Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Logan McDonald is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 49 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 49%, implied 53%, edge +2.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 4:59AM UTC
AFL
Logan McDonald
Sydney Swans
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 1.5
-115 (1.87) · $100→$187
+2.7% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos
@
Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sun 23 Aug, 5:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
56 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 56.1% · the book's price implies 53.5% · gap +2.7%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 56.1% | 49.1% | 53.5% | 2.04 | +2.7% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 3/3 |
| Last 5 games | 5/5 |
| Last 10 games | 10/10 |
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Logan McDonald (Sydney Swans) Over 1.5 Goals (-115)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Logan McDonald is shaping as a genuine value play against North Melbourne at the SCG on Sunday. The model has him projected at 1.7 goals against a line of 1.5, generating a 2.7% edge over the implied 53.5% probability baked into the $1.87 price. That's not a massive margin, but it's a real one — and the underlying numbers reinforce it strongly.
At home over his last five, McDonald is averaging 1.8 goals on 3.2 shots at goal with 1.8 marks inside 50 and a 58.3% goal accuracy — all pointing to a forward who consistently generates quality looks at goal. He's hit this line in five of his last seven home games, and his L5 record against North Melbourne specifically is remarkable: averaging four goals at home and three overall. He's also riding a four-game overall hit streak. North Melbourne's defensive vulnerability makes this a well-supported edge.
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Season averages (2024)
Logan McDonald averaged 10.4 disposals, 1.4 goals and 4.9 marks per game across 26 games in 2024.
Hit-rate ladder: Goals Scored
Logan McDonald has cleared 0.5 goals scored in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.
o0.5100%
o1.570%
o2.550%
o3.510%
o4.50%
o5.50%
Home / away and opponent splits
Logan McDonald is averaging 11.8 disposals per game over his last 5 and 12.8 in home games.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Logan McDonald recorded 1 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 28 Sep 24 | Brisbane Lions | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Sep 24 | Port Adelaide | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 7 Sep 24 | GWS GIANTS | 11 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 24 Aug 24 | Adelaide Crows | 17 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| 16 Aug 24 | Essendon | 14 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| 9 Aug 24 | Collingwood | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 3 Aug 24 | Port Adelaide | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 28 Jul 24 | Western Bulldogs | 10 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| 21 Jul 24 | Brisbane Lions | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 13 Jul 24 | North Melbourne | 16 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
Logan McDonald (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Logan McDonald is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.7% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans on Sunday 23 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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