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The latest Bet Better model pick for Francisco Lindor is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 65%, for a model edge of +5.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 18, 9:28AM UTC
MLB

Francisco Lindor

NYM

+5.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -189 (1.53)
+5.7% Edge
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 8:05PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.1%
Implied Probability
65.4%
Model Edge
+5.7%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases71.1%—65.4%1.41+5.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Francisco Lindor (NYM) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Philadelphia Phillies take on the New York Mets, all eyes will be on Francisco Lindor, but backing him to go over 1.5 total bases feels like a risky play. Lindor has been solid this season, yet recent trends suggest he might struggle against the Phillies' ace. The right-hander has been adept at limiting opposing batters, holding them to a low on-base percentage. In their last few encounters, Lindor has found it tough to make significant impacts, often getting caught in tough at-bats against the Phillies' bullpen that has been surprisingly effective lately. Factor in the Mets' inconsistent offensive performance, and it paints a picture of Lindor potentially coming in under that 1.5 mark. Given the circumstances, taking the under on his total bases feels like a savvy move with high potential for success.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Batter - Total BasesUpcoming vs PHIU 1.5 -189+5.7% edge
80%hit L10
Streak4
Game log vs U 1.53 / 3 hit
000

Francisco Lindor MLB total bases: cleared under 1.5 in 80% of the last 10 games vs PHI. Current line U 1.5 at -189 (+5.7% model edge).

Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Francisco Lindor MLB hitsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Francisco Lindor MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%
O 1.520%
O 2.520%
O 3.520%
O 4.520%

Francisco Lindor MLB hits + runs + rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%
O 1.520%

Francisco Lindor MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
O 0.550%
O 1.530%

Francisco Lindor MLB runs scored: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
16 Jul 26 New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -167 ✗ MISS
10 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 0.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs 1.5 Over +102 ✗ MISS
09 Jul 26 Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending
06 Jul 26 New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves Batter - Total Bases — — — Pending

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About This Player

Francisco Lindor (NYM) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Francisco Lindor is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.7% on this pick. Their next game is New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday 18 July at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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