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Model picks & player props
Tampa Bay Rays
VS
New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 22, 2:09PM UTC

Our model graded 70 markets for Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees and backs Over 7.5 hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $242.

MLB
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC)
Outdoor
Tue 22 Sep 2026, 5:05PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 7.5 Total Runs +142

The model graded 70 markets for Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $242 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Tue 22 Sep 2026, 5:05PM at Yankee Stadium.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win49.6%
The price says41.3%
Best price+142
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 7.5 Lean50% chance +142
Total Runs Members only Long-shot20% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot13% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot37% chance Members
Spread Members only Long-shot10% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean45% chance Members
Batter - Doubles × 6 props Highup to 75% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 9 props Leanup to 50% Members
Pitcher - Outs × 1 prop Highup to 68% Members
Batter - Stolen Bases × 4 props Long-shotup to 38% Members
Batter - RBIs × 15 props Leanup to 48% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 5 props Long-shotup to 29% Members
Batter - Walks × 5 props Leanup to 45% Members
Batter - Strikeouts × 3 props Long-shotup to 34% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
New York Yankees are the model's favourite to beat Tampa Bay Rays, with a 56% chance to win. Predicted score: New York Yankees 4.4 – Tampa Bay Rays 4.5. Kick-off Tue 22 Sep, 5:05PM at Yankee Stadium. Best bet: Over 7.5 at +142.
How they've been scoring this season
Tampa Bay RaysNew York Yankees
Won-lost95-6089-66
Runs scored per game4.64.6
Runs allowed per game4.03.7
On the road / at home40-34 away42-32 at home
Last 5 gamesWWLWWWLWLL
Their games average 8.5 total runs this season.
From the 155 Tampa Bay Rays and 155 New York Yankees games on our books this season.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 50 bookmakers compared
Winner
Tampa Bay Rays2.15+1151xBet
Yankees1.89-112Betfair Ex Eu
Total runs
Over71.95-105Bovada
Under71.98-102Pinnacle

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees odds by bookmaker

50 books · best price in green
BookTampa Bay Rays winYankees winYankees -1.5Over 7Under 7
1xBet2.15+1151.80-1252.74+174
888sport2.05+1051.75-133
Bally Bet2.06+1061.78-1282.70+1701.83-1201.85-118
BetAnySports2.08+1081.82-1222.70+1701.89-1121.93-108
BetMGM2.05+1051.80-1252.65+1651.87-1151.95-105
BetOnline2.09+1091.83-1202.77+1771.89-1121.93-108
betPARX2.06+1061.78-1282.70+1701.83-1201.85-118
BetRivers2.07+1071.79-1272.70+1701.83-1201.85-118
BetUS2.09+1091.83-1202.72+1721.91-1101.91-110
Bovada2.03+1031.81-1232.75+1751.95-1051.87-115
Coolbet2.05+1051.78-1281.91-1101.91-110
DraftKings2.05+1051.79-1272.70+1701.89-1121.93-108
ESPN BET2.10+1101.77-1302.70+170
Fanatics2.05+1051.80-1252.70+1701.87-1151.95-105

Since the market opened: Yankees to win opened 1.73, best now 1.89; the over 7 opened 1.90, best now 1.95 (decimal, best book).

Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 181 of 387 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 20
Matt Wilkinson Over 1.5
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $140
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
14.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 57,726+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysMoneylineThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Under on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Under
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Polymarket
on Under
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Shane McClanahan SPOut
  • Garrett Cleavinger RPOut
  • Tyler Wells RPOut
  • Manuel Rodriguez RPOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

New York Yankees

  • Trent Grisham CFOut
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2BOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Ryan Weathers SPOut
  • Fernando Cruz RPOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
Availability updated Sep 21, 1:44AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The preview

Written 22 Sep

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction and Picks, September 22, 2026

On September 22, 2026 our model has run Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays: Over 5 Total Runs (-286), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Liam Hicks (MIA) Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+145)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

New York Yankees play Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Liam Hicks (MIA) Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+145). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at +145 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $24.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Liam Hicks (MIA) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-200)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

New York Yankees play Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Liam Hicks (MIA) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-200). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -200 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Liam Hicks (MIA) Over 0.5 Singles (+100)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

New York Yankees play Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Liam Hicks (MIA) Over 0.5 Singles (+100). That is a Singles bet. It was priced at +100 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays: New York Yankees -1.5 (+225)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Yankees play Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays: New York Yankees -1.5 (+225). That is a alternate spreads 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at +225 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $32.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays: Over 2.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-196)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Yankees play Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays: Over 2.5 alternate totals 1st 5 innings (-196). That is a alternate totals 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at -196 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays: Over 5 Total Runs (-286)

Odds correct at time of publishing

New York Yankees play Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays: Over 5 Total Runs (-286). That is a alternate totals bet. It was priced at -286 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 22 Sep

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 22, 2026

On September 22, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip LEAN confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Ben Rice Under 0.5 Doubles (-588)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

New York Yankees play Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Ben Rice Under 0.5 Doubles (-588). That is a Doubles bet. It was priced at -588 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Jonny Deluca (TBR) Under 0.5 Walks (-357)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

New York Yankees play Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Jonny Deluca (TBR) Under 0.5 Walks (-357). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -357 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 Walks (-455)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

New York Yankees play Tampa Bay Rays in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Chandler Simpson Under 0.5 Walks (-455). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -455 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Liam Hicks MIA Batter - Doubles
Ryan McMahon COL Batter - Doubles
Chandler Simpson Batter - Doubles
Victor Mesa Jr. Batter - Doubles
Jonathan Aranda TBR Batter - Doubles

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

3 markets live
Total RunsGame total · New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay RaysOver 9.5 +300
8.8proj. runs
L5 RF5.6L5 RA4.2Home L54-1vs Tampa Bay Rays L53-2

New York Yankees total runs vs Tampa Bay Rays is live and our model makes it 33% (LONG-SHOT); proj. runs 8.8.

Run LineTampa Bay Rays run line-4.5 +750
-0.4proj. margin
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.0Away L53-2vs New York Yankees L52-3

Tampa Bay Rays spread vs New York Yankees is live and our model makes it 10% (LONG-SHOT); proj. margin -0.4.

MoneylineTampa Bay Rays to win+118
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.0Away L53-2vs New York Yankees L52-3

Tampa Bay Rays moneyline vs New York Yankees is live and our model makes it 44% (LONG-SHOT); L5 record 4-1.

Team Total RunsNew York Yankees team totalNo line posted
3.8runs we expect
L5 RF5.6L5 RA4.2Home L54-1vs Tampa Bay Rays L53-2

New York Yankees team total runs form: last five 2-3, 5.6 runs/gm.

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees — recent results

New York Yankees have won 2 of their last 5 games; Tampa Bay Rays have won 4 of their last 5.

New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–5ARIAway
L4–8ARIAway
W9–2ARIAway
L4–5MINAway
W8–1MINAway
Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–1BOSHome
W2–1BOSHome
L2–4BOSHome
W10–1ATHHome
W4–3ATHHome

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: New York Yankees won 4, Tampa Bay Rays won 6.

DateNew York YankeesTampa Bay RaysWinner
Jul 9124New York Yankees
Jul 803Tampa Bay Rays
Jul 746Tampa Bay Rays
Jul 651New York Yankees
May 2420New York Yankees
May 2224Tampa Bay Rays
Apr 1245Tampa Bay Rays
Apr 1145Tampa Bay Rays
Apr 1035Tampa Bay Rays
Mar 1732New York Yankees

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Trent Grisham CFOUT
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2BOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT
Ryan Weathers SPOUT
Fernando Cruz RPOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Shane McClanahan SPOUT
Garrett Cleavinger RPOUT
Tyler Wells RPOUT
Manuel Rodriguez RPOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Jonathan Heasley RPOUT
Ryan Pepiot SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees — where the money went

Since betting opened on Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, the market has moved away from Under across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Total Points — Under 6.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 6.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — Tampa Bay Rays -1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — New York Yankees -1.5▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Over 7▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 7▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Over 7▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Under 7▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees — model preview

Our Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees prediction for September 22, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 22, 2026 our model has run Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays: Over 5 Total Runs (-286), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Rays vs Yankees, or as Yankees vs Rays. The next scheduled game is Tuesday 22 September 2026 at Yankee Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 58 meetings on record
New York Yankees 29–27 across the last 58 meetings · 2 draws · these games average 8.7 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
9 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays4–12New York Yankees
8 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays3–0Tampa Bay Rays
7 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays6–4Tampa Bay Rays
6 Jul 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays1–5New York Yankees
24 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees2–0New York Yankees
22 May 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees2–4Tampa Bay Rays
12 Apr 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays5–4Tampa Bay Rays
11 Apr 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays5–4Tampa Bay Rays
10 Apr 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays5–3Tampa Bay Rays
17 Mar 2026New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays2–3New York Yankees

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 58 meetings on file.

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