Here are our AFL picks for Friday 4 September 2026. Our model likes 7 bets here. The one it likes most is Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 21.5 Disposals, priced at -714 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 21.5 Disposals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Geelong Cats play Carlton Blues in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 21.5 Disposals. It was priced at -714 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Connor Budarick (Western Bulldogs) Over 9.5 Disposals. It was priced at -400 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Bailey Dale (Western Bulldogs) Over 69.5 player_afl_fantasy_points_over (-588)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Bailey Dale (Western Bulldogs) Over 69.5 player_afl_fantasy_points_over. It was priced at -588 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Bailey Dale (Western Bulldogs) Over 19.5 Disposals (-588)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Bailey Dale (Western Bulldogs) Over 19.5 Disposals. It was priced at -588 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 74.5 player_afl_fantasy_points_over (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Geelong Cats play Carlton Blues in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 74.5 player_afl_fantasy_points_over. It was priced at -714 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Bailey Dale (Western Bulldogs) Over 15.5 player_kicks_over (-400)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Bailey Dale (Western Bulldogs) Over 15.5 player_kicks_over. It was priced at -400 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Luke Nankervis (Adelaide Crows) Over 10.5 Disposals (-714)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Luke Nankervis (Adelaide Crows) Over 10.5 Disposals. It was priced at -714 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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