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The latest Bet Better model pick for Hugo Ralphsmith is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 75%, versus the book's implied 75%, for a model edge of +0.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 12, 12:43AM UTC
AFL

Hugo Ralphsmith

Richmond

+0.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 10.5 -294 (1.34) · $100→$134
+0.6% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 21 Mar, 2:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
75.3%
Implied Probability
74.6%
Model Edge
+0.6%
Predicted Value
13.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.3%74.6%1.33+0.6%

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AI Analysis

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Hugo Ralphsmith (Richmond) Over 10.5 Disposals (-294)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Hugo Ralphsmith and his impact on the footy field, the numbers paint a clear picture. With an average of 13.2 disposals in his last five home games and a solid hit rate, he's been a consistent force for the Tigers. Facing the Gold Coast Suns, who he's historically outperformed with an average of 11.5 disposals in their recent matchups, Ralphsmith is poised to shine. His ability to find space, coupled with his knack for contested possessions and efficient ball use, sets him up for success. Add in his recent form of 14.3 disposals per game, and the Over 10.5 line seems like a no-brainer for this skilled midfielder. Betting on Ralphsmith to surpass this mark is not just a wager; it's a calculated investment in his prowess on the field.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Hugo Ralphsmith averaged 13.6 disposals, 0.3 goals and 3.9 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

13.6
Disposals
0.3
Goals
3.9
Marks
1.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Hugo Ralphsmith recorded 12 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS12031
18 Aug 24Hawthorn17161
11 Aug 24St Kilda7210
3 Aug 24North Melbourne12110
28 Jul 24Collingwood14051
20 Jul 24Port Adelaide15022
14 Jul 24GWS GIANTS16040
6 Jul 24Fremantle14010
30 Jun 24Carlton15052
15 Jun 24Hawthorn14091
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Hugo Ralphsmith (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Hugo Ralphsmith is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.6% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Richmond Tigers on Saturday 21 March at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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