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The latest Bet Better model pick for Isaac Heeney is Over 25.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +9.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 4:58PM UTC
AFL

Isaac Heeney

Sydney Swans

+9.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 25.5 -159 (1.63)
+9.8% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 9:40AM
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Model Probability
71.1%
Implied Probability
61.3%
Model Edge
+9.8%
Predicted Value
28.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.1%—61.3%1.41+9.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Isaac Heeney (Sydney Swans) Over 25.5 Disposals (-159)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Isaac Heeney is primed to shine in the upcoming showdown against the Adelaide Crows at the SCG. With a stellar track record of 30.8 disposals per game in his last five home matches, Heeney's form is nothing short of impressive. His ability to rack up possessions, maintain a solid disposal efficiency of 70.9%, and cover an average of 465.4 meters gained per game makes him a key player to watch. Against the Crows, he has consistently recorded 17.3 disposals in his last five matchups, indicating a strong likelihood of surpassing the set line of 25.5 disposals. Heeney's recent form, coupled with his current hit streak of 7 at home, positions him as a reliable choice to snag this bet in the 'Player Disposals Over' market.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Adelaide CrowsO 25.5 -154+10.5% edge
70%hit L10 O 25.5
28.4avg disposals L5
Home30.8vs Adelaide Crows19.8Season best32
O 23.590%
O 24.580%
O 25.570%
O 26.570%
O 27.560%
O 28.560%
Game log vs line (O 25.5)3 / 10 hit
20241932173222302414

Isaac Heeney has gone over 25.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 28.4 disposals, best 32). Current line: Over 25.5 at -154, model edge +10.5%.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
80%hit L10 O 0.5
1avg goals L5
Home1.8vs Adelaide Crows2.2Season best3
O 0.580%
O 1.530%
O 2.520%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 1.3 · hi 3 · lo 0
0200113321

Isaac Heeney has gone over 0.5 goals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 25.5 Over -208 ✗ MISS
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 24.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 23.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Isaac Heeney (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Isaac Heeney is Over 25.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.8% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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