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Model picks & player props
Gold Coast Suns
VS
Adelaide Crows

Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 5:39PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Outdoor
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 10:10AM
10
Game markets graded
13
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 174.5 (Total Points)
The model graded 23 markets for Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $190 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 66.5%, fair odds 1.50, book price -111, model edge +13.9%. Tip-off Sat 11 Jul 2026, 10:10AM at Adelaide Oval.

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Under
166.5
+ 9 more markets
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🔒

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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Gold Coast SunsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Gold Coast SunsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Suns

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Crows

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Noah Anderson Gold Coast SUNS Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bailey Humphrey Gold Coast SUNS Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Josh Rachele Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jed Walter Gold Coast SUNS Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Taylor Walker Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows — what the model found

Our model graded 23 betting markets for Gold Coast Suns at Adelaide Crows — 10 on the game itself and 13 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

10
Game markets graded
13
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 23 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 22 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows — recent results

Adelaide Crows have won 4 of their last 5 games; Gold Coast Suns have won 1 of their last 5.

Adelaide Crows — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W63–54RICHHome
W145–73ESSAway
L74–108COLLHome
W87–71SYDAway
W128–49SUNSHome
Gold Coast Suns — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W79–77GWSAway
L105–114MELBHome
L97–110CARLAway
L68–77WBHome
L49–128ADELAway

Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Adelaide Crows won 1, Gold Coast Suns won 0.

DateAdelaide CrowsGold Coast SunsWinner
Jul 1112849Adelaide Crows

Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows — model preview

Unlock potential winning bets for Adelaide Crows playing Gold Coast Suns. Includes analysis on key players like Ben Keays. Analysis includes AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Adelaide Crows vs Gold Coast Suns stats and odds.

Ben Keays (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Ben Keays snagging goals at Adelaide Oval, the numbers paint a picture of a player in red-hot form. Over his last five home games, Keays has been a goal-scoring machine, averaging 2 goals per game with an impressive goal accuracy of 71.7%. He's been a constant threat inside 50, averaging 3 inside 50s and 0.8 marks inside 50. His recent performance against Gold Coast Suns has also been solid, averaging 1 goal per game in their matchups. With a current hit streak of 6 at home and 5 overall, Keays is in the zone. The data suggests that Keays is not just likely to snag a goal but could very well bag multiple goals in this upcoming clash. Betting on Ben Keays to score over 0.5 goals seems like a no-brainer in this matchup.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
11 Jul 26 Total Points Over 152.5 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Spread Gold Coast Suns +17.5 ✗ MISS
11 Jul 26 Moneyline Gold Coast Suns ✗ MISS
11 Jul 26 Total Points Under 166.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Suns vs Crows, or as Crows vs Suns. The most recent game between them was Saturday 11 July 2026 at Adelaide Oval. The model has generated 10 game picks and 13 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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