Darcy Wilson (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-133)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Darcy Wilson's away form is the key reason this bet makes sense. In his last seven road trips he's cleared the 0.5 goals line six times — an 86% hit rate that dwarfs his overall 13-game mark of 62%. More tellingly, his L5 away averages paint a genuinely threatening forward: 2.2 shots at goal per game, 1.0 goals, and a 38.3% goal accuracy that's meaningfully better than his overall 10% clip, suggesting he finds his best work when travelling. His 5 inside-50 entries and 6.4 score involvements away from home confirm he's getting into the game, not just floating on the periphery.
The model projects 0.8 goals against a line of 0.5, generating a 3.7% edge over the 57.1% implied probability baked into the $1.75 price. His L5 record against Richmond (0.8 goals average) supports the read. Solid away form, genuine shots at goal — this is a legitimate edge worth taking.