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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Maurice Rioli is Over 3.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 21 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 21%, implied 13%, edge +7.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 2:33AM UTC
AFL

Maurice Rioli

Richmond

+7.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 3.5 +650 (7.50) · $100→$750
+7.7% Edge
Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 22 Aug, 9:45AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
21 in 100
Predicted
2.1 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 21.0% · the book's price implies 13.3% · gap +7.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks21.0%13.3%4.77+7.7%

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AI Analysis

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Maurice Rioli (Richmond) Over 3.5 player_marks_over (+650)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

If you're looking to spice up your footy betting slip with a player prop that could deliver a tidy return, Maurice Rioli is your man for the Geelong vs. Richmond showdown. Rioli has been making his mark, literally, in recent games, averaging 1.4 marks when playing away from home. Against the Cats, he's been even more prolific, snagging an impressive 6 marks per game. With the line set at a manageable 3.5, Rioli's recent form suggests he's primed to soar above that mark. His knack for finding space inside 50 and contesting marks adds layers to his aerial threat, making him a prime candidate to dominate in the marking department. So, if you're after a bet that combines value and statistical backing, backing Rioli to go Over 3.5 marks is a smart play to consider for this clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 4(75%)

Season averages (2024)

Maurice Rioli averaged 9.4 disposals, 0.9 goals and 2.1 marks per game across 9 games in 2024.

9.4
Disposals
0.9
Goals
2.1
Marks
3.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Maurice Rioli recorded 9 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS9124
11 May 24Western Bulldogs9102
5 May 24Fremantle8011
24 Apr 24Melbourne14274
14 Apr 24West Coast Eagles9141
7 Apr 24St Kilda8214
31 Mar 24Sydney Swans17026
14 Mar 24Carlton4115
9 Mar 24Gold Coast SUNS7012
27 Aug 23Port Adelaide5012
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Marks 3.5 Over +650 ✗ MISS
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Marks 2.5 Over +235 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Marks 1.5 Over -133 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Goals Pending

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About This Player

Maurice Rioli (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Maurice Rioli is Over 3.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.7% on this pick. Their next game is Richmond Tigers vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 22 August at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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