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The latest Bet Better model pick for Juan Soto is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 83%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +21.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:42PM UTC
MLB

Juan Soto

WSN

+21.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -164 (1.61) · $100→$161
+21.1% Edge
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets
Citi Field, Queens (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Fri 24 Jul, 11:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
OUT
The Mets placed Soto (calf) on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a strained left calf.
updated Jul 25, 7:17PM UTC · 15d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
83.2%
Implied Probability
62.1%
Model Edge
+21.1%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases83.2%—62.1%1.20+21.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Juan Soto (WSN) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

When the Mets welcome the Dodgers to town, all eyes will be on Juan Soto. While Soto’s talent is undeniable, recent trends suggest he might struggle to find gaps against a formidable Dodgers pitching staff. Over the last two weeks, he’s been sitting on an underwhelming .220 batting average, and to complicate matters, he faces Clayton Kershaw, who’s been brilliant at limiting hard contact. Kershaw's seasoned approach has made him a nightmare for left-handed hitters, and Soto's plate discipline will be tested against his sharp curveball. Moreover, the Mets' lineup has been faltering, averaging just a few runs nightly, which could further hamper Soto’s opportunities. With expectation set at under 1.5 total bases, this matchup might just play into the hands of the Dodgers’ ace, making the under a compelling play. If Soto can't find his rhythm early, he could easily fall short in this high-stakes battle.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2054%
O 0.550%
O 1.510%

Juan Soto MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.510%
O 2.510%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%

Juan Soto MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2054%
O 0.550%
O 1.520%
O 2.510%

Juan Soto MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%
O 1.510%

Juan Soto MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%

Juan Soto MLB singlesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%

Juan Soto MLB walksseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Jul 26 Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -164 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -164 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Juan Soto (WSN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Juan Soto is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +21.1% on this pick. Their next game is Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets on Friday 24 July at Citi Field, Queens (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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