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The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Wilson is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 58%, for a model edge of +12.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 2:05PM UTC
AFL

Darcy Wilson

St Kilda

+12.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -139 (1.72)
+12.9% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 16 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
71.1%
Implied Probability
58.1%
Model Edge
+12.9%
Predicted Value
0.9 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals71.1%—58.1%1.41+12.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Darcy Wilson (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-139)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a goal scorer in the AFL, you want someone in form and hungry in front of the big sticks. Darcy Wilson fits that bill perfectly. Wilson has been on fire in his last five away games, averaging a cool 2 goals per game, showing a knack for finding the scoreboard consistently. His sharpshooting accuracy of 57.7% means he's not wasting opportunities when they come his way. With an average of 3.4 shots per game, Wilson is actively involved in the attacking plays, making him a constant threat inside 50. Facing Geelong, where he's been scoring 1 goal on average in recent encounters, Wilson is poised to snag at least one goal. With a current hit streak of 5 and impressive numbers to back him up, Wilson is primed to split the middle and deliver for punters looking to back him to score over 0.5 goals in this clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 23.5
23.4avg disposals L5
Away23vs Geelong Cats15.3Season best25
O 21.570%
O 22.560%
O 23.550%
O 24.540%
O 25.510%
O 26.510%
Game log vs line (O 23.5)avg 14.7 · hi 25 · lo 7
187911141714102522

Darcy Wilson has gone over 23.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 23.4 disposals, best 25).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 0.5
0.8avg goals L5
Away2vs Geelong Cats1Season best3
O 0.570%
O 1.520%
O 2.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.6 · hi 2 · lo 0
1010100120

Darcy Wilson has gone over 0.5 goals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.8 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -172 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Darcy Wilson (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Wilson is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.9% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 16 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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