Judson Clarke (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (+190)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Clarke's away form is the headline here. He's averaging exactly 1.0 goals per away game over his last five, hitting the over 0.5 line in four of those five outings — an 80% away hit rate that dwarfs the 34.5% implied probability baked into the $2.90 price. That's a substantial gap the model is capturing with a 19.4% edge, projecting 0.6 goals against a line of 0.5.
The underlying numbers reinforce the case. Away, Clarke is generating 2.0 shots at goal per game with a 50% goal accuracy and 0.6 marks inside 50 — enough forward presence to convert regularly. His L5 record against Geelong specifically also sits at 1.0 goals per game. Yes, the overall L5 figures look softer due to home performances dragging the average down, but this is an away game, and that split matters. At $2.90, the value is genuine.