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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jye Caldwell is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +2.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:43PM UTC
AFL

Jye Caldwell

Essendon

+2.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -238 (1.42) · $100→$142
+2.3% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 5 Jul, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.8%
Implied Probability
70.4%
Model Edge
+2.3%
Predicted Value
19.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.8%—70.4%1.37+2.3%

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AI Analysis

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Jye Caldwell (Essendon) Over 16.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking ahead to the Essendon Bombers clash against the St Kilda Saints, all eyes are on Jye Caldwell to shine bright on his home turf at Marvel Stadium. Caldwell's recent form paints a promising picture, averaging a solid 17.8 disposals over his last five home games. His ability to find space and impact the play is evident, with an average of 9.2 handballs and 8.6 kicks per game during this stretch. Facing the Saints, Caldwell has historically stepped up his game, averaging 20 disposals in their recent encounters. With the line set at 16.5, Caldwell's consistent ball-winning abilities and strong disposal efficiency of 75.1% make the Over an enticing proposition. Expect Caldwell to continue his midfield dominance, racking up the possessions and driving the Bombers forward.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
25.4avg disposals recent
Season best32
Disposals last 10avg 25.4 · hi 32 · lo 17
27323023202132173121

Jye Caldwell has a disposals high of 32 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 16.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 14.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
05 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending
18 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jye Caldwell (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jye Caldwell is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.3% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers on Sunday 5 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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