Logan McDonald (Sydney Swans) Over 9.5 Disposals (-164)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Logan McDonald is in the kind of form that makes a line of 9.5 disposals look genuinely thin. His L5 home average sits at 12.8 disposals — well clear of the number — and he's hit this line in four of his last five games at the SCG, currently riding a two-game home streak and an impressive four-from-four run overall. The model projects him at 11.9 disposals, a 2.4-disposal buffer over the line that translates to an 8.7% edge against the implied 62.1% probability baked into the $1.61 price.
What underpins the confidence is the quality of his home work: 8.4 kicks and 228.8 metres gained per game at this venue, with a 74.3% disposal efficiency suggesting he's not just accumulating — he's moving the ball cleanly. The Brisbane matchup history is a slight concern at 7.8 disposals overall, but his home-ground comfort and current momentum make the over a genuine edge worth backing.