Nick Larkey (North Melbourne) Over 1.5 Goals (-164)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Larkey shapes as a genuine chance to go over 1.5 goals at Marvel Stadium, with the model projecting 1.9 — a meaningful gap above the line even if the edge sits at a modest 0.5%. The implied probability of 62.1% at $1.61 feels slightly conservative given what the numbers say about his home form against Geelong specifically: he's averaging 1.7 goals in his last five home games against the Cats and 1.8 across all recent meetings, both comfortably clearing the line on average.
The underlying mechanics support the case too. At home over his last five, Larkey is generating 4 shots at goal per game with 2.6 marks inside 50 — solid volume for a key forward. His goal accuracy sits at 35.2% in those games, meaning the chances are there; he just needs to convert at a reasonable clip. Hit rate of 2/3 at home in the last three adds further texture to a position worth taking.