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Model picks & player props
St. Louis Cardinals
VS
San Francisco Giants

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 25, 11:56AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Oracle Park, San Francisco
Outdoor
Thu 25 Sep 2025, 1:45AM
4
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: San Francisco Giants (Moneyline)
For St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants (MLB), model win probability 70.1%, fair odds 1.43, book price -149, model edge +10.2%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Thu 25 Sep 2025, 1:45AM at Oracle Park.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
San Francisco Giants
+ 3 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
San Francisco GiantsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St. Louis CardinalsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Ramon Urias 3BOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut
  • JoJo Romero RPOut

Probable pitcher

Dustin May SP

San Francisco Giants

  • Drew Cavanaugh CDay-to-day
  • Trevor McDonald SPOut
  • Harrison Bader CFOut
  • Matt Chapman 3BOut
  • Victor Bericoto RFOut
  • Jonah Cox CFOut
  • Matt Gage RPOut
  • Joel Peguero RPOut
  • Rowan Wick RPOut
  • Hayden Birdsong RPOut
  • Randy Rodriguez RPOut
  • Jose Butto RPOut

Probable pitcher

Logan Webb SP
Availability updated Jul 25, 2:15AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSan Francisco GiantsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA2.6Home L54-1vs St. Louis Cardinals L52-3Win rec4-7

San Francisco Giants moneyline form: last five 2-3, 2.8 runs/gm.

Run LineSan Francisco Giants run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA2.6Home L54-1vs St. Louis Cardinals L52-3

San Francisco Giants spread form: last five 2-3, 2.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis CardinalsNo line posted

San Francisco Giants total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSan Francisco Giants team totalNo line posted
2.5implied team total
L5 RF2.8L5 RA2.6Home L54-1vs St. Louis Cardinals L52-3

San Francisco Giants team total runs form: last five 2-3, 2.8 runs/gm.

St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top MLB betting picks for San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals. Includes analysis on key players like Ivan Herrera. Discover MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals stats and odds.</p>

Ivan Herrera (STL) Under 1.5 Hits (-244)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The rationale for betting on Ivan Herrera for Under 1.5 in the Batter Hits market is based on his recent performance data. His overall hits average for the last five games is 0.8, significantly lower than the line of 1.5. Even when playing away, his hits average is only 1.2. This suggests that he is not consistently hitting above the line. His plate appearances (PA) averages also support this, with 3.2 overall and 4 when playing away. Though his stats are slightly better against the Giants, they're still not consistently above 1.5. Additionally, his current hit streak is only at 2, indicating a lack of sustained high performance. All these statistics point towards Herrera not achieving more than 1.5 hits in the upcoming game, making the Under 1.5 bet a statistically sound choice.

Victor Scott II (STL) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-556)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The statistical data provided suggests that betting on Victor Scott II for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a solid choice. In his last five games, Scott II's overall stolen bases average is 0.2, both at home and away. This indicates that he is less likely to steal a base in any given game. Moreover, his stolen base average against the Giants is even lower, standing at zero. His current hit streak, both overall and away, is only one, suggesting he isn't in a strong batting form currently. Additionally, his average caught stealing (Cs) rate is zero, implying that he isn't taking the risk to steal bases. All these factors combined indicate that there is a high probability that Scott II will not steal a base in the upcoming game, making the Under 0.5 bet a sensible choice.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Thursday 25 September 2025 at Oracle Park. The model has generated 4 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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