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Model picks & player props
St. Louis Cardinals
VS
San Francisco Giants

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 15, 5:06PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Oracle Park, San Francisco
Outdoor
Thu 25 Sep 2025, 1:45AM
4
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: San Francisco Giants (Moneyline)
The model graded 4 markets for St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $167 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 70.1%, fair odds 1.43, book price -149, model edge +10.2%. Tip-off Thu 25 Sep 2025, 1:45AM at Oracle Park.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 660 of 1,307 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 15
Under 8
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $188
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
San Francisco Giants
+ 3 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
San Francisco GiantsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Ramon Urias 3BOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut

Probable pitcher

Matthew Liberatore SP

San Francisco Giants

  • Willy Adames SSDay-to-day
  • Marcelo Mayer 2BOut
  • Matt Chapman 3BOut
  • Trevor McDonald SPOut
  • Joel Peguero RPOut
  • Matt Gage RPOut
  • Daniel Susac COut
  • Harrison Bader CFOut
  • Jesus Rodriguez COut
  • Casey Schmitt LFOut
  • Rowan Wick RPOut
  • Hayden Birdsong RPOut
  • Randy Rodriguez RPOut
  • Jose Butto RPOut

Probable pitcher

Landen Roupp SP
Availability updated Aug 15, 2:15AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSan Francisco GiantsNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.2Home L53-2vs St. Louis Cardinals L54-1

San Francisco Giants moneyline form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Run LineSan Francisco Giants run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.2Home L53-2vs St. Louis Cardinals L54-1

San Francisco Giants spread form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis CardinalsNo line posted

San Francisco Giants total runs form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSan Francisco Giants team totalNo line posted
0.8runs we expect
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.2Home L53-2vs St. Louis Cardinals L54-1

San Francisco Giants team total runs form: last five 3-2, 0.8 runs/gm.

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants — what the model found

Our model graded 4 betting markets for St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants — 4 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

4
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 4 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 3 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants — recent results

San Francisco Giants have won 2 of their last 5 games; St. Louis Cardinals have won 3 of their last 5.

San Francisco Giants — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–1HOUHome
L1–2HOUHome
L3–6HOUHome
L1–3DETHome
W5–2DETHome
St. Louis Cardinals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L0–3CHCAway
W7–1PHIHome
W2–0PHIHome
L5–6PHIHome
W7–4COLHome

Who’s out or in doubt

16 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

San Francisco Giants
PlayerStatus
Willy Adames SSDAY-TO-DAY
Marcelo Mayer 2BOUT
Matt Chapman 3BOUT
Trevor McDonald SPOUT
Joel Peguero RPOUT
Matt Gage RPOUT
Daniel Susac COUT
Harrison Bader CFOUT
St. Louis Cardinals
PlayerStatus
Ramon Urias 3BOUT
Max Rajcic RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants — model preview

Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals. Includes analysis on key players like Ivan Herrera. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals stats and odds.

Ivan Herrera (STL) Under 1.5 Hits (-244)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The rationale for betting on Ivan Herrera for Under 1.5 in the Batter Hits market is based on his recent performance data. His overall hits average for the last five games is 0.8, significantly lower than the line of 1.5. Even when playing away, his hits average is only 1.2. This suggests that he is not consistently hitting above the line. His plate appearances (PA) averages also support this, with 3.2 overall and 4 when playing away. Though his stats are slightly better against the Giants, they're still not consistently above 1.5. Additionally, his current hit streak is only at 2, indicating a lack of sustained high performance. All these statistics point towards Herrera not achieving more than 1.5 hits in the upcoming game, making the Under 1.5 bet a statistically sound choice.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Cardinals vs Giants, or as Giants vs Cardinals. The most recent game between them was Thursday 25 September 2025 at Oracle Park. The model has generated 4 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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