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The latest Bet Better model pick for Hugo Ralphsmith is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 75%, versus the book's implied 75%, for a model edge of +0.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
AFL

Hugo Ralphsmith

Richmond

+0.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 10.5 -294 (1.34)
+0.6% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 21 Mar, 2:15AM
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Model Probability
75.3%
Implied Probability
74.6%
Model Edge
+0.6%
Predicted Value
13.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.3%74.6%1.33+0.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Hugo Ralphsmith (Richmond) Over 10.5 Disposals (-294)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Hugo Ralphsmith and his impact on the footy field, the numbers paint a clear picture. With an average of 13.2 disposals in his last five home games and a solid hit rate, he's been a consistent force for the Tigers. Facing the Gold Coast Suns, who he's historically outperformed with an average of 11.5 disposals in their recent matchups, Ralphsmith is poised to shine. His ability to find space, coupled with his knack for contested possessions and efficient ball use, sets him up for success. Add in his recent form of 14.3 disposals per game, and the Over 10.5 line seems like a no-brainer for this skilled midfielder. Betting on Ralphsmith to surpass this mark is not just a wager; it's a calculated investment in his prowess on the field.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
15.6avg disposals L5
Home16.6vs Hawthorn14.3Season best21
O 13.560%
O 14.550%
O 15.540%
O 16.540%
O 17.510%
O 18.510%
Game log vs line (O 15.5)avg 13.6 · hi 17 · lo 7
1415141615141271712

Hugo Ralphsmith has gone over 15.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 15.6 disposals, best 21).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Hugo Ralphsmith (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Hugo Ralphsmith is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.6% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Richmond Tigers on Saturday 21 March at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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