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Model picks & player props
Sydney Swans
VS
Richmond Tigers

Sydney Swans vs Richmond Tigers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 3:51PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 7 Jun 2025, 3:20AM
6
Game markets graded
10
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Richmond Tigers (Moneyline)
The model graded 16 markets for Sydney Swans vs Richmond Tigers (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $282 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 48.4%, fair odds 2.07, book price +182, model edge +12.9%. Tip-off Sat 7 Jun 2025, 3:20AM at MCG.

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Richmond Tigers
+182
+ 5 more markets
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🔒
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Richmond TigersHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Swans

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Tigers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Sydney Swans vs Richmond Tigers: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Justin McInerney Sydney Swans Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tom Lynch Adelaide Crows Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Rhyan Mansell Richmond Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Dion Prestia Richmond Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jake Lloyd Sydney Swans Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Sydney Swans @ Richmond Tigers — what the model found

Our model graded 16 betting markets for Sydney Swans at Richmond Tigers — 6 on the game itself and 10 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

6
Game markets graded
10
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 16 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 15 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Sydney Swans vs Richmond Tigers — recent results

Richmond Tigers have won 0 of their last 0 games; Sydney Swans have won 3 of their last 5.

Sydney Swans — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W167–70PORTHome
W107–88STKAway
W139–88GWSAway
L71–87ADELHome
L83–126BLAway

Sydney Swans @ Richmond Tigers — model preview

Winning bets for Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Rhyan Mansell. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans stats and odds.

Rhyan Mansell (Richmond) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Rhyan Mansell presents a strong opportunity to score anytime based on his recent form. With an average of 0.8 goals in his last 5 home games and facing Sydney Swans, against whom he averages 1 goal in recent matchups, the model's prediction of 1.1 goals aligns with Mansell's ability to impact the scoreboard. Additionally, his average goal accuracy of 40.0% and consistent involvement in scoring opportunities with 4.6 score involvements per game further support his potential to find the back of the net. Considering the Over bet with a line of 0.5, Mansell's recent performance metrics suggest a high likelihood of him contributing to the Tigers' goal tally in this matchup at MCG.

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Sydney Swans vs Richmond Tigers in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Swans vs Tigers, or as Tigers vs Swans. The most recent game between them was Saturday 7 June 2025 at MCG. The model has generated 6 game picks and 10 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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