Rowan Marshall (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Goals (-278)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Marshall is a solid play here despite the modest edge, because the underlying numbers genuinely support it. His overall L5 goals average sits at 1.2 — well clear of the 0.5 line — and he's converting at 33.3% accuracy across 3.2 shots at goal per game overall. The away-specific numbers cool slightly, with his L5 away goals average dropping to 0.8 and accuracy falling to 20% from 2.4 shots, but he's still averaging 1.4 marks inside 50 and 6 score involvements in those games, meaning he's getting into the contest and generating chances. Crucially, he's hit this line in 4 of his last 5 outings overall and is riding a two-game away hit streak. The model projects 1.1 goals against a line of 0.5, and while the 0.1% edge is slim at $1.36, the 73.5% implied probability looks fair given his consistent forward presence. A reasonable play at current odds.