Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for James Jordon is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 87%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +1.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 8:04AM UTC
AFL

James Jordon

Sydney Swans

+1.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -588 (1.17)
+1.7% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
87.1%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+1.7%
Predicted Value
17.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals87.1%—85.5%1.15+1.7%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

James Jordon (Sydney Swans) Over 11.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to deliver on the disposals front, James Jordon is a prime candidate for Friday night footy action at the SCG. Over his last five home games, Jordon has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 17.4 disposals, comfortably exceeding the 11.5 line set for this matchup against the Adelaide Crows. His recent form boasts impressive numbers across the board, with a knack for finding the footy in contested situations and making smart decisions with an 88.2% disposal efficiency. Jordon's ability to cover the ground efficiently, gaining an average of 237.8 meters per game, showcases his impact on the game's flow. With a current hit streak of 7 at home and a stellar hit rate of 7 out of 7 in recent games, Jordon is poised to continue his midfield dominance and easily surpass the 11.5 disposals mark against the Crows.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Adelaide CrowsO 14.5 -156+9.1% edge
50%hit L10 O 14.5
14.6avg disposals L5
Home17.4vs Adelaide Crows15.6Season best20
O 12.590%
O 13.570%
O 14.550%
O 15.540%
O 16.540%
O 17.530%
Game log vs line (O 14.5)4 / 10 hit
181610781518121013

James Jordon has gone over 14.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 14.6 disposals, best 20). Current line: Over 14.5 at -156, model edge +9.1%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

James Jordon (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for James Jordon is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.7% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.