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The latest Bet Better model pick for Rhyan Mansell is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 83%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +14.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
AFL

Rhyan Mansell

Richmond

+14.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -213 (1.47)
+14.7% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
82.7%
Implied Probability
68.0%
Model Edge
+14.7%
Predicted Value
1.2 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals82.7%—68.0%1.21+14.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Rhyan Mansell (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

If you're looking to back a player prop with a solid statistical foundation, Rhyan Mansell is your man for the Richmond Tigers against the Hawthorn Hawks clash at the MCG. In his last five home games, Mansell has been a consistent threat up front, averaging 1 goal per game, with a strong 51.7% goal accuracy overall. His ability to impact the scoreboard is further highlighted by his 4.6 score involvements per game on home turf. Facing Hawthorn, against whom he's averaged 0.5 goals in his last five meetings, Mansell is poised to snag another goal this time around. With a line set at just 0.5, the stats point towards Mansell comfortably surpassing that mark. Betting on Mansell to go over 0.5 goals is a smart move given his recent form and historical performance against the Hawks.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 1.5
1.6avg goals L5
Home1vs Hawthorn1Season best3
O 0.580%
O 1.550%
O 2.520%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 1.2 · hi 3 · lo 0
1112301021

Rhyan Mansell has gone over 1.5 goals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.6 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Goals 0.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
12 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Goals 0.5 Over -227 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Rhyan Mansell (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Rhyan Mansell is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.7% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 19 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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