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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jye Caldwell is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 79%, versus the book's implied 78%, for a model edge of +0.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:06PM UTC
AFL

Jye Caldwell

Essendon

+0.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -357 (1.28)
+0.9% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 5 Jul, 5:15AM
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Model Probability
79.0%
Implied Probability
78.1%
Model Edge
+0.9%
Predicted Value
19.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals79.0%—78.1%1.27+0.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Jye Caldwell (Essendon) Over 15.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player in the AFL, you want someone who's in the groove, someone like Jye Caldwell. The Essendon Bombers' rising star has been a consistent force on the field, averaging a healthy 17.8 disposals over his last five home games. What's impressive is his ability to find the ball efficiently, boasting a solid 75.1% disposal efficiency during these matches. Facing St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, where he's been averaging 20 disposals against this opponent, Caldwell seems primed to shine. With a line set at 15.5 disposals, Caldwell's recent form, coupled with his historical performance against the Saints, makes the Over an enticing play. Expect Caldwell to be in the thick of the action, racking up possessions and driving the Bombers forward.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 13.5
13.4avg disposals L5
Home16.8vs GWS GIANTS16Season best32
O 13.570%
O 14.570%
O 15.560%
O 16.540%
O 17.530%
O 18.530%
Game log vs line (O 13.5)avg 25.4 · hi 32 · lo 17
27323023202132173121

Jye Caldwell has gone over 13.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 13.4 disposals, best 32).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 14.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 13.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jye Caldwell (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jye Caldwell is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.9% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers on Sunday 5 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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