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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jordan Dawson is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +0.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:06PM UTC
AFL

Jordan Dawson

Adelaide Crows

+0.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -256 (1.39)
+0.0% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 9:40AM
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Model Probability
72.0%
Implied Probability
71.9%
Model Edge
+0.0%
Predicted Value
1.0 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals72.0%71.9%1.39+0.0%

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AI Analysis

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Jordan Dawson (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Jordan Dawson and his goal-scoring prowess on the road. In his last five away games, Dawson has been a consistent threat in front of the big sticks, averaging a tidy 1.2 goals per game. With an impressive 66.7% goal accuracy and an average of 1.8 shots at goal per match in away fixtures, the lad knows how to find the scoring opportunities. Facing off against the Sydney Swans, Dawson has a strong history of bagging goals, averaging 1 goal per game in his last five matchups against them away from home. Additionally, boasting a current hit streak of 1 on away games and an overall hit rate of 12/13 in his last 13 games, the signs point to Dawson snagging at least one goal at the SCG. Backing him to split the middle over 0.5 goals seems like a smart footy flutter for this clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
24avg disposals recent
Season best32
Disposals last 10avg 24 · hi 32 · lo 16
32172416262027272625

Jordan Dawson has a disposals high of 32 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.3avg goals recent
Season best2
Goals last 10avg 0.3 · hi 1 · lo 0
0100000101

Jordan Dawson has a goals high of 2 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Jordan Dawson (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jordan Dawson is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.0% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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