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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 7:16PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC)
Outdoor
Thu 2 Oct 2025, 10:08PM
20
Game markets graded
3
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: New York Yankees (Moneyline)
The model graded 23 markets for Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $162 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 81.4%, fair odds 1.23, book price -161, model edge +19.7%. Tip-off Thu 2 Oct 2025, 10:08PM at Yankee Stadium.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
New York Yankees
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York YankeesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Adley Rutschman COut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHDay-to-day
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Trevor Story SSOut
  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut

Probable pitcher

Sonny Gray SP

New York Yankees

  • Cody Bellinger LFOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:07PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ryan McMahon COL Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jarren Duran BOS Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Aaron Judge NYY Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York YankeesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

New York Yankees moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Yankees run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

New York Yankees spread form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxNo line posted

New York Yankees total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Yankees team totalNo line posted
1.0runs we expect
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.4Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

New York Yankees team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.2 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees — what the model found

Our model graded 23 betting markets for Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees — 20 on the game itself and 3 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
3
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 23 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 22 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — recent results

New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5 games; Boston Red Sox have won 3 of their last 5.

New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2ATLHome
W5–4ATLHome
W3–2ATLHome
L1–3STLHome
W2–0STLHome
Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–4ATHHome
L3–7ATHHome
W13–1ATHHome
W12–11CHWHome
W4–0CHWHome

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Yankees are scoring 3.2 runs per game (2-3) while Boston Red Sox are at 5.2 (4-1); New York Yankees pitchers are allowing 3.2 earned runs per game versus 2.6 for Boston Red Sox.

3.2
New York Yankees runs/G
5.2
Boston Red Sox runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York YankeesBoston Red Sox
Runs / game3.25.2
Hits / game7.86.8
Home runs / game1.21.4
Walks drawn / game3.44.2
Batter K / game9.66.0
Earned runs allowed / game3.22.6
Pitching K / game6.06.4
Walks allowed / game3.62.8
L5 record2-34-1

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — recent meetings

These two have met 5 times recently: New York Yankees won 1, Boston Red Sox won 4.

DateNew York YankeesBoston Red SoxWinner
Jun 2845Boston Red Sox
Jun 2714Boston Red Sox
Jun 2616Boston Red Sox
Jun 2536Boston Red Sox
Jun 761New York Yankees

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Cody Bellinger LFOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Carlos Rodon SPOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT
Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Adley Rutschman COUT
Masataka Yoshida DHDAY-TO-DAY
Triston Casas 1BOUT
Trevor Story SSOUT
Roman Anthony LFOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Curtis Mead 3BOUT
Zack Kelly RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox. Includes analysis on key players like Jarren Duran. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox stats and odds.

Jarren Duran (BOS) Over 0.5 Hits (-189)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Jarren Duran for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a good choice considering his recent performance data. Duran's overall hit average in the last five games is 1.2, which suggests he is likely to hit at least once in the upcoming game. Additionally, his batting average against the Yankees is also strong at 1 hit per game. Duran's current overall hit streak is 9 games, and specifically for away games, it's 4. This consistent performance indicates a high probability of him maintaining the streak. His Plate Appearances (PA) averages also support this, with 4.8 overall and 4.6 for away games, providing ample opportunities to score hits. Therefore, Duran's recent track record, combined with his performance against the Yankees, make this bet a promising one.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Yankees, or as Yankees vs Sox. The most recent game between them was Thursday 2 October 2025 at Yankee Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 3 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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