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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brayden Fiorini is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 53%, edge +19.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 26, 3:58PM UTC
AFL

Brayden Fiorini

Essendon

+19.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
+19.2% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Essendon Bombers
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 28 Mar, 8:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
20.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.4% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +19.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.4%53.2%1.38+19.2%

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AI Analysis

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Brayden Fiorini (Essendon) Over 17.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Brayden Fiorini. This Essendon gun has been a midfield maestro, racking up an average of 22.2 disposals over his last five home games. With a contested possession average of 6 and a knack for intercepting at 3.2 per game, Fiorini is a ball magnet. Against North Melbourne, he's been even more prolific, notching up 21 disposals on average in their past encounters. Facing off at Marvel Stadium, in the heart of Melbourne, Fiorini thrives in front of the Bombers faithful. His disposal efficiency at home sits at a solid 76.3%, ensuring he hits his targets more often than not. With a line set at 17.5 disposals, Fiorini's recent form, especially against North Melbourne, makes the Over a tantalizing prospect. Expect him to split the middle and snag those disposals with ease.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Brayden Fiorini averaged 19.0 disposals, 0.5 goals and 4.9 marks per game across 12 games in 2024.

19.0
Disposals
0.5
Goals
4.9
Marks
1.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (2 Aug 24 vs West Coast Eagles), Brayden Fiorini recorded 15 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
2 Aug 24West Coast Eagles15123
8 Jun 24St Kilda16061
2 Jun 24Essendon18060
16 May 24Geelong Cats14061
5 May 24Brisbane Lions23034
28 Apr 24West Coast Eagles14111
21 Apr 24Sydney Swans27172
13 Apr 24Hawthorn22030
7 Apr 24GWS GIANTS15132
24 Mar 24Western Bulldogs21062
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Brayden Fiorini (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brayden Fiorini is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.2% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Essendon Bombers on Saturday 28 March at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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