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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Lynch is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 98 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 98%, implied 85%, edge +12.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 12:41AM UTC
AFL

Tom Lynch

Richmond

+12.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -588 (1.17) · $100→$117
+12.1% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 9 Aug, 3:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 17°C (Apr 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
98 in 100
Predicted
2.0 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 97.6% · the book's price implies 85.5% · gap +12.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals97.6%—85.5%1.03+12.1%

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AI Analysis

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Tom Lynch (Richmond) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tom Lynch is a strong bet to score anytime against St Kilda based on his recent performance indicators. With an average of 1.4 goals in his last 5 home games and a goal accuracy of 49.3%, Lynch consistently finds the big sticks. His involvement in the scoring plays, averaging 4.8 score involvements per game, showcases his impact in the forward line. Additionally, his average of 3.6 shots at goal per game indicates a high level of attacking involvement. Facing St Kilda, against whom he averages 1 goal in his last 5 matchups, Lynch's form and historical performance make him a reliable choice to snag a goal in this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Tom Lynch averaged 8.0 disposals, 1.5 goals and 3.0 marks per game across 4 games in 2024.

8.0
Disposals
1.5
Goals
3.0
Marks
0.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (15 Jun 24 vs Hawthorn), Tom Lynch recorded 4 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
15 Jun 24Hawthorn4020
31 Mar 24Sydney Swans11360
24 Mar 24Port Adelaide7100
14 Mar 24Carlton10241
8 Apr 23Western Bulldogs6213
31 Mar 23Collingwood7132
25 Mar 23Adelaide Crows11380
16 Mar 23Carlton10360
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Tom Lynch (Richmond) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Lynch is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.1% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers on Saturday 9 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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