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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mitch McGovern is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 85%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +0.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:18PM UTC
AFL

Mitch McGovern

Carlton

+0.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -556 (1.18) · $100→$118
+0.5% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
85.2%
Implied Probability
84.7%
Model Edge
+0.5%
Predicted Value
1.3 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals85.2%84.7%1.17+0.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Mitch McGovern (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-556)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Mitch McGovern's recent form, he's been a genuine threat in front of the big sticks. Averaging a solid 1 goal over his last 5 away games, he's shown consistent scoring ability. With an impressive 70% goal accuracy in his recent performances, Mitch knows how to make his shots count. Furthermore, his involvement in the attacking plays has been significant, with an average of 3.8 score involvements per game and 2.4 shots on goal. Facing St Kilda, a team he's historically performed well against, Mitch is poised to capitalize on his opportunities. Currently on a hot streak with 6 goals in his last 6 games, including 2 consecutive games hitting the scoreboard away from home, Mitch McGovern is primed to snag at least one goal in this matchup. Betting on him to go over 0.5 goals seems like a smart play given his recent track record and form.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 1.5
1.6avg goals L5
Away1vs St Kilda0.3Season best1
O 0.570%
O 1.550%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 0.2 · hi 1 · lo 0
1100000000

Mitch McGovern has gone over 1.5 goals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.6 goals, best 1).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -556 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Mitch McGovern (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mitch McGovern is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.5% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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