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AFL

Mitch McGovern

Carlton

Value call

Mitch McGovern (Carlton) has one live pick today: over 9.5 disposals that pays $154 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
60 in 100
Predicted
11.7 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 60.1% · before adjusting for past results 72.2% · the book's price implies 64.9% · gap -4.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST
Mitch McGovern
over 9.5 disposals
Disposals Over 9.5 -185 (1.54) · $100→$154
Value call
HIGHWins about 60 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.40 Odds-185
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Mitch McGovern is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 60%, the price says 65%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 16, 8:00PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.2%60.1%64.9%1.66+7.3%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Mitch McGovern Over 9.5 Disposals (-185)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mitch McGovern needs to get more than 9.5 disposals for this bet to win tonight. He has been showing good form lately, with a strong chance of collecting plenty of the ball in this game against the Geelong Cats. The numbers suggest he is likely to be involved a lot, and he hasn't been losing many contests, which means he should have more opportunities to get those disposals. One thing to keep in mind is that McGovern's past games have sometimes been close, making it tricky. However, with the Cats' style of play, he could find himself in the right spots to rack up those disposals. If he stays active and involved, this bet looks promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Mitch McGovern averaged 16.6 disposals, 0.2 goals and 4.7 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

16.6
Disposals
0.2
Goals
4.7
Marks
1.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Mitch McGovern recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions15051
18 Aug 24West Coast Eagles11010
11 Aug 24Hawthorn21072
3 Aug 24Collingwood21080
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide17034
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS14052
30 Jun 24Richmond18022
21 Jun 24Geelong Cats14052
9 Jun 24Essendon14132
30 May 24Port Adelaide9120
Quick answers:How many disposals does Mitch McGovern average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 9.5 Over -185 ✗ MISS
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 9.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals 9.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Goals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Goals — — — Pending
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Mitch McGovern (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mitch McGovern is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.3% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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