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Model picks & player props
Washington Nationals
VS
St. Louis Cardinals

Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 25, 11:57AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Busch Stadium, St. Louis
Outdoor
Thu 10 Jul 2025, 11:45PM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 6.5 (Team Total Runs)
For Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals (MLB), model win probability 90.8%, fair odds 1.10, book price -345, model edge +13.3%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 10 Jul 2025, 11:45PM at Busch Stadium.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total
Under
8.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Washington Nationals

  • Brad Lord RPOut
  • Trevor Williams SPOut
  • Jake Irvin SPOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Richard Lovelady RPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut
  • Josiah Gray SPOut

Probable pitcher

Carson Palmquist SP

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Ramon Urias 3BOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut
  • JoJo Romero RPOut

Probable pitcher

Dustin May SP
Availability updated Jul 25, 12:15AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSt. Louis CardinalsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Washington Nationals L54-1

St. Louis Cardinals moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Run LineSt. Louis Cardinals run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Washington Nationals L54-1

St. Louis Cardinals spread form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington NationalsNo line posted

St. Louis Cardinals total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSt. Louis Cardinals team totalNo line posted
1.9implied team total
L5 RF1.8L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Washington Nationals L54-1

St. Louis Cardinals team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.8 runs/gm.

Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals — model preview

<p>Deep dive into St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals stats and odds.</p>

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals : Over 8 Total Runs (-217)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The rationale for betting on 'Over 8' total runs in the St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals game is supported by both teams' recent scoring and defensive records. The Cardinals have averaged 4.2 runs per game in their last five games, while the Nationals have averaged 2.3, adding up to a total of 6.5. However, the Cardinals have also allowed an average of 4.4 runs in their recent games, while the Nationals have conceded 3.7. If both teams continue this trend, the total runs could easily exceed eight. Moreover, the Cardinals' batting average at home is higher than their overall average, suggesting they perform better offensively on home turf. The Nationals' away batting average is lower, but their pitching strikeout average is higher, which could lead to more scoring opportunities for the Cardinals. These factors combined make the 'Over 8' bet a solid choice.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-323)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'Over 7.5' for Total Runs in the St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals game is primarily based on the recent offensive and defensive performance of both teams. The Cardinals have been scoring an average of 4.2 runs in their last five games and allowing an average of 4.4 runs. On the other hand, the Nationals, despite a lower scoring average of 2.3 runs, have been allowing an average of 3.7 runs. These averages suggest a combined score of over 7.5 runs. Additionally, the Cardinals' batting performance at home has been strong, with an average of 8.4 hits, which should contribute to higher scoring. Finally, the Cardinals' record against the Nationals (4-1) indicates their ability to score against this specific opponent. Overall, the data suggests a high likelihood of a combined score exceeding 7.5 runs.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-345)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The 'Over 7.5' bet for the Total Runs market in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Washington Nationals is a promising choice due to a combination of offensive and defensive factors. The Cardinals' recent average runs scored, both overall and at home, combined with the Nationals' average runs scored, exceed the 7.5 line. Furthermore, the Cardinals have shown strong batting performance at home, with an average of 8.4 hits, which could contribute to high scoring. On the defensive side, both teams have been allowing a considerable amount of runs, with the Cardinals allowing an average of 4.4 runs overall and the Nationals allowing 3.7 runs. This implies that both teams' defenses might be vulnerable, potentially leading to a high-scoring game. Therefore, the data supports the 'Over 7.5' bet.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

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DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 10 July 2025 at Busch Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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