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The latest Bet Better model pick for Xavier Duursma is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 77%, versus the book's implied 74%, for a model edge of +3.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:43PM UTC
AFL

Xavier Duursma

Essendon

+3.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -278 (1.36) · $100→$136
+3.6% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
77.1%
Implied Probability
73.5%
Model Edge
+3.6%
Predicted Value
18.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals77.1%73.5%1.30+3.6%

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AI Analysis

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Xavier Duursma (Essendon) Over 14.5 Disposals (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to finding value in the player disposals market, Xavier Duursma stands out as a prime target for the Essendon Bombers hosting the Melbourne Demons at Adelaide Oval. Duursma has been a consistent force at home, averaging a stellar 18.4 disposals over his last five games on familiar turf. His ability to find the footy is undeniable, especially against Melbourne, where he has maintained an average of 17.5 disposals in their recent encounters. With a current hit streak of 3 games both overall and at home, Duursma has been a reliable contributor in the midfield. His knack for contested possessions, efficient ball use, and knack for gaining crucial meters make him a strong candidate to surpass the 14.5 disposal line set by the bookies. Bet on Duursma to deliver the goods and snag those overs with confidence.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
18.2avg disposals recent
Season best26
Disposals last 10avg 18.2 · hi 25 · lo 11
13202220151618222511

Xavier Duursma has a disposals high of 26 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Xavier Duursma (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Xavier Duursma is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.6% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers on Saturday 11 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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