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The latest Bet Better model pick for Juan Soto is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +8.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:06PM UTC
MLB

Juan Soto

WSN

+8.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -164 (1.61)
+8.6% Edge
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets
Citi Field, Queens (NYC), New York · Outdoor
Sun 12 Jul, 5:40PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
70.8%
Implied Probability
62.1%
Model Edge
+8.6%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases70.8%—62.1%1.41+8.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Juan Soto (WSN) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Boston Red Sox, all eyes will be on Juan Soto, but there’s a compelling case to consider betting the under on his total bases at 1.5. Soto has faced a tough stretch lately, managing just a handful of hits in his last few games. Against left-handers, his numbers have dipped, and with the Red Sox sending a skilled southpaw to the mound, it could be a challenging day for him at the plate. Moreover, the Mets' pitching staff has been solid against lefties, boasting a low opponent batting average that stifles even the hottest hitters. Considering that Soto’s recent form combined with the pitching matchup may limit his opportunities, betting the under seems like a savvy play. As the game unfolds, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Soto struggle to find gaps, keeping him under that crucial total.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%
O 1.510%

Juan Soto MLB hitsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.520%

Juan Soto MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
L2050%
O 0.550%
O 1.520%
O 2.510%

Juan Soto MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.510%

Juan Soto MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak3
O 0.5100%
O 1.5100%

Juan Soto MLB runs scored: cleared over 0.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.530%
O 1.510%

Juan Soto MLB singlesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
0.6avg walks · L5
L2055%
O 0.550%
O 1.510%

Juan Soto MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games; averaging 0.6 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -164 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Juan Soto (WSN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Juan Soto is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.6% on this pick. Their next game is Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets on Sunday 12 July at Citi Field, Queens (NYC). Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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