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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Lynch is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 98%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +12.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 7:06PM UTC
AFL

Tom Lynch

Richmond

+12.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -588 (1.17) · $100→$117
+12.1% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 9 Aug, 3:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 17°C (Apr 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
97.6%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+12.1%
Predicted Value
2.0 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals97.6%—85.5%1.03+12.1%

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AI Analysis

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Tom Lynch (Richmond) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tom Lynch is a strong bet to score anytime against St Kilda based on his recent performance indicators. With an average of 1.4 goals in his last 5 home games and a goal accuracy of 49.3%, Lynch consistently finds the big sticks. His involvement in the scoring plays, averaging 4.8 score involvements per game, showcases his impact in the forward line. Additionally, his average of 3.6 shots at goal per game indicates a high level of attacking involvement. Facing St Kilda, against whom he averages 1 goal in his last 5 matchups, Lynch's form and historical performance make him a reliable choice to snag a goal in this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.9avg goals recent
Season best3
Goals last 8avg 1.9 · hi 3 · lo 0
33122130

Tom Lynch has a goals high of 3 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Tom Lynch (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Lynch is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.1% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers on Saturday 9 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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