Jordan Dawson (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-196)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jordan Dawson is one of the more reliable goal-kickers in this market, and the numbers back that up — he's cleared the 0.5 goals line in 14 of his last 17 games, an 82% hit rate that comfortably exceeds the 66.2% implied probability baked into the $1.51 price. The model projects him at 0.9 goals for this contest, sitting right on the line, and his L5 away form is genuinely encouraging: 0.8 goals per game away from home, 1.4 shots at goal, and a 40% goal accuracy in those fixtures. He's averaging 5.6 inside 50s in away games too, which means he's getting into the right areas consistently. The edge here is thin at just 0.1%, so this isn't a max-bet situation, but Dawson's sustained hit rate against a line the market is arguably underpricing makes it a legitimate play worth including.