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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Justin McInerney is Under 23.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 57%, edge +17.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 6:01AM UTC
AFL

Justin McInerney

Sydney Swans

+17.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 23.5 -132 (1.76) · $100→$176
+17.1% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Apr, 9:50AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
20.3 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.9% · the book's price implies 56.8% · gap +17.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.9%56.8%1.35+17.1%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Justin McInerney (Sydney Swans) Under 23.5 Disposals (-132)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Justin McInerney and his disposal game. The data paints a clear picture for this upcoming clash between the Sydney Swans and the GWS Giants at the SCG. McInerney's recent home form shows an average of 26 disposals over his last five games, but here's the kicker - against the Giants, he's been hovering around the 16-15 disposal mark. With the line set at 23.5, there's a solid edge to play the under here. Plus, his turnovers have crept up recently, which could further support this play. The trend of McInerney's disposal efficiency and contested possessions also hints at a tighter game than his model prediction suggests. So, when the battle of Sydney unfolds, keep an eye on McInerney to snag under 23.5 disposals and split the middle!

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Justin McInerney averaged 18.9 disposals, 0.3 goals and 5.4 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

18.9
Disposals
0.3
Goals
5.4
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Home / away and opponent splits

Justin McInerney is averaging 19.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

19.2
Disp · Overall
0.6
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Justin McInerney recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions10041
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide19070
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS6011
13 Jul 24North Melbourne13042
7 Jul 24St Kilda23153
29 Jun 24Fremantle20172
22 Jun 24GWS GIANTS18162
15 Jun 24Adelaide Crows22041
9 Jun 24Geelong Cats24153
23 May 24Western Bulldogs20094
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Justin McInerney (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Justin McInerney is Under 23.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.1% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 April at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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