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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Larkey is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 98%, versus the book's implied 89%, for a model edge of +8.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 6:05PM UTC
AFL

Nick Larkey

North Melbourne

+8.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -833 (1.12) · $100→$112
+8.6% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Barossa Park, Lyndoch, SA · Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr, 2:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
97.9%
Implied Probability
89.3%
Model Edge
+8.6%
Predicted Value
2.1 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals97.9%89.3%1.02+8.6%

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AI Analysis

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Nick Larkey (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-833)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Nick Larkey snagging goals, the stats speak volumes. Over his last five home games, he's been on fire, averaging a stellar 2.8 goals per game with a sharp 71.7% goal accuracy. In his recent matchups against Brisbane, he's bagged an average of 2 goals each time. With an impressive 10-game streak of hitting the scoreboard both at home and overall, Larkey is a reliable goal-kicker. His knack for being in the right place at the right time is evident in his 5.4 score involvements per game. Facing the Lions on home turf, where he's been in red-hot form, Larkey is poised to split the middle and deliver on the Over 0.5 goals line with ease.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Nick Larkey averaged 9.5 disposals, 2.0 goals and 4.3 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

9.5
Disposals
2.0
Goals
4.3
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Hawthorn), Nick Larkey recorded 6 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Hawthorn6051
18 Aug 24Western Bulldogs13121
10 Aug 24West Coast Eagles12131
3 Aug 24Richmond12580
27 Jul 24Geelong Cats7330
21 Jul 24Carlton13291
13 Jul 24Sydney Swans9350
6 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS6353
29 Jun 24Western Bulldogs5021
22 Jun 24Melbourne6031
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Nick Larkey (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Larkey is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.6% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 11 April at Barossa Park, Lyndoch. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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