Charlie Spargo (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (-123)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Spargo shapes as a genuine value play here at Marvel Stadium. His L5 home games average of 0.8 goals sits comfortably above the 0.5 line, and crucially he's averaging 1.2 shots at goal per home game — enough volume to make this line look conservative. The matchup sweetens the case: in his last five home games against Geelong specifically, Spargo has averaged a goal, suggesting he finds a way to get on the board against this opponent at this venue. The model projects 0.7 goals, generating a 3% edge over the 55.2% implied probability baked into the $1.81 price.
The 2/3 hit rate over his last three home games and an active current streak add further confidence. His goal accuracy at home (33.3%) is lower than his overall mark (53.3%), so he'll need the shots to come — but with 3.6 score involvements per home game, the opportunity is clearly there.