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Model picks & player props
Gold Coast Suns
VS
Adelaide Crows

Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 8:47PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Outdoor
Sat 11 Jul 2026, 10:10AM
10
Game markets graded
13
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 174.5 Total Points -111

The model graded 23 markets for Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $190 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 11 Jul 2026, 10:10AM at Adelaide Oval.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win66.5%
The price says52.6%
Best price-111
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Points Under 174.5 High67% chance -111
Moneyline Lean41% chance
Spread High61% chance
Total Points High61% chance
Total Points Lean59% chance
Disposals × 4 props Highup to 84%
Goals × 9 props Highup to 93%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Points
Under
166.5
+ 9 more markets
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All 10 game markets and 13 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,376+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Gold Coast SunsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Gold Coast SunsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Suns

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Crows

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Noah Anderson Gold Coast SUNS Disposals
Bailey Humphrey Gold Coast SUNS Goals
Josh Rachele Adelaide Crows Goals
Jed Walter Gold Coast SUNS Goals
Taylor Walker Adelaide Crows Goals

+ 13 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows — what the model found

Our model graded 23 betting markets for Gold Coast Suns at Adelaide Crows — 10 on the game itself and 13 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

10
Game markets graded
13
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 23 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 22 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows — recent results

Adelaide Crows have won 3 of their last 5 games; Gold Coast Suns have won 2 of their last 5.

Adelaide Crows — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W157–101GWSHome
L88–112FREAway
W63–54RICHHome
W145–73ESSAway
L74–108COLLHome
Gold Coast Suns — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W103–80STKAway
L53–95BLAway
W79–77GWSAway
L105–114MELBHome
L97–110CARLAway

Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Adelaide Crows won 1, Gold Coast Suns won 0.

DateAdelaide CrowsGold Coast SunsWinner
Jul 1112849Adelaide Crows

Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows — model preview

Unlock potential winning bets for Adelaide Crows playing Gold Coast Suns. Includes analysis on key players like Ben Keays. Analysis includes AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Adelaide Crows vs Gold Coast Suns stats and odds.

Ben Keays (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Ben Keays snagging goals at Adelaide Oval, the numbers paint a picture of a player in red-hot form. Over his last five home games, Keays has been a goal-scoring machine, averaging 2 goals per game with an impressive goal accuracy of 71.7%. He's been a constant threat inside 50, averaging 3 inside 50s and 0.8 marks inside 50. His recent performance against Gold Coast Suns has also been solid, averaging 1 goal per game in their matchups. With a current hit streak of 6 at home and 5 overall, Keays is in the zone. The data suggests that Keays is not just likely to snag a goal but could very well bag multiple goals in this upcoming clash. Betting on Ben Keays to score over 0.5 goals seems like a no-brainer in this matchup.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
11 Jul 26 Total Points Over 152.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Suns vs Crows, or as Crows vs Suns. The most recent game between them was Saturday 11 July 2026 at Adelaide Oval. The model has generated 10 game picks and 13 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 1 meeting
Adelaide Crows 1–0 across the last meeting
DateGameScoreWinner
11 Jul 2026Gold Coast SUNS @ Adelaide Crows128–49Adelaide Crows
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