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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Larkey is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 98%, versus the book's implied 89%, for a model edge of +8.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 2:22PM UTC
AFL

Nick Larkey

North Melbourne

+8.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -833 (1.12) · $100→$112
+8.6% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Barossa Park, Lyndoch, SA · Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr, 2:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
97.9%
Implied Probability
89.3%
Model Edge
+8.6%
Predicted Value
2.1 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals97.9%89.3%1.02+8.6%

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AI Analysis

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Nick Larkey (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-833)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Nick Larkey snagging goals, the stats speak volumes. Over his last five home games, he's been on fire, averaging a stellar 2.8 goals per game with a sharp 71.7% goal accuracy. In his recent matchups against Brisbane, he's bagged an average of 2 goals each time. With an impressive 10-game streak of hitting the scoreboard both at home and overall, Larkey is a reliable goal-kicker. His knack for being in the right place at the right time is evident in his 5.4 score involvements per game. Facing the Lions on home turf, where he's been in red-hot form, Larkey is poised to split the middle and deliver on the Over 0.5 goals line with ease.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.8avg goals recent
Season best5
Goals last 10avg 1.8 · hi 5 · lo 0
0033235110

Nick Larkey has a goals high of 5 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Nick Larkey (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Larkey is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.6% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 11 April at Barossa Park, Lyndoch. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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