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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lewis Melican is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 73%, implied 72%, edge +1.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 15, 7:41AM UTC
AFL

Lewis Melican

Sydney Swans

+1.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -256 (1.39) · $100→$139
+1.5% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 21°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
11.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.5% · the book's price implies 71.9% · gap +1.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.5%—71.9%1.36+1.5%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Lewis Melican Over 9.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Lewis Melican has been a solid performer lately, and the Sydney Swans are on a roll, winning seven of their last ten games. They've been scoring a lot, averaging over 57 points before half-time in their last twelve matches. With the Swans playing at home, it looks like a great spot for Melican to rack up some disposals, especially since Fremantle has a strong defense. One thing to watch is that both teams have been performing well, with Fremantle also winning seven of their last ten. Still, Melican has shown he can step up, and with the good chance our numbers give for him to hit over 9.5 disposals, I think it's a bet worth considering.

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Pick History & Track Record

Lewis Melican's lines for Fri 18 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 9.5

Lewis Melican's disposals line is 9.5.

Season averages (2024)

Lewis Melican averaged 8.5 disposals, 0.0 goals and 3.3 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

8.5
Disposals
0.0
Goals
3.3
Marks
1.5
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Lewis Melican has cleared 9.5 disposals in 70% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.570%
o10.560%
o11.550%
o12.530%
o13.520%
o14.510%
o15.510%
o16.510%
o17.510%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Lewis Melican is averaging 13.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

13.2
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Lewis Melican recorded 6 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions6020
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide14071
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS10021
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows10141
16 Aug 24Essendon13020
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs6031
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions7034
13 Jul 24North Melbourne5033
7 Jul 24St Kilda11030
29 Jun 24Fremantle11061
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Lewis Melican (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lewis Melican is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.5% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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