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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jack Darling is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 91 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 91%, implied 85%, edge +5.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 6:13PM UTC
AFL

Jack Darling

North Melbourne

+5.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -588 (1.17) · $100→$117
+5.8% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 6 Aug, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
91 in 100
Predicted
1.6 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 91.3% · the book's price implies 85.5% · gap +5.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals91.3%85.5%1.10+5.8%

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AI Analysis

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Jack Darling (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Jack Darling stands out as a prime candidate for the upcoming clash between North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs. Despite a slightly quiet patch recently, Darling's historical data and current form suggest a bounce-back is imminent. Over his last five away games, he's been knocking on the door consistently with an average of 2.2 shots at goal and 0.8 goals per game. Facing the Western Bulldogs, against whom he has an even higher average of 1.5 goals over the same period, Darling's hunger to split the middle is palpable. With an eye for the big sticks and the ability to create scoring opportunities, Darling is poised to break through and back Over 0.5 goals confidently.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jack Darling averaged 10.0 disposals, 1.0 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

10.0
Disposals
1.0
Goals
3.2
Marks
2.9
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Jack Darling has cleared 9.5 disposals in 70% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.570%
o10.530%
o11.530%
o13.520%
o14.510%
o15.510%
o17.50%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o21.50%
o22.50%
o23.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Jack Darling is averaging 11.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

11.4
Disp · Overall
2.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Geelong Cats), Jack Darling recorded 10 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Geelong Cats10253
18 Aug 24Carlton7033
10 Aug 24North Melbourne9131
2 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS22197
27 Jul 24Fremantle8032
7 Jul 24Melbourne11162
30 Jun 24Hawthorn6003
23 Jun 24Essendon9232
8 Jun 24North Melbourne7141
1 Jun 24St Kilda10231
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Goals Pending
26 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals Pending

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About This Player

Jack Darling (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jack Darling is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.8% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Western Bulldogs on Thursday 6 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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