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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:18AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Outdoor
Sun 21 Sep 2025, 5:35PM
6
Game Picks
4
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Baltimore Orioles (Moneyline)
For New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles (MLB), model win probability 49.6%, fair odds 2.02, book price +112, model edge +2.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 21 Sep 2025, 5:35PM at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Baltimore OriolesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Max Fried SPOut

Probable pitcher

Ryan Weathers SP

Baltimore Orioles

  • Adley Rutschman COut
  • Samuel Basallo CDay-to-day
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Chris Bassitt SPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Shane Baz SP
Availability updated Jul 20, 11:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Gunnar Henderson BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Aaron Judge NYY Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Colton Cowser BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBaltimore OriolesNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.4L5 RA2.0Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L53-2Win rec9-5

Baltimore Orioles moneyline form: last five 4-1, 4.4 runs/gm.

Run LineBaltimore Orioles run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.4L5 RA2.0Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L53-2ATS9-5

Baltimore Orioles spread form: last five 4-1, 4.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Baltimore Orioles vs New York YankeesNo line posted

Baltimore Orioles total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBaltimore Orioles team totalNo line posted
3.9implied team total
L5 RF4.4L5 RA2.0Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L53-2

Baltimore Orioles team total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.4 runs/gm.

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Baltimore Orioles are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while New York Yankees are at 3.2 (2-3); Baltimore Orioles pitchers are allowing 5.4 earned runs per game versus 3.2 for New York Yankees.

4.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
3.2
New York Yankees runs/G
Last 5 gamesBaltimore OriolesNew York Yankees
Runs / game4.03.2
Hits / game5.67.8
Home runs / game2.21.2
Walks drawn / game2.83.4
Batter K / game8.09.6
Earned runs allowed / game5.43.2
Pitching K / game5.46.0
Walks allowed / game3.63.6
L5 record3-22-3

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees. Includes analysis on key players like Aaron Judge. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees stats and odds.</p>

Aaron Judge (NYY) Over 0.5 Hits (-233)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The betting rationale for Over 0.5 on Aaron Judge is primarily based on his recent hitting performance and his consistent plate appearances. Over the last five games, Judge's overall and away average hits are 1.8 per game. This exceeds the bet line of 0.5, indicating a strong likelihood he'll hit at least once in the upcoming game. Moreover, Judge's average plate appearances per game, both overall and away, are 4.4, providing ample opportunities for him to hit. Additionally, his current hit streak stands at 4 games, both overall and away, suggesting he's in good form. While his average hits against the Orioles are slightly lower at 1.2, they still surpass the bet line. Therefore, based on these statistics, the Over 0.5 bet for Aaron Judge seems to be a good choice.

Aaron Judge (NYY) Over 0.5 Hits (-233)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Aaron Judge for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits Alternate market is a solid choice based on his recent performance. Over the last five games, Judge's overall hits average is 1.8, indicating a strong likelihood of at least one hit in the upcoming game. His plate appearances average is also high at 4.4, which means he generally has multiple opportunities to hit in each game. Furthermore, Judge is currently on a four-game hitting streak, both overall and in away games, showing consistency in his performance. While his average hits against the Orioles and in away games are slightly lower, they still suggest a reasonable chance of him achieving a hit. Therefore, the statistics suggest that betting on Judge to hit Over 0.5 is a good choice based on his recent performance and opportunities at bat.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees : Baltimore Orioles Win (+114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Baltimore Orioles show strong performance indicators, particularly in their home games, making them a solid bet for the Moneyline market. Their overall record in the last five games is 3-2, but notably, their record at home is 4-1. This suggests a strong home-field advantage. Additionally, their record against the New York Yankees is also favorable at 4-1. The Orioles have demonstrated a higher scoring average at home (5.6 runs) compared to the Yankees' away scoring average (3.2 runs). Although the Orioles have allowed more runs on average (4.6 runs at home), their scoring capabilities have been sufficient to secure victories. The combination of their home advantage, superior scoring average, and favorable record against the Yankees provide a compelling rationale for betting on the Orioles in this matchup.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees : Baltimore Orioles Win (+112)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Baltimore Orioles are a solid bet for this Moneyline market due to their recent performance, particularly at home. In their last five home games, the Orioles have a strong record of 4-1, indicating a good form on their home ground. Additionally, they have outperformed the Yankees in recent head-to-head encounters, with a 4-1 record. The Orioles have also shown a more potent offense at home, averaging 5.6 runs scored compared to the Yankees' 3.2 runs on the road. While the Orioles' run defense at home (4.6) is slightly higher than the Yankees' away defense (3.4), their superior offensive performance at home suggests they have the ability to outscore the Yankees. Therefore, the Orioles' recent form, head-to-head record, and home offensive efficiency make them a good choice for this bet.

Aaron Judge (NYY) Over 0.5 Hits (-263)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Aaron Judge for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a good choice based on his recent performance data. Judge has an impressive overall current hit streak of 4 games, indicating consistent performance. This consistency is mirrored in his away games, where he also has a hit streak of 4. His average hits in the last five games, both overall and away, stand at 1.8, well above the line of 0.5. Additionally, his average hits against the Orioles is 1.2, suggesting he performs well against this particular opponent. His plate appearances (PA) averages further support his ability to get hits, with 4.4 PA in the last five games overall and away, and 4.6 PA against the Orioles. These statistics suggest a high probability of Judge achieving over 0.5 hits in the upcoming game.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 21 September 2025 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The model has generated 6 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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