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The latest Bet Better model pick for Isaac Heeney is Over 21.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +2.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 7:38PM UTC
AFL

Isaac Heeney

Sydney Swans

+2.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 21.5 -769 (1.13)
+2.9% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
91.4%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+2.9%
Predicted Value
28.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals91.4%88.5%1.09+2.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Isaac Heeney (Sydney Swans) Over 21.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Isaac Heeney has been an absolute machine on the field lately, consistently racking up disposals like a seasoned veteran. In his last five home games, he's been a dominant force, averaging a whopping 30 disposals per game, well above the set line of 21.5. And let's not forget his efficiency, with a solid 66.7% disposal efficiency rate to boot. Facing off against Port Adelaide, Heeney has historically performed well, averaging 20.3 disposals against them in his last five matchups. With his current form and track record, it's no surprise he's riding an impressive eight-game hit streak for disposals at home. If you're looking for a reliable bet to snag some solid returns, backing Heeney to go over 21.5 disposals in this game at the SCG seems like a smart play given his recent form and historical performance against the Power.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Port Adelaide PowerO 25.5 -200
60%hit L10 O 25.5
25.6avg disposals L5
Home30vs Port Adelaide24.2Season best32
O 23.580%
O 24.580%
O 25.560%
O 26.560%
O 27.550%
O 28.550%
Game log vs line (O 25.5)3 / 10 hit
20241932173222302414

Isaac Heeney has gone over 25.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 25.6 disposals, best 32). Current line: Over 25.5 at -200.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
80%hit L10 O 0.5
0.8avg goals L5
Home1.8vs Port Adelaide1.6Season best3
O 0.580%
O 1.530%
O 2.510%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 1.3 · hi 3 · lo 0
0200113321

Isaac Heeney has gone over 0.5 goals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.8 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 20.5 Over -714 ✗ MISS
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 21.5 Over -769 ✗ MISS
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 22.5 Over -500 ✗ MISS
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals Pending
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Isaac Heeney (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Isaac Heeney is Over 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.9% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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