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AFL

Xavier Duursma

Essendon

+0.8% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -455 (1.22)
+0.8% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Sat 11 Apr, 3:15AM
Model Probability
82.7%
Implied Probability
82.0%
Model Edge
+0.8%
Predicted Value
18.2 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Xavier Duursma (Essendon) Over 13.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to shine in the disposals department, Xavier Duursma is a prime candidate for Saturday's clash at the Adelaide Oval. Over his last five home games, Duursma has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 18.4 disposals. His ability to find space and impact contests is evident in his 12.8 average uncontested possessions, while maintaining a high disposalefficiency of 85.3%. Facing Melbourne, he has historically lifted his game, averaging 17.5 disposals against them in his previous outings. With a current hit streak of 6 at home and 3 overall, Duursma is in fine form and poised to surpass the 13.5 disposal line comfortably. Expect him to be in the thick of the action, racking up possessions like a seasoned pro.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (14 picks) 50.0% (7/14)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 13.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 14.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 15.5 Over -182 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Xavier Duursma (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 14 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 50.0% (7/14). The latest model pick for Xavier Duursma is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.8% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers on Saturday 11 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.