having a hit streak of 0, his overall average for hits in the last five games is 1, indicating that he has a consistent ability to make hits. Moreover, his plate appearances (PA) average remains steady at 4.4, both overall and away, suggesting he gets ample opportunities to bat. Although his average hits drop to 0.4 against the Nationals and even lower to 0.2 in away games, the fact that the line is set at just 0.5 means he only needs to make one hit for the bet to win. Given his overall performance and opportunities at bat, this seems a reasonable expectation.

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets : Under 5.5 alternate_team_totals (-312)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'Washington Nationals Under 5.5' for the Team Total Runs (Alternate) market is a strong choice considering the Nationals' recent performance. Over their last five games, the Nationals have averaged only 2.3 runs, significantly lower than the line of 5.5. Their batting average is also relatively low at 5.2 hits per game. Furthermore, their record against the Mets is 0-5, suggesting they struggle against this particular opponent. Additionally, the Mets have a strong defensive record, allowing an average of just 2.6 runs in their last five games. This combination of the Nationals' poor offensive performance and the Mets' strong defense makes it statistically unlikely that the Nationals will score over 5.5 runs in the upcoming game.

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets : Over 5.5 Total Runs (-385)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet for 'Over 5.5' total runs in the Washington Nationals vs New York Mets game is supported by recent offensive and defensive performance data. The Nationals' home runs scored average is 4, while the Mets' away runs scored average is 3.4. This combined average of 7.4 is well above the line of 5.5. Additionally, both teams' batting averages are strong, with the Nationals averaging 7.2 hits at home and the Mets averaging 7 hits away. This suggests both teams have been hitting well and should produce runs. On the defensive side, the Nationals have allowed an average of 3 runs at home and the Mets have allowed an average of 2.6 runs away. These statistics indicate that both teams' defenses have been somewhat porous, which could lead to a higher scoring game. Therefore, the 'Over 5.5' bet is a statistically sound choice.

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets : Over 7 Total Runs (-196)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'Over 7' for the Total Runs in the Washington Nationals vs New York Mets game is backed by both teams' recent scoring trends. Despite their losing records, the Nationals have averaged 4 runs per game at home over the last five games, while the Mets have averaged 4.4 runs overall and 3.4 on the road. This indicates a combined scoring potential above the 7-run line. Additionally, both teams' batting averages are relatively high, with the Nationals averaging 5.2 hits overall and 7.2 at home, and the Mets averaging 8.2 hits overall and 7 on the road. This suggests a likelihood of runs being scored. Furthermore, the Nationals have allowed an average of 3.7 runs overall and 3 at home, and the Mets have allowed an average of 2.6 runs both overall and away, further supporting the potential for a high-scoring game.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Washington Nationals in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 21 August 2025 at Nationals Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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