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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is Over 28.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +0.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 3:38PM UTC
AFL

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera

St Kilda

+0.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 28.5 -263 (1.38)
+0.1% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.6%
Implied Probability
72.5%
Model Edge
+0.1%
Predicted Value
31.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.6%—72.5%1.38+0.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (St Kilda) Over 28.5 Disposals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is primed to shine in the upcoming clash at Marvel Stadium. With a stellar average of 33.2 disposals over his last five home games, he's been a midfield maestro. His ability to find space and deliver with precision is second to none, boasting a solid 77.1% disposal efficiency. Against Carlton, Nasiah has consistently notched up 26 disposals on average in their recent encounters. With his knack for racking up kicks (24.2 on average at home) and crucial intercepts (3.6 per game), the stage is set for him to dominate. Having hit the mark in 4 out of his last 5 home games and with an impressive overall hit rate, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is a reliable bet to surpass the 28.5 disposal mark against the Blues.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Carlton BluesO 28.5 -263
80%hit L10 O 28.5
33.8avg disposals L5
Home33.2vs Carlton24.6Season best31
O 26.580%
O 27.580%
O 28.580%
O 29.580%
O 30.580%
O 31.570%
Game log vs line (O 28.5)1 / 10 hit
28262828233123232125

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has gone over 28.5 disposals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 33.8 disposals, best 31). Current line: Over 28.5 at -263.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.8avg goals L5
Home1vs Carlton0.2Season best1
O 0.580%
O 1.520%
O 2.520%
O 3.510%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 0.1 · hi 1 · lo 0
0000010000

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has gone over 1.5 goals in 2 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.8 goals, best 1).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 24.5 Over -769 ✗ MISS
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 26.5 Over -455 ✗ MISS
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 25.5 Over -667 ✗ MISS
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
26 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is Over 28.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.1% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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