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Lewis Melican

Sydney Swans

Value call

Lewis Melican (Sydney Swans) has one live pick today: over 9.5 disposals that pays $185 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
60 in 100
Predicted
11.9 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 59.8% · before adjusting for past results 73.5% · the book's price implies 54.1% · gap +5.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST
Lewis Melican
over 9.5 disposals
Disposals Over 9.5 -118 (1.85) · $100→$185
Value call
HIGHWins about 60 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.50 Odds-118
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Lewis Melican is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 60%, the price says 54%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:22PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 21°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.5%59.8%54.1%1.97+19.5%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Lewis Melican Over 9.5 Disposals (-118)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Lewis Melican has been playing really well lately, and he's been involved in a lot of the action for the Sydney Swans. With the Swans scoring an average of 57.3 points before half-time in their last twelve games, Melican is likely to get plenty of chances to make disposals during the match against Fremantle. Both teams have been on a winning streak, with each winning 7 of their last 10 games, which means this could be a tough battle. The risk is that Fremantle has also been strong, winning by an average of 28.7 points across their last twelve games. Still, Melican has a good chance to go over 9.5 disposals based on his recent performance.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Lewis Melican averaged 8.5 disposals, 0.0 goals and 3.3 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

8.5
Disposals
0.0
Goals
3.3
Marks
1.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Lewis Melican recorded 6 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions6020
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide14071
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS10021
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows10141
16 Aug 24Essendon13020
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs6031
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions7034
13 Jul 24North Melbourne5033
7 Jul 24St Kilda11030
29 Jun 24Fremantle11061
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Lewis Melican (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lewis Melican is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.5% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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