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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jordan Dawson is Over 21.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 66%, for a model edge of +4.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:19PM UTC
AFL

Jordan Dawson

Adelaide Crows

+4.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 21.5 -196 (1.51) · $100→$151
+4.5% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Thu 23 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
70.7%
Implied Probability
66.2%
Model Edge
+4.5%
Predicted Value
24.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.7%66.2%1.41+4.5%

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AI Analysis

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Jordan Dawson (Adelaide Crows) Over 21.5 Disposals (-196)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to hitting those disposal numbers, Jordan Dawson isn't one to shy away. Looking at his recent form, he's been a midfield maestro, consistently racking up possessions with an average of 23.8 disposals in his last five home games. What's more impressive is his efficiency, boasting a solid 67.1% disposalefficiency. Against Collingwood, he's been even more potent, averaging 21.4 disposals in their recent encounters. With a model prediction of 24.2 disposals and a current hit streak, Dawson seems poised to continue his disposal dominance at Adelaide Oval. So, backing Dawson to go over 21.5 disposals against the Magpies is not just a hunch; it's a calculated move based on his recent performances and matchup history.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
24avg disposals recent
Season best32
Disposals last 10avg 24 · hi 32 · lo 16
32172416262027272625

Jordan Dawson has a disposals high of 32 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.3avg goals recent
Season best2
Goals last 10avg 0.3 · hi 1 · lo 0
0100000101

Jordan Dawson has a goals high of 2 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 21.5 Over -196 ✗ MISS
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 20.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 19.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals Pending

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About This Player

Jordan Dawson (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jordan Dawson is Over 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.5% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows on Thursday 23 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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