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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mitch McGovern is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 52 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 52%, implied 72%, edge +0.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 7:28PM UTC
AFL

Mitch McGovern

Carlton

+0.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -256 (1.39) · $100→$139
+0.5% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 29 Aug, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
11.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.4% · the book's price implies 71.9% · gap +0.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.4%52.3%71.9%1.91+0.5%

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AI Analysis

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Mitch McGovern (Carlton) Over 9.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Mitch McGovern to go over 9.5 disposals in the upcoming clash against Melbourne, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Over his last five away games, Mitch has been a steady contributor, averaging 12.2 disposals, comfortably surpassing the line. His recent form showcases his ability to find the footy, particularly against Melbourne, where he averages 19.3 disposals in their matchups. With a solid contested possessions average of 4 and an impressive disposal efficiency of 75.7%, Mitch is primed to make an impact. Add in his current hit streak of 5 away games and 4 overall, and we have a player in form. The data suggests Mitch McGovern is set to be a key figure in the Blues' midfield battle, making the over 9.5 disposals a tantalizing prospect for punters.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Mitch McGovern averaged 16.6 disposals, 0.2 goals and 4.7 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

16.6
Disposals
0.2
Goals
4.7
Marks
1.6
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Mitch McGovern has cleared 9.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.590%
o10.580%
o11.540%
o12.520%
o13.510%
o14.510%
o15.50%
o16.50%
o17.50%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Mitch McGovern is averaging 11.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

11.4
Disp · Overall
1.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Mitch McGovern recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions15051
18 Aug 24West Coast Eagles11010
11 Aug 24Hawthorn21072
3 Aug 24Collingwood21080
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide17034
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS14052
30 Jun 24Richmond18022
21 Jun 24Geelong Cats14052
9 Jun 24Essendon14132
30 May 24Port Adelaide9120
Quick answers:How many disposals does Mitch McGovern average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals 9.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -556 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Mitch McGovern (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mitch McGovern is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.5% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 29 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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