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The latest Bet Better model pick for Rowan Marshall is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 81%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +18.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
AFL

Rowan Marshall

St Kilda

+18.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -164 (1.61)
+18.6% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 9:35AM
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Model Probability
80.7%
Implied Probability
62.1%
Model Edge
+18.6%
Predicted Value
17.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals80.7%—62.1%1.24+18.6%

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AI Analysis

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Rowan Marshall (St Kilda) Over 13.5 Disposals (-164)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to finding value in the AFL player props market, Rowan Marshall stands out as a prime target for hitting the Over on disposals against the Adelaide Crows. Marshall's recent form on the road has been nothing short of impressive, averaging 16.8 disposals over his last five away games. Facing the Crows, he's maintained an average of 14.5 disposals in their head-to-head matchups. With a model predicting him to reach 17.8 disposals, indicating an 18.6% edge, Marshall's consistent performance, coupled with his ability to impact the game both in contested possessions and metres gained, makes the Over 13.5 disposals a compelling bet. Trust in Marshall's ability to find the footy and make an impact on the field in this showdown at the Adelaide Oval.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 6 of last 10(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
21.3avg disposals recent
Season best31
Disposals last 10avg 21.3 · hi 28 · lo 16
20181620262617232819

Rowan Marshall has a disposals high of 31 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.3avg goals recent
Season best3
Goals last 10avg 1.3 · hi 3 · lo 0
0320012311

Rowan Marshall has a goals high of 3 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 13.5 Over -164 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 12.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 11.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending
12 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals — — — Pending
12 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Rowan Marshall (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Rowan Marshall is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.6% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 18 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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