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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lewis Melican is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 62%, the price says 65%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 6, 12:19PM UTC
AFL

Lewis Melican

Sydney Swans

Value call

Lewis Melican (Sydney Swans) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 9.5 that pays $154 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -185 (1.54) · $100→$154
Value call
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 21°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
62 in 100
Predicted
11.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 61.7% · before adjusting for past results 73.5% · the book's price implies 64.9% · gap -3.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.5%61.7%64.9%1.62+8.6%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Lewis Melican Over 9.5 Disposals (-185)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Lewis Melican has been involved in more plays than usual lately, which is great for this bet. He's been getting a lot of disposals, and with Sydney Swans averaging over 57 points before half-time in their last games, he should have plenty of chances to rack them up. Fremantle has also been strong, coming out 28.7 points ahead on average in their last matches. The risk here is that both teams are playing well and can keep the game close. Still, with Melican's recent form and the Swans' scoring, taking the over on 9.5 disposals seems like a solid choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Lewis Melican averaged 8.5 disposals, 0.0 goals and 3.3 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

8.5
Disposals
0.0
Goals
3.3
Marks
1.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Lewis Melican recorded 6 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions6020
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide14071
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS10021
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows10141
16 Aug 24Essendon13020
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs6031
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions7034
13 Jul 24North Melbourne5033
7 Jul 24St Kilda11030
29 Jun 24Fremantle11061
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Lewis Melican (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lewis Melican is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.6% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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