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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jack Darling is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 84%, for a model edge of +7.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 8:16AM UTC
AFL

Jack Darling

North Melbourne

+7.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -526 (1.19)
+7.2% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
91.3%
Implied Probability
84.0%
Model Edge
+7.2%
Predicted Value
1.6 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals91.3%—84.0%1.10+7.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Jack Darling (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-526)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, listen up! When it comes to backing a goal scorer, Jack Darling from the North Melbourne Kangaroos is our man for the job. In his last five home games, Darling has been on fire, averaging 2.4 goals per game with a solid 76.0% goal accuracy. Facing off against Melbourne, he's still maintaining a strong average of 1.6 goals per game. With a current hit streak of 2 at home and 3 overall, Darling is in prime form to snag at least one goal in this matchup. His recent performance metrics, including 3.6 shots at goal and 6.4 score involvements per game, indicate he's consistently in the thick of the action. So, when it's time to split the middle, count on Jack Darling to deliver the goods and help you secure that Over 0.5 goals bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 4(75%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs MelbourneO 0.5 -526+7.2% edge
90%hit L10 O 0.5
1.8avg goals L5
Home2.4vs Melbourne1.8Season best3
O 0.590%
O 1.560%
O 2.530%
O 3.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)7 / 10 hit
2120101102

Jack Darling has gone over 0.5 goals in 9 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.8 goals, best 3). Current line: Over 0.5 at -526, model edge +7.2%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Collingwood Magpies Goals 0.5 Over -526 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Port Adelaide Power Goals 0.5 Over -556 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 West Coast Eagles @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals 0.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jack Darling (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jack Darling is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.2% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 18 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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