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The latest Bet Better model pick for James Jordon is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 77%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +8.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 11:00AM UTC
AFL

James Jordon

Sydney Swans

+8.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -217 (1.46)
+8.2% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
76.7%
Implied Probability
68.5%
Model Edge
+8.2%
Predicted Value
17.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.7%68.5%1.30+8.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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James Jordon (Sydney Swans) Over 13.5 Disposals (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's dive into why James Jordon is a prime target for hitting Over 13.5 disposals in the upcoming clash between Sydney Swans and Port Adelaide Power at the SCG. Jordon has been a midfield maestro, averaging 16.4 disposals in his last five home games, comfortably exceeding the proposed line. His recent form against Port Adelaide also shines, boasting a solid average of 15.3 disposals in their past encounters. With a knack for contested possessions (averaging 4.8) and efficient ball use (82.7% disposal efficiency), Jordon is a pivotal player in the Swans' setup, consistently racking up the numbers. Add in his knack for intercepts and metres gained, and you've got a player primed to deliver the goods. Backing Jordon to snag more than 13.5 touches is a smart play, given his recent consistency and matchup history. Expect him to split the middle and help carry the Swans to victory.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Port Adelaide PowerO 14.5 -149
12.4avg disposals L5
Home16.4vs Port Adelaide12.6Season best20
O 12.580%
O 13.550%
O 14.540%
O 15.540%
O 16.540%
O 17.530%
Game log vs line (O 14.5)4 / 10 hit
181610781518121013

James Jordon has gone over 14.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 12.4 disposals, best 20). Current line: Over 14.5 at -149.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 10.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 11.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 12.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals Pending

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About This Player

James Jordon (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for James Jordon is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.2% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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