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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 2:09PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC)
Outdoor
Thu 2 Oct 2025, 10:08PM
20
Game Picks
3
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: New York Yankees (Moneyline)
For Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees (MLB), model win probability 81.4%, fair odds 1.23, book price -161, model edge +19.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 2 Oct 2025, 10:08PM at Yankee Stadium.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
New York Yankees
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York YankeesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Ranger Suarez SPOut
  • Trevor Story SSOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Marcelo Mayer 2BOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Payton Tolle SP

New York Yankees

  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Max Fried SPOut

Probable pitcher

Ryan Weathers SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 1:58AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ryan McMahon COL Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jarren Duran BOS Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Aaron Judge NYY Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York YankeesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.8L5 RA3.4Home L52-3vs Boston Red Sox L55-0Win rec4-12

New York Yankees moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.8 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Yankees run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.8L5 RA3.4Home L52-3vs Boston Red Sox L55-0ATS5-13

New York Yankees spread form: last five 3-2, 3.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxNo line posted

New York Yankees total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Yankees team totalNo line posted
2.7implied team total
L5 RF3.8L5 RA3.4Home L52-3vs Boston Red Sox L55-0

New York Yankees team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.8 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Yankees are scoring 3.2 runs per game (2-3) while Boston Red Sox are at 5.2 (4-1); New York Yankees pitchers are allowing 3.2 earned runs per game versus 2.6 for Boston Red Sox.

3.2
New York Yankees runs/G
5.2
Boston Red Sox runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York YankeesBoston Red Sox
Runs / game3.25.2
Hits / game7.86.8
Home runs / game1.21.4
Walks drawn / game3.44.2
Batter K / game9.66.0
Earned runs allowed / game3.22.6
Pitching K / game6.06.4
Walks allowed / game3.62.8
L5 record2-34-1

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox. Includes analysis on key players like Jarren Duran. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox stats and odds.</p>

Jarren Duran (BOS) Over 0.5 Hits (-189)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Jarren Duran for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a good choice considering his recent performance data. Duran's overall hit average in the last five games is 1.2, which suggests he is likely to hit at least once in the upcoming game. Additionally, his batting average against the Yankees is also strong at 1 hit per game. Duran's current overall hit streak is 9 games, and specifically for away games, it's 4. This consistent performance indicates a high probability of him maintaining the streak. His Plate Appearances (PA) averages also support this, with 4.8 overall and 4.6 for away games, providing ample opportunities to score hits. Therefore, Duran's recent track record, combined with his performance against the Yankees, make this bet a promising one.

Aaron Judge (NYY) Over 0.5 Hits (-222)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Aaron Judge has a strong performance record that supports the bet for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market. Over the last five games, his overall hits average is 1.8, which is well above the line of 0.5. When playing at home, his hits average increases to 2, indicating that he performs better on his home ground. Furthermore, his current hit streak is 4, both overall and at home, which shows consistency in his performance. His plate appearances (PA) averages also support this bet, with an overall PA average of 4.4 and a home PA average of 4. This indicates that he has ample opportunities to hit in each game. His averages against the opponent, Boston Red Sox, are also favorable with a hits average of 1.2 and a PA average of 4.2. These stats suggest a high probability of Judge achieving over 0.5 hits in the upcoming game.

Aaron Judge (NYY) Over 0.5 Hits (-227)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Aaron Judge has shown consistent performance, particularly at home games, making the over bet a good choice. His overall average hits in the last five games is 1.8, and at home, it rises to 2. This indicates a strong likelihood of him hitting at least once in the upcoming game. His current hitting streak is 4, both overall and at home, which demonstrates consistency in his performance. Furthermore, his plate appearances (PA) average is above 4 in all scenarios (overall, at home, and against the opponent), providing him ample opportunities to hit. His average hits against the opponent, Boston Red Sox, is 1.2, again suggesting a high probability of him making a hit. Therefore, based on his recent performance and opportunities at the plate, betting on Aaron Judge for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is statistically justified.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 2 October 2025 at Yankee Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 3 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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