Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Model picks & player props
Houston Astros
VS
New York Mets

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 28, 12:04AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Fri 28 Aug 2026, 11:10PM
3
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 8 Total Runs +100

The model graded 3 markets for Houston Astros vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $200 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Fri 28 Aug 2026, 11:10PM at Citi Field.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win68.0%
The price says50.0%
Best price+100
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 8 High68% chance +100
Spread High71% chance
Moneyline Lean56% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 18 bookmakers compared
Winner
Houston Astros1.83-120Hard Rock Bet
New York Mets2.10+110ESPN BET
Total runs
Over7.51.91-110Fanatics
Under7.52.05+105Hard Rock Bet
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 936 of 1,930 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 26
Under 4.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $440
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
8
+ 2 more markets
Unlock with Pro
🔒

Unlock every graded pick for this game

All 3 game markets and 0 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,241+ members.

Bet Better Unlock all game picks
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

Bet Better Unlock calibrated edges
Cancel anytime · full verified record at /results

Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line

Best price right now

ESPN BET
on New York Mets
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Houston Astros

  • Mike Burrows SPOut
  • Brice Matthews CFOut
  • Carlos Correa SSOut
  • Brandon Walter SPOut

Probable pitcher

Hayden Wesneski SP

New York Mets

  • Bo Bichette 3BDay-to-day
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Sean Manaea SP
Availability updated Aug 27, 11:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Houston Astros vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

3 markets live
Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Houston AstrosOver 8 +100
68%over %
11.8proj. runs
L5 RF0.8L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs Houston Astros L52-3

New York Mets total runs vs Houston Astros is live and our model makes it 68% (HIGH); proj. runs 11.8.

Run LineNew York Mets run line+1.5 -161
71%cover %
+1.9proj. margin
L5 RF0.8L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs Houston Astros L52-3

New York Mets spread vs Houston Astros is live and our model makes it 71% (HIGH); proj. margin +1.9.

MoneylineNew York Mets to win+108
56%model win %
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs Houston Astros L52-3

New York Mets moneyline vs Houston Astros is live and our model makes it 56% (LEAN); L5 record 1-4.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
0.7runs we expect
L5 RF0.8L5 RA1.0Home L52-3vs Houston Astros L52-3

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.8 runs/gm.

Houston Astros @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 3 betting markets for Houston Astros at New York Mets — 3 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

3
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 3 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 2 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
Unlock every pick
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

Houston Astros vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5 games; Houston Astros have won 2 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–8MILHome
W3–2MILHome
L1–2CHWAway
W10–5CHWAway
L4–6CHWAway
Houston Astros — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–9NYYAway
W9–7NYYAway
L6–7ATHHome
W4–0ATHHome
L3–4ATHHome

Houston Astros vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: New York Mets won 3, Houston Astros won 2.

DateNew York MetsHouston AstrosWinner
Mar 2157Houston Astros
Mar 1962New York Mets
Mar 1428Houston Astros
Mar 143New York Mets
Feb 2650New York Mets
Feb 2466Draw

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Bo Bichette 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Juan Soto LFOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Houston Astros
PlayerStatus
Mike Burrows SPOUT
Brice Matthews CFOUT
Carlos Correa SSOUT
Brandon Walter SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Houston Astros vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Astros vs Mets, or as Mets vs Astros. The next scheduled game is Friday 28 August 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 3 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 6 meetings
New York Mets 3–2 across the last 6 meetings · 1 draw
DateGameScoreWinner
21 Mar 2026Houston Astros @ New York Mets5–7Houston Astros
19 Mar 2026New York Mets @ Houston Astros2–6New York Mets
14 Mar 2026New York Mets @ Houston Astros8–2Houston Astros
1 Mar 2026Houston Astros @ New York Mets4–3New York Mets
26 Feb 2026New York Mets @ Houston Astros0–5New York Mets
24 Feb 2026Houston Astros @ New York Mets6–6Draw
Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.