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The latest Bet Better model pick for Logan McDonald is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 88%, versus the book's implied 87%, for a model edge of +1.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 2:25PM UTC
AFL

Logan McDonald

Sydney Swans

+1.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -667 (1.15) · $100→$115
+1.5% Edge
Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 3:05AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
88.5%
Implied Probability
87.0%
Model Edge
+1.5%
Predicted Value
1.4 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals88.5%—87.0%1.13+1.5%

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AI Analysis

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Logan McDonald (Sydney Swans) Over 0.5 Goals (-667)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

If you're looking for a solid AFL player prop bet this weekend, keep your eyes on Logan McDonald from the Sydney Swans. The young gun has been on fire recently, averaging 2.4 goals in his last five away games. His accuracy has been impressive at 83.3%, showing he knows how to split the big sticks when given the chance. With an average of 3 shots on goal per game, McDonald isn't afraid to take his chances. Facing St Kilda, against whom he has averaged 2 goals in their last five encounters, the stage is set for him to snag at least one goal this time around. McDonald is riding a hot streak, hitting the mark in his last 10 games overall. So, it's no surprise that the model predicts him to hit the back of the net again. Betting on Logan McDonald to score over 0.5 goals seems like a smart move for this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.3avg goals recent
Season best4
Goals last 10avg 1.3 · hi 4 · lo 0
4110103120

Logan McDonald has a goals high of 4 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -667 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals 0.5 Over -417 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Logan McDonald (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Logan McDonald is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.5% on this pick. Their next game is Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints on Saturday 1 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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