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The latest Bet Better model pick for Paul Goldschmidt is Under 0.5 on Batter - RBIs.
On the Batter - RBIs market the model assigns a model win probability of 79%, versus the book's implied 74%, for a model edge of +5.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:19PM UTC
MLB

Paul Goldschmidt

STL

+5.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - RBIs Under 0.5 -278 (1.36)
+5.5% Edge
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees
Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Tue 21 Jul, 11:05PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
79.0%
Implied Probability
73.5%
Model Edge
+5.5%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - RBIs79.0%—73.5%1.27+5.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Paul Goldschmidt (STL) Under 0.5 RBIs (-278)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Yankees gear up to face the Pirates, all eyes will be on Paul Goldschmidt, but betting on him to drive in a run might not be the play. The Yankees’ pitching staff has been lights out lately, boasting a stingy ERA that’s kept opposing hitters at bay. Goldschmidt, despite his accolades, has faced tough matchups against elite arms like Gerrit Cole, who has a knack for neutralizing power hitters. Moreover, the Yankees have tightened up their defense, ranking among the top in the league for limiting RBIs. Goldschmidt's recent form shows a dip in production against right-handed pitchers, and the current lineup of Yankees pitchers is well-equipped to exploit those weaknesses. Given all these factors, the prediction of him finishing under 0.5 RBIs feels more than reasonable—especially in a game where runs might be at a premium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Batter - RBIsUpcoming gameU 0.5 -278+5.5% edge
90%hit L10
Streak5L2085%

Paul Goldschmidt MLB rbis: cleared under 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Current line U 0.5 at -278 (+5.5% model edge).

Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
Streak3L2050%
O 0.560%
O 1.510%
Game log vs O 0.5avg 1.3 · hi 2 · lo 0
1202

Paul Goldschmidt MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.510%

Paul Goldschmidt MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
Streak3L2055%
O 0.560%
O 1.530%
O 2.520%
O 3.510%

Paul Goldschmidt MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%
O 1.510%

Paul Goldschmidt MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
Streak3L2050%
O 0.560%
O 1.510%

Paul Goldschmidt MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
0.6avg walks · L5
Streak2
O 0.550%

Paul Goldschmidt MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games; averaging 0.6 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -196 ✗ MISS
10 Jul 26 New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -250 ✓ HIT
27 Jun 26 New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -238 ✓ HIT
22 Jun 26 New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers Batter - Hits — — — Pending
20 Jun 26 Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees Batter - Hits — — — Pending

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About This Player

Paul Goldschmidt (STL) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Paul Goldschmidt is Under 0.5 on Batter - RBIs. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.5% on this pick. Their next game is Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees on Tuesday 21 July at Yankee Stadium, Bronx (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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