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AFL

Justin McInerney

Sydney Swans

Value call

Justin McInerney (Sydney Swans) has one live pick today: over 18.5 disposals that pays $165 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
61 in 100
Predicted
22.2 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 60.8% · before adjusting for past results 73.6% · the book's price implies 60.6% · gap +0.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST
Justin McInerney
over 18.5 disposals
Disposals Over 18.5 -154 (1.65) · $100→$165
Value call
HIGHWins about 61 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$16.50 Odds-154
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Justin McInerney is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 61%, the price says 61%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 23, 5:13PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.6%60.8%60.6%1.64+13.0%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Justin McInerney Over 18.5 Disposals (-154)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle's defense can be a tough challenge, but Justin McInerney has been stepping up lately. He's been getting plenty of disposals, and with the Sydney Swans scoring an average of 57.3 points before half-time in recent games, he's likely to see the ball a lot. This makes the bet of over 18.5 disposals for him a solid choice. Both teams have been winning about the same lately, so it could be close. The biggest risk here is that Fremantle's defense might clamp down on him. Still, with his recent form and the way the game is likely to flow, there's a good chance he can surpass that number.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Justin McInerney averaged 18.9 disposals, 0.3 goals and 5.4 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

18.9
Disposals
0.3
Goals
5.4
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Justin McInerney recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions10041
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide19070
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS6011
13 Jul 24North Melbourne13042
7 Jul 24St Kilda23153
29 Jun 24Fremantle20172
22 Jun 24GWS GIANTS18162
15 Jun 24Adelaide Crows22041
9 Jun 24Geelong Cats24153
23 May 24Western Bulldogs20094
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Handballs — — — Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Justin McInerney (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Justin McInerney is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.0% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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