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Model picks & player props
St Kilda Saints
VS
North Melbourne Kangaroos

St Kilda Saints vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 4:00AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sun 26 Jul 2026, 5:15AM
12
Game Picks
11
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 40.5 (Team Total Points H1)
For St Kilda Saints vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (AFL), model win probability 63.7%, fair odds 1.57, book price -123, model edge +8.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 26 Jul 2026, 5:15AM at Marvel Stadium.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Points H1
Under
40.5
+ 11 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam Total Points H1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St Kilda SaintsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St Kilda SaintsHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total Points Q1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points Q3Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H2Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points Q1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St Kilda SaintsSpread Q3Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St Kilda SaintsSpread Q2Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St Kilda SaintsSpread Q4Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from North Melbourne Kangaroos on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward North Melbourne Kangaroos
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Saints

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Kangaroos

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For St Kilda Saints vs North Melbourne Kangaroos: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Bradley Hill St Kilda Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera St Kilda Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mitch Owens St Kilda Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Caleb Daniel North Melbourne Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cooper Sharman St Kilda Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

10 markets live
MoneylineSt Kilda Saints to win-200+6.4% edge
73%model win %
+0.0North Melbourne Kangaroos margin (L5)
Model pickSt Kilda Saints to winNorth Melbourne Kangaroos PF/G70.4St Kilda Saints PF/G85.2North Melbourne Kangaroos vs opp (L5)0-5

St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos on Jul 26 - Moneyline: the model's pick is St Kilda Saints to win at -200, a 73% model win % (+6.4% edge). Over their last five games North Melbourne Kangaroos average 70.4 points and St Kilda Saints 85.2.

LineSt Kilda Saints -12.5-12.5 -111+6.8% edge
59%cover %
+0.0North Melbourne Kangaroos margin (L5)
Model pickSt Kilda Saints -12.5North Melbourne Kangaroos PF/G70.4St Kilda Saints PF/G85.2

St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos on Jul 26 - Line: the model's pick is St Kilda Saints -12.5 at -111, a 59% cover % (+6.8% edge). Over their last five games North Melbourne Kangaroos average 70.4 points and St Kilda Saints 85.2.

Total pointsUnder 175.5175.5 -112+4.6% edge
58%under %
170.1proj. total pts
Model pickUnder 175.5North Melbourne Kangaroos PF/G70.4St Kilda Saints PF/G85.2Combined PF/G155.6

St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos on Jul 26 - Total points: the model's pick is Under 175.5 at -112, a 58% under % (+4.6% edge). Over their last five games North Melbourne Kangaroos average 70.4 points and St Kilda Saints 85.2.

Total 1st halfUnder 87.587.5 -116+1.1% edge
55%under %
85.0proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 87.5North Melbourne Kangaroos PF/G70.4St Kilda Saints PF/G85.2Combined PF/G155.6

St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos on Jul 26 - Total 1st half: the model's pick is Under 87.5 at -116, a 55% under % (+1.1% edge). Over their last five games North Melbourne Kangaroos average 70.4 points and St Kilda Saints 85.2.

Total 2nd halfUnder 87.587.5 -112+2.0% edge
55%under %
85.0proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 87.5North Melbourne Kangaroos PF/G70.4St Kilda Saints PF/G85.2Combined PF/G155.6

St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos on Jul 26 - Total 2nd half: the model's pick is Under 87.5 at -112, a 55% under % (+2.0% edge). Over their last five games North Melbourne Kangaroos average 70.4 points and St Kilda Saints 85.2.

Total Q1Under 44.544.5 -119+1.2% edge
56%under %
42.5proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 44.5North Melbourne Kangaroos PF/G70.4St Kilda Saints PF/G85.2Combined PF/G155.6

St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos on Jul 26 - Total Q1: the model's pick is Under 44.5 at -119, a 56% under % (+1.2% edge). Over their last five games North Melbourne Kangaroos average 70.4 points and St Kilda Saints 85.2.

Total Q3Under 44.544.5 -115+2.1% edge
56%under %
42.5proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 44.5North Melbourne Kangaroos PF/G70.4St Kilda Saints PF/G85.2Combined PF/G155.6

St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos on Jul 26 - Total Q3: the model's pick is Under 44.5 at -115, a 56% under % (+2.1% edge). Over their last five games North Melbourne Kangaroos average 70.4 points and St Kilda Saints 85.2.

Line Q2St Kilda Saints -3.5-3.5 -114+0.7% edge
54%cover %
+0.0North Melbourne Kangaroos margin (L5)
Model pickSt Kilda Saints -3.5North Melbourne Kangaroos PF/G70.4St Kilda Saints PF/G85.2

St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos on Jul 26 - Line Q2: the model's pick is St Kilda Saints -3.5 at -114, a 54% cover % (+0.7% edge). Over their last five games North Melbourne Kangaroos average 70.4 points and St Kilda Saints 85.2.

Line Q3St Kilda Saints -3.5-3.5 -112+1.0% edge
54%cover %
+0.0North Melbourne Kangaroos margin (L5)
Model pickSt Kilda Saints -3.5North Melbourne Kangaroos PF/G70.4St Kilda Saints PF/G85.2

St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos on Jul 26 - Line Q3: the model's pick is St Kilda Saints -3.5 at -112, a 54% cover % (+1.0% edge). Over their last five games North Melbourne Kangaroos average 70.4 points and St Kilda Saints 85.2.

Line Q4St Kilda Saints -3.5-3.5 -115+0.4% edge
54%cover %
+0.0North Melbourne Kangaroos margin (L5)
Model pickSt Kilda Saints -3.5North Melbourne Kangaroos PF/G70.4St Kilda Saints PF/G85.2

St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos on Jul 26 - Line Q4: the model's pick is St Kilda Saints -3.5 at -115, a 54% cover % (+0.4% edge). Over their last five games North Melbourne Kangaroos average 70.4 points and St Kilda Saints 85.2.

St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos — model preview

<p>Winning bets for North Melbourne Kangaroos vs St Kilda Saints? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Caleb Daniel. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, North Melbourne Kangaroos vs St Kilda Saints stats and odds.</p>

Caleb Daniel (North Melbourne) Over 22.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball magnets, Caleb Daniel stands out like a beacon in the midfield. With his recent form hitting a sweet spot, averaging a healthy 26.6 disposals in his last five home games, he's been the Kangaroos' go-to man. In these matchups, he's been a metronome of precision, boasting an impressive 92.1% disposal efficiency. Against St Kilda, a team he has historically tallied around 24 disposals per game, he's shown a knack for finding the footy. With his knack for intercepting and gaining valuable meters, Daniel's consistency makes the Over 22.5 disposals line seem like a gift from the footy gods. Expect him to be in the thick of the action, racking up possessions like clockwork.

Caleb Daniel (North Melbourne) Over 21.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Caleb Daniel, the Kangaroos' midfield maestro, is poised to take center stage at Marvel Stadium against the Saints. Over his last five home games, Daniel has been a disposal machine, averaging a whopping 26.6 disposals per match, comfortably eclipsing the 21.5 line set by the bookies. With his precise handballs (10 avg) and booming kicks (16.6 avg), Daniel consistently finds ways to impact the game. His disposal efficiency sits at an impressive 92.1%, showcasing his composure under pressure. Against St Kilda, he has historically elevated his game, averaging 26.7 disposals in their recent encounters. The data points to Daniel not only meeting but exceeding expectations, making the over 21.5 disposals a compelling bet for punters looking to capitalize on his midfield dominance.

Darcy Wilson (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Darcy Wilson's recent form, it's clear he's been on a tear away from home. Averaging 1.6 goals in his last five away games, Wilson has been a key offensive threat for the Saints. His 44.3% goal accuracy shows he's not just bombing away but picking his spots wisely. With an average of 2.8 shots at goal per game, he's actively involved in creating scoring opportunities. Additionally, his 6 score involvements per game highlight his importance in setting up scoring plays. Facing North Melbourne, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 3 goals in their last five matchups, Wilson seems poised to snag at least one goal and help you cash in on the Over 0.5 goals player prop bet.

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs St Kilda Saints : Under 40.5 team_totals_h1 (-123)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's dive into this intriguing North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. St Kilda Saints matchup at Marvel Stadium. The Kangaroos have been struggling to find their scoring touch lately, averaging just 70.4 points in their last five games overall and a modest 72 points in their recent home fixtures. Facing a St Kilda side that has tightened up its defense, conceding only 77.4 points on average in their recent outings, the Kangaroos might find it tough to hit the scoreboard early. With the Kangaroos averaging 10.4 target goals in their last five home games but facing a stingy St Kilda defense that allows just 88.6 points on the road, the Under 40.5 on the Kangaroos' first-half team total looks like a smart play. Expect a tight, low-scoring affair early on as both teams battle it out in the midfield trenches.

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs St Kilda Saints : St Kilda Saints -12.5 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright footy punters, let's break down why backing the St Kilda Saints at -12.5 against the North Melbourne Kangaroos is a smart play this weekend. The Saints have been showing some serious scoring power lately, averaging a solid 85.2 points per game over their last five matches, with an impressive average of 53.4 inside 50s. On the flip side, the Kangaroos have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 95 points per game at home recently. St Kilda's ability to generate scoring opportunities, coupled with North Melbourne's leaky defense and lower inside 50 count, sets the stage for the Saints to exploit their opponent's weaknesses and cover the spread comfortably. With the Saints' recent form and the Kangaroos' defensive frailties, expect St Kilda to snag a convincing win at Marvel Stadium.

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs St Kilda Saints : St Kilda Saints Win (-200)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The upcoming clash between North Melbourne Kangaroos and St Kilda Saints at Marvel Stadium promises a riveting showdown. Recent form favors the Saints, boasting a stronger margin average of 7.8 in their last five games compared to the Kangaroos' -23. St Kilda's offensive prowess shines through with an impressive 85.2 points per game, a stark contrast to North Melbourne's 70.4. The Saints excel in key metrics like contested possessions, inside 50s, and clearances, indicating their ability to dominate the midfield battle. With a more solid defense conceding just 77.4 points on average, the Saints are poised to control the tempo and secure a vital victory. Backing the St Kilda Saints to snag the win looks like a smart play in this matchup.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

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DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for St Kilda Saints vs North Melbourne Kangaroos in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 26 July 2026 at Marvel Stadium. The model has generated 12 game picks and 11 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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