Nick Larkey (North Melbourne) Over 1.5 Goals (-147)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Nick Larkey shapes as a genuine value play at 1.68 against the Cats. The model has him projecting 1.9 goals — a full 0.4 clear of the 1.5 line — generating a 3.1% edge over the implied 59.5% probability the odds suggest. That's a meaningful gap worth acting on.
The underlying numbers back it up. At home over his last five, Larkey is averaging 4 shots at goal and 2.6 marks inside 50, giving him the volume to convert multiple times even at his modest 35.2% accuracy. Crucially, against Geelong specifically, his home average lifts to 1.7 goals and his overall L5 against them sits at 1.8 — both comfortably above the line. He's also hit this mark in two of his last three home games. The Cats can be exposed by a physical key forward who gets to his spots, and Larkey's scoring involvement average of 6.8 confirms he's consistently in the game.