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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Wilson is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +15.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 4:46PM UTC
AFL

Darcy Wilson

St Kilda

+15.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -125 (1.80)
+15.5% Edge
Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 3:05AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
71.1%
Implied Probability
55.6%
Model Edge
+15.5%
Predicted Value
0.9 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals71.1%55.6%1.41+15.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Darcy Wilson (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-125)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Darcy Wilson is our man for the job in the St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans clash at Marvel Stadium. Wilson has been heating up at home, averaging 0.6 goals in his last five games. His goal accuracy sits at a respectable 40%, showcasing his ability to split the middle when the pressure is on. With Wilson's knack for being involved in the Saints' scoring plays, averaging 5.6 score involvements per game, and his consistent shots at goal (1.4 per game), the odds are in our favor for him to bag at least one goal against the Swans. Wilson's recent form, combined with his solid history against this opponent, where he's notched an average of 1 goal in their last five encounters, makes the Over 0.5 goals market a compelling play. Trust in Wilson to deliver the goods and help you secure that winning bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 24.5
24.2avg disposals L5
Home21.6vs Carlton23Season best25
O 22.570%
O 23.560%
O 24.550%
O 25.520%
O 26.520%
O 27.520%
Game log vs line (O 24.5)avg 14.7 · hi 25 · lo 7
187911141714102522

Darcy Wilson has gone over 24.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 24.2 disposals, best 25).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 0.5
0.6avg goals L5
Home0.4vs Carlton0Season best3
O 0.560%
O 1.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.6 · hi 2 · lo 0
1010100120

Darcy Wilson has gone over 0.5 goals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.6 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -125 ✓ HIT
26 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals 0.5 Over -169 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Darcy Wilson (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Wilson is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.5% on this pick. Their next game is Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints on Saturday 1 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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