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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 7:16PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Outdoor
Sun 21 Sep 2025, 5:35PM
6
Game markets graded
4
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Baltimore Orioles (Moneyline)
The model graded 10 markets for New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $212 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 49.6%, fair odds 2.02, book price +112, model edge +2.5%. Tip-off Sun 21 Sep 2025, 5:35PM at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
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STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Baltimore OriolesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Cody Bellinger LFOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut

Baltimore Orioles

  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Samuel Basallo COut
  • Chris Bassitt SPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Trevor Rogers SP
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Gunnar Henderson BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Aaron Judge NYY Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Colton Cowser BAL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBaltimore OriolesNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L52-3Free board8-8

Baltimore Orioles moneyline form: last five 5-0, 2.2 runs/gm.

Run LineBaltimore Orioles run lineNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L52-3Free board10-9

Baltimore Orioles spread form: last five 5-0, 2.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Baltimore Orioles vs New York YankeesNo line posted

Baltimore Orioles total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBaltimore Orioles team totalNo line posted
1.8runs we expect
L5 RF2.2L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L52-3

Baltimore Orioles team total runs form: last five 5-0, 2.2 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles — what the model found

Our model graded 10 betting markets for New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles — 6 on the game itself and 4 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

6
Game markets graded
4
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 10 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 9 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles — recent results

Baltimore Orioles have won 2 of their last 5 games; New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5.

Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–5TEXAway
L1–2TEXAway
L1–5TEXAway
L1–4LAAHome
W5–2LAAHome
New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2ATLHome
W5–4ATLHome
W3–2ATLHome
L1–3STLHome
W2–0STLHome

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Baltimore Orioles are scoring 4.0 runs per game (3-2) while New York Yankees are at 3.2 (2-3); Baltimore Orioles pitchers are allowing 5.4 earned runs per game versus 3.2 for New York Yankees.

4.0
Baltimore Orioles runs/G
3.2
New York Yankees runs/G
Last 5 gamesBaltimore OriolesNew York Yankees
Runs / game4.03.2
Hits / game5.67.8
Home runs / game2.21.2
Walks drawn / game2.83.4
Batter K / game8.09.6
Earned runs allowed / game5.43.2
Pitching K / game5.46.0
Walks allowed / game3.63.6
L5 record3-22-3

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Blaze Alexander 3BOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Samuel Basallo COUT
Chris Bassitt SPOUT
Colin Selby RPOUT
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Keegan Akin RPOUT
New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Cody Bellinger LFOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Carlos Rodon SPOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees. Includes analysis on key players like Aaron Judge. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees stats and odds.

Aaron Judge (NYY) Over 0.5 Hits (-233)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The betting rationale for Over 0.5 on Aaron Judge is primarily based on his recent hitting performance and his consistent plate appearances. Over the last five games, Judge's overall and away average hits are 1.8 per game. This exceeds the bet line of 0.5, indicating a strong likelihood he'll hit at least once in the upcoming game. Moreover, Judge's average plate appearances per game, both overall and away, are 4.4, providing ample opportunities for him to hit. Additionally, his current hit streak stands at 4 games, both overall and away, suggesting he's in good form. While his average hits against the Orioles are slightly lower at 1.2, they still surpass the bet line. Therefore, based on these statistics, the Over 0.5 bet for Aaron Judge seems to be a good choice.

🔒 The other 4 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Yankees vs Orioles, or as Orioles vs Yankees. The most recent game between them was Sunday 21 September 2025 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The model has generated 6 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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