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The latest Bet Better model pick for Dion Prestia is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +3.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 19, 8:20PM UTC
AFL

Dion Prestia

Richmond

+3.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -588 (1.17)
+3.1% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
88.6%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+3.1%
Predicted Value
20.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals88.6%—85.5%1.13+3.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Dion Prestia (Richmond) Over 14.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Dion Prestia, the midfield maestro for the Tigers, is set to light up the MCG against the Hawks. Over his last five games, Prestia has been a disposal machine, averaging a stellar 23.4 disposals per game at home, including a robust average of 10.8 kicks and 12.6 handballs. Facing the Hawks, he's even more potent, boasting a 29 disposal average in their last five encounters. With a current hit streak of 3 at home and a flawless 5/5 hit rate overall, Prestia is in red-hot form. His ability to find space, win contested possessions, and efficiently move the ball forward makes him a prime candidate to surpass the 14.5 disposal line. Back Prestia to deliver the goods and rack up the possessions in style.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 19.5
19.8avg disposals L5
Home23.4vs Hawthorn27.2Season best33
O 17.570%
O 18.570%
O 19.570%
O 20.540%
O 21.540%
O 22.530%
Game log vs line (O 19.5)avg 23.8 · hi 33 · lo 14
23271427242029202133

Dion Prestia has gone over 19.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 19.8 disposals, best 33).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 15.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Disposals 16.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Disposals — — — Pending
12 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
12 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Dion Prestia (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dion Prestia is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.1% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers on Sunday 19 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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