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AFL

Xavier Duursma

Essendon

+6.5% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -179 (1.56)
+6.5% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Sun 5 Apr, 9:20AM
Model Probability
70.6%
Implied Probability
64.1%
Model Edge
+6.5%
Predicted Value
18.2 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Xavier Duursma (Essendon) Over 15.5 Disposals (-179)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to shine in the disposal department, Xavier Duursma stands out like a beacon in the night sky. The young gun from Essendon has been on a tear lately, averaging a whopping 17.8 disposals in his last five away games. Facing off against the Western Bulldogs, who he's torched for an average of 19.3 disposals in their recent encounters, Duursma is primed to feast on the Marvel Stadium turf. With a solid disposal efficiency of 71.9% and a knack for racking up kicks and handballs, he's a reliable bet to eclipse the 15.5 mark set by the bookies. Duursma's form, consistency, and historical performance against the Bulldogs make him a strong play for hitting the Over on disposals this Sunday.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (13 picks) 46.2% (6/13)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 15.5 Over -179 ✗ MISS
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 13.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 14.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
28 Mar 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
28 Mar 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending
28 Mar 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Essendon Bombers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Xavier Duursma (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 13 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 46.2% (6/13). The latest model pick for Xavier Duursma is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.5% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Western Bulldogs on Sunday 5 April at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.