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The latest Bet Better model pick for Rowan Marshall is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 81%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +18.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 11:12PM UTC
AFL

Rowan Marshall

St Kilda

+18.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -164 (1.61) · $100→$161
+18.6% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
80.7%
Implied Probability
62.1%
Model Edge
+18.6%
Predicted Value
17.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals80.7%—62.1%1.24+18.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Rowan Marshall (St Kilda) Over 13.5 Disposals (-164)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to finding value in the AFL player props market, Rowan Marshall stands out as a prime target for hitting the Over on disposals against the Adelaide Crows. Marshall's recent form on the road has been nothing short of impressive, averaging 16.8 disposals over his last five away games. Facing the Crows, he's maintained an average of 14.5 disposals in their head-to-head matchups. With a model predicting him to reach 17.8 disposals, indicating an 18.6% edge, Marshall's consistent performance, coupled with his ability to impact the game both in contested possessions and metres gained, makes the Over 13.5 disposals a compelling bet. Trust in Marshall's ability to find the footy and make an impact on the field in this showdown at the Adelaide Oval.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Rowan Marshall averaged 20.7 disposals, 0.7 goals and 5.8 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

20.7
Disposals
0.7
Goals
5.8
Marks
4.3
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Rowan Marshall has cleared 12.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o12.590%
o13.590%
o15.560%
o17.560%
o19.550%
o21.540%
o23.530%
o25.520%
o27.520%
o29.510%
o31.510%
o33.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Rowan Marshall is averaging 23.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

23.8
Disp · Overall
1.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Carlton), Rowan Marshall recorded 19 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Carlton19132
17 Aug 24Geelong Cats28173
11 Aug 24Richmond233110
4 Aug 24Brisbane Lions17297
27 Jul 24Essendon261103
20 Jul 24West Coast Eagles26053
13 Jul 24Adelaide Crows20019
7 Jul 24Sydney Swans16275
30 Jun 24Port Adelaide18392
14 Jun 24Brisbane Lions20056
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 13.5 Over -164 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 12.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 11.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Rowan Marshall (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Rowan Marshall is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.6% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 18 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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