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The latest Bet Better model pick for Xavier Duursma is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 64%, for a model edge of +6.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
AFL

Xavier Duursma

Essendon

+6.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -179 (1.56)
+6.5% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
70.6%
Implied Probability
64.1%
Model Edge
+6.5%
Predicted Value
18.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.6%—64.1%1.42+6.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Xavier Duursma (Essendon) Over 15.5 Disposals (-179)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Xavier Duursma is the man to watch in the upcoming clash between Essendon and Melbourne at Adelaide Oval. Duursma has been a midfield maestro for the Bombers, consistently racking up disposals with an average of 18.4 over his last five home games. His precise ball use, boasting an 85.3% disposal efficiency, ensures he maximizes every possession. Moreover, Duursma's recent form against Melbourne indicates he's more than capable of surpassing the 15.5 disposal line, averaging 17.5 disposals in their last five encounters. With a solid track record of hitting his disposal numbers, Duursma presents a reliable option to snag this bet. As the Bombers look to dominate the midfield battle, expect Duursma to be in the thick of the action, making him a prime candidate to eclipse the set line and deliver value for punters.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
18.4avg disposals L5
Home18vs GWS GIANTS13.6Season best26
O 16.540%
O 17.530%
O 18.530%
O 19.520%
O 20.520%
O 21.520%
Game log vs line (O 18.5)avg 18.2 · hi 25 · lo 11
13202220151618222511

Xavier Duursma has gone over 18.5 disposals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 18.4 disposals, best 26).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 15.5 Over -179 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 14.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Melbourne Demons @ Essendon Bombers Disposals 13.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals — — — Pending
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals — — — Pending
05 Apr 26 Essendon Bombers @ Western Bulldogs Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Xavier Duursma (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Xavier Duursma is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.5% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers on Saturday 11 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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