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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Lynch is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 98%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +12.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Tom Lynch

Richmond

+12.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -588 (1.17)
+12.1% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 9 Aug, 3:20AM
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Model Probability
97.6%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+12.1%
Predicted Value
2.0 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals97.6%—85.5%1.03+12.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Tom Lynch (Richmond) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tom Lynch is a strong bet to score anytime against St Kilda based on his recent performance indicators. With an average of 1.4 goals in his last 5 home games and a goal accuracy of 49.3%, Lynch consistently finds the big sticks. His involvement in the scoring plays, averaging 4.8 score involvements per game, showcases his impact in the forward line. Additionally, his average of 3.6 shots at goal per game indicates a high level of attacking involvement. Facing St Kilda, against whom he averages 1 goal in his last 5 matchups, Lynch's form and historical performance make him a reliable choice to snag a goal in this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 0.5
1avg goals L5
Away0.4Season best3
O 0.570%
O 1.550%
O 2.520%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 1.9 · hi 3 · lo 0
33122130

Tom Lynch has gone over 0.5 goals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Tom Lynch (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Lynch is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.1% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers on Saturday 9 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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