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The latest Bet Better model pick for Dion Prestia is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +2.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 9, 4:24AM UTC
AFL

Dion Prestia

Richmond

+2.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -233 (1.43)
+2.6% Edge
Richmond Tigers @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 16°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.5%
Implied Probability
69.9%
Model Edge
+2.6%
Predicted Value
20.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.5%69.9%1.38+2.6%

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AI Analysis

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Dion Prestia (Richmond) Over 17.5 Disposals (-233)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Dion Prestia, the Richmond Tigers' midfield maestro, is poised to dominate the possession battle against the Adelaide Crows. In his last five away games, Prestia has been a workhorse, averaging a solid 15.2 disposals, with a standout performance of 20.7 against this very opponent. With a knack for finding space and creating opportunities, his 57.7% disposal efficiency is a testament to his class on the ball. Additionally, his recent form boasts an impressive 8.2 kicks, 7 handballs, and 266.2 meters gained per game. Facing a Crows side he has historically performed well against, Prestia is primed to showcase his ball-winning prowess once more. Backing Prestia to surpass 17.5 disposals is a smart move given his recent stellar form and historical success against the Crows.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
23.8avg disposals recent
Season best33
Disposals last 10avg 23.8 · hi 33 · lo 14
23271427242029202133

Dion Prestia has a disposals high of 33 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 17.5 Over -233 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 16.5 Over -333 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 14.5 Over -769 ✗ MISS
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending
19 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Richmond Tigers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Dion Prestia (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dion Prestia is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.6% on this pick. Their next game is Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 8 August at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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