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Model picks & player props
Boston Red Sox
VS
New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 7:25AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC)
Outdoor
Sun 30 Aug 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Yankees Moneyline +132

The model graded 70 markets for Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $232 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 30 Aug 2026, 5:35PM at Yankee Stadium.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win41.9%
The price says42.7%
Best price+132
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline New York Yankees Lean42% chance +132
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Lean48% chance
Spread Long-shot26% chance
Spread Long-shot19% chance
Batter - Total Bases × 3 props Highup to 64%
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 10 props Leanup to 58%
Batter - RBIs × 7 props
Batter - Singles × 8 props
Batter - Walks × 7 props
Batter - Doubles × 8 props
Batter - Stolen Bases × 2 props
Batter - Runs Scored × 3 props
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 1 prop
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
New York Yankees
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,403+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York YankeesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Boston Red Sox

  • Willson Contreras 1BDay-to-day
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut

Probable pitcher

Ranger Suarez SP

New York Yankees

  • Ryan McMahon 3BOut
  • George Lombard Jr. SSDay-to-day
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Fernando Cruz RPOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Ryan Weathers SPOut

Probable pitcher

Will Warren SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 9:52PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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The plate umpire

Behind the plate: Vic Carapazza. Games he has called average 10.3 runs across 25 games on record — the league average this season is 9.2. Full umpire record →

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Adley Rutschman BAL Batter - Total Bases
Amed Rosario CIN Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Jarren Duran BOS Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Trent Grisham SDP Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Heliot Ramos Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York YankeesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA0.8Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L53-2Free board17-17

New York Yankees moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Yankees run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA0.8Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

New York Yankees spread form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxNo line posted

New York Yankees total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Yankees team totalNo line posted
1.3runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA0.8Home L53-2vs Boston Red Sox L53-2

New York Yankees team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — recent results

New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5 games; Boston Red Sox have won 1 of their last 5.

New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W16–1BOSHome
W9–2BOSHome
L0–6BOSHome
W1–0BOSHome
L1–5HOUHome
Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–16NYYAway
L2–9NYYAway
W6–0NYYAway
L0–1NYYAway
L0–4MIAAway

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Yankees are scoring 0.4 runs per game (1-4) while Boston Red Sox are at 2.0 (3-2); New York Yankees pitchers are allowing 1.0 earned runs per game versus 0.6 for Boston Red Sox.

0.4
New York Yankees runs/G
2.0
Boston Red Sox runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York YankeesBoston Red Sox
Runs / game0.42.0
Hits / game1.42.6
Home runs / game0.20.4
Walks drawn / game0.21.2
Batter K / game1.22.4
Earned runs allowed / game1.00.6
Pitching K / game1.22.4
Walks allowed / game0.21.0
L5 record1-43-2

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: New York Yankees won 4, Boston Red Sox won 6.

DateNew York YankeesBoston Red SoxWinner
Aug 30161New York Yankees
Aug 2992New York Yankees
Aug 2906Boston Red Sox
Aug 2810New York Yankees
Jun 2845Boston Red Sox
Jun 2714Boston Red Sox
Jun 2616Boston Red Sox
Jun 2536Boston Red Sox
Jun 761New York Yankees
Jun 535Boston Red Sox

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Ryan McMahon 3BOUT
George Lombard Jr. SSDAY-TO-DAY
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Fernando Cruz RPOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Ryan Weathers SPOUT
Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Willson Contreras 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Curtis Mead 3BOUT
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Masataka Yoshida DHOUT
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Triston Casas 1BOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

The umpire factor

Home-plate umpire: Vic Carapazza. His games average 8.8 total runs against a league average of 8.9.

8.8
Runs in his games
8.9
League average

Vic Carapazza called this game behind the plate. Across 187 games his days at the park bring about the usual amount of scoring.

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees — model preview

Our Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees prediction for August 31, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 31, 2026 our model has run Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA) Under 0.5 Singles (-208), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Sox vs Yankees, or as Yankees vs Sox. The most recent game between them was Sunday 30 August 2026 at Yankee Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 58 meetings on record
Boston Red Sox 31–25 across the last 58 meetings · 2 draws · these games average 8.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
30 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees16–1New York Yankees
29 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees9–2New York Yankees
28 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees1–0New York Yankees
28 Jun 2026New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox5–4Boston Red Sox
27 Jun 2026New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox4–1Boston Red Sox
26 Jun 2026New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox6–1Boston Red Sox
25 Jun 2026New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox6–3Boston Red Sox
7 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees6–1New York Yankees
5 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees3–5Boston Red Sox
23 Apr 2026New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox2–4New York Yankees

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 58 meetings on file.

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