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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Larkey is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 77%, versus the book's implied 61%, for a model edge of +16.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Nick Larkey

North Melbourne

+16.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -159 (1.63)
+16.0% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Barossa Park, Lyndoch, SA · Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr, 2:35AM
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Model Probability
77.3%
Implied Probability
61.3%
Model Edge
+16.0%
Predicted Value
2.1 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals77.3%61.3%1.29+16.0%

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AI Analysis

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Nick Larkey (North Melbourne) Over 1.5 Goals (-159)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Nick Larkey has been an absolute scoring machine lately, with a blistering average of 2.8 goals in his last 5 home games. His accuracy is top-notch at 71.7%, making him a reliable goalkicker. In his recent matchups against Brisbane, he's been consistently bagging 2 goals per game, showcasing his prowess against this opponent. With an overall hit rate of 7 goals in his last 7 games and a current streak of 4 successful outings at home, Larkey is in red-hot form. His ability to impact the scoresheet is further highlighted by his average of 5.4 score involvements in his recent home performances. The model's prediction of 2.1 goals for Larkey gives us a solid edge and a high implied probability of 61.3%. Considering his recent form and historical success against Brisbane, backing Larkey to snag Over 1.5 goals is a smart play for this upcoming clash at Barossa Park.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.8avg goals recent
Season best5
Goals last 10avg 1.8 · hi 5 · lo 0
0033235110

Nick Larkey has a goals high of 5 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals 1.5 Over -159 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Goals 0.5 Over -833 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Nick Larkey (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Larkey is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.0% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 11 April at Barossa Park, Lyndoch. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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