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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Justin McInerney is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 70%, the price says 78%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 10:40AM UTC
AFL

Justin McInerney

Sydney Swans

Value call

Justin McInerney (Sydney Swans) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 16.5 that pays $128 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -357 (1.28) · $100→$128
Value call
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
22.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 69.8% · before adjusting for past results 83.5% · the book's price implies 78.1% · gap -8.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals83.5%69.8%78.1%1.43+5.3%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Justin McInerney Over 16.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle's strong defense could make it tough for Sydney Swans to break through, but Justin McInerney has been playing really well lately. He has been a key player for the Swans, and they often rely on him to move the ball forward. With Sydney averaging over 57 points before half-time in their last 12 matches, it's likely McInerney will have plenty of chances to rack up disposals. Betting on him to get over 16.5 disposals looks promising since he's been a big part of the team's strategy. However, Fremantle has also won seven of their last ten games and is not to be underestimated. This matchup is tight, so while McInerney has a good chance to hit that mark, there's always a risk he may not see the ball as much if the game gets tough.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Justin McInerney averaged 18.9 disposals, 0.3 goals and 5.4 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

18.9
Disposals
0.3
Goals
5.4
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Justin McInerney recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions10041
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide19070
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS6011
13 Jul 24North Melbourne13042
7 Jul 24St Kilda23153
29 Jun 24Fremantle20172
22 Jun 24GWS GIANTS18162
15 Jun 24Adelaide Crows22041
9 Jun 24Geelong Cats24153
23 May 24Western Bulldogs20094
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Handballs Pending

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About This Player

Justin McInerney (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Justin McInerney is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.3% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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