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Model picks & player props
Carlton Blues
VS
Richmond Tigers

Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 2:10PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 9:35AM
6
Game Picks
15
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 168.5 (Total Points)
For Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers (AFL), model win probability 54.8%, fair odds 1.83, book price -115, model edge +1.3%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 4 Jul 2026, 9:35AM at MCG.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Under
168.5
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Blues

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Tigers

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Sam Walsh Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tim Taranto Richmond Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Seth Campbell Richmond Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Oliver Florent Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jayden Short Richmond Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers — model preview

<p>Latest AFL betting preview: Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Jayden Short. Keywords: AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues stats and odds.</p>

Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 22.5 Disposals (-156)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for over 22.5 disposals, Jayden Short of the Richmond Tigers is a standout choice for the clash against the Carlton Blues at the MCG. Short has been a consistent force in recent home games, averaging a solid 25.6 disposals per game. With his knack for finding the footy, combined with a high disposal efficiency of 75.5%, he's a reliable ball distributor. His ability to cover the ground is evident in his 541.2 meters gained on average in his last 5 home games. Against Carlton, he's maintained a strong average of 20 disposals. Given his recent form and matchup history, Short is poised to surpass the 22.5 threshold comfortably. Betting on Short to hit the over is a smart move with a high probability of success.

Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 21.5 Disposals (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When looking at Jayden Short's recent form, it's clear he's been a pivotal figure in Richmond's midfield, consistently racking up disposals. In his last five home games, Short has been a standout performer, averaging a hefty 25.6 disposals per game, well above the 21.5 line set for this matchup. His ability to find space, link up play, and deliver precise kicks has been crucial for the Tigers. Moreover, Short's efficiency with the ball is impressive, boasting a solid 75.5% disposal efficiency rate in his recent home games. With Carlton offering opportunities for intercepts and turnovers, Short is poised to capitalize and surpass the 21.5 disposals threshold comfortably. Considering his recent form and the role he plays in Richmond's setup, backing Jayden Short to go over 21.5 disposals against Carlton seems like a prudent bet with a high probability of success.

Rhyan Mansell (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-196)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in the upcoming clash between the Richmond Tigers and the Carlton Blues, Rhyan Mansell stands out as a prime candidate. Over his last five home games, Mansell has been a consistent threat in front of goal, averaging 0.8 goals per game. His recent form is backed by a solid shot accuracy of 50% and an average of 1.4 shots on goal per game at home. Moreover, Mansell has shown his ability to impact the scoreboard, averaging 4.4 score involvements and 2.8 inside 50s in his last five home appearances. With an impressive hit streak of 6 goals in his last 6 games, including against Carlton, Mansell is primed to continue his scoring ways. The data paints a compelling picture for Mansell to surpass the 0.5 goal mark in this game at the MCG.

Jayden Short (Richmond) Over 20.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When you're eyeing a player prop bet, you want reliability and impact. Jayden Short epitomizes that for the Tigers. Over his last 5 home games, he's been a beacon of consistency, averaging 25.6 disposals with a stellar 75.5% efficiency. Facing Carlton, against whom he averages a solid 20 disposals, Short is poised to control the backline and drive Richmond's attack. His recent form, boasting a 3-game hit streak overall and a 5/6 hit rate at home, suggests he's in the zone. With his knack for intercepts and metres gained, Short is primed to not just hit but exceed the 20.5 disposals line, making this bet a tantalizing prospect for footy punters.

Mykelti Lefau (Richmond) Over 0.5 Goals (-196)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Mykelti Lefau to snag over 0.5 goals in the upcoming Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues clash at the iconic MCG, the numbers paint a promising picture. Lefau's recent form at home shows he's been a consistent threat in front of the big sticks, averaging 1 goal per game over his last five home appearances. With a solid goal accuracy of 60% and an average of 1.4 shots at goal per game in his last five matches, Lefau has been actively involved in Richmond's scoring opportunities. Add in his ability to impact the game with 3.4 score involvements on average, and it's clear that Lefau is poised to make his mark on the scoreboard once again. Betting on Lefau to go over 0.5 goals could prove to be a wise move given his recent strong performances at home.

Mitch McGovern (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-526)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Mitch McGovern snagging goals, the numbers are looking promising. Over his last five away games, he's been averaging a solid 1.6 goals per match, showcasing his ability to consistently hit the scoreboard when playing on the road. His recent form also reveals a hunger for goals, with an average of 3 shots at goal per game, indicating he's not afraid to have a crack when the opportunity arises. Additionally, his inside 50 presence has been notable, averaging 2.4 entries in his last five away outings, giving him ample chances to hit the scoreboard against Richmond. With a line of just 0.5 goals, backing McGovern to split the middle at least once with his sharpshooting accuracy seems like a smart bet to capitalize on his scoring prowess in this clash at the MCG.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
1
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
04 Jul 26 Total Points Under 168.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 4 July 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 6 game picks and 15 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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